Influence of Vertical Shear of Basic Tangential Wind on the Development and Maintenance of Typhoon

By using a linear symmetric Conditional Instability of Second Kind (CISK) model containing basic flow, we study the interactions between basic flow and mesoscale disturbances in typhoon. The result shows that in the early stage of typhoon formation, the combined action of vertical shear of basic flow at low level and CISK impels the disturbances to grow rapidly and to move toward the center of typhoon. The development of disturbances, likewise, influences on typhoon’s development and structure. Analysis of the mesoscale disturbances’ development and propagation indicates that the maximum wind region moves toward the center, wind velocity increases, and circulation features of an eye appear. Similarly, when a typhoon decays, the increase of low-level vertical wind shear facilitates the development of mesoscale disturbances. In turn, these mesoscale disturbances will provide typhoon with energy and make the typhoon intensify again. Therefore, it can be said that typhoon has the renewable or self-repair function.     

黄土高原一次β中尺度大暴雨特征及成因分析

利用NCEP／NCAR逐日6h分析资料和常规观测资料,分析了2011年2月25日一28日山西连续降雪天气过程（以下简称2．25降雪）。①2．25降雪过程经历了三个阶段：2月25日为回流降雪阶段,26日一27日为倒槽冷锋与回流降雪共同影响降雪阶段,28日为低空切变线影响降雪阶段。②2．25降雪过程涵盖了华北地区大到暴雪的三个类型：回流类降雪、倒槽冷锋类降雪、低空切变线类降雪。③通过温湿场分析得出,对于低空切变线类降雪,对流层中层的湿核对降雪的开始有一定的指示意义。降雪未开始之前对流层中层有湿核,随着时间的推移,湿核向低层扩展,整个对流层中低层变为高湿区,降雪开始。当对流层中层变为干区,并向低层扩展,降雪过程结束。对于回流类降雪,低层回流对回流降雪起到冷垫的作用。④通过涡度场分析得出,对流层低层的负绝对涡度中心对其东侧的降水有指示意义,如果其东侧对流层低层配合有正涡度核,降雪强度较大,维持时间较长。⑤地面层出现的负绝对涡度中心说明近地面层有小高压系统的存在,这是因为低层回流冷垫作用形成的孤立小高压体。⑥28日降雪维持机制是条件性对称不稳定。     

Mapping and assessing crop diversity in the irrigated Fergana Valley,Uzbekistan

Crop diversity (e.g. the number of agricultural crop types and the level of evenness in area distribution) in the agricultural systems of arid Central Asia has recently been increased mainly to achieve food security of the rural population, however, not throughout the irrigation system. Site-specific factors that promote or hamper crop diversification after the dissolvent of the Soviet Union have hardly been assessed yet. While tapping the potential of remote sensing, the objective was to map and explain spatial patterns of current crop diversity by the example of the irrigated agricultural landscapes of the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan. Multi-temporal Landsat and RapidEye satellite data formed the basis for creating annual and multi-annual crop maps for 2010–2012 while using supervised classifications. Applying the Simpson index of diversity (SID) to circular buffers with radii of 1.5 and 5 km elucidated the spatial distribution of crop diversity at both the local and landscape spatial scales. A variable importance analysis, rooted in the conditional forest algorithm, investigated potential environmental and socio-economic drivers of the spatial patterns of crop diversity. Overall accuracy of the annual crop maps ranged from 0.84 to 0.86 whilst the SID varied between 0.1 and 0.85. The findings confirmed the existence of areas under monocultures as well as of crop diverse patches. Higher crop diversity occurred in the more distal parts of the irrigation system and sparsely settled areas, especially due to orchards. In contrast, in water-secure and densely settled areas, cotton-wheat rotations dominated due to the state interventions in crop cultivation. Distances to irrigation infrastructure, settlements and the road network influenced crop diversity the most. Spatial explicit information on crop diversity per se has the potential to support policymaking and spatial planning towards crop diversification. Driver analysis as exemplified at the study region in Uzbekistan can help reaching the declared policy to increase crop diversity throughout the country and even beyond.     

从234Th的固/液分配看海洋胶体的作用

1994—1995年期间,利用β计数法实测了南沙群岛海域、南海东北部海域、厦门湾塔角附近海域和九龙江河口区共计116份海水样品中溶解态与颗粒态234Th的放射性比活度。结果表明,颗粒态234Th占总34Th的份额大小顺序为：九龙江河口区＞厦门海塔角附近海域＞南沙海域。南海东北部海域。234Th的条件分配系数Kd介于1．1×104—20×106dm3／kg之间,平均为2．2×105dm3／kdKd与总悬浮颗粒物含量（7SAN呈负相关关系：lg（Kd）＝－0．59·lg（TSM）＋5．67,这一“颗粒物浓度效应”可归因于海洋胶体物质的存在。由上述关系获得4个研究海区胶体浓度与悬浮颗粒物浓度的函数关系：Cc＝f（TSM0．59）。     

Application of advanced system identification technique to extract roll damping from model tests in order to accurately predict roll motions

In this paper our previously developed advanced system identification technique [1] has been applied to extract the frequency dependent roll damping from a series of model tests run in irregular (random) waves. It is shown that this methodology accurately models the roll damping which can then be used to produce accurate predictions of the ships roll motion. These roll motion predictions are not only more accurate than the potential flow predictions but more accurate than potential flow models corrected using either empirical prediction methods [2] and even those corrected using roll damping obtained from free decay sallying experiments. This methodology has the potential to significantly improve roll motion prediction during full scale at sea trails of vessels in order to dramatically improve safety of critical operations such as helicopter landing or ship to ship cargo transfer.     

A procedure for simulating synthetic accelerograms compatible with correlated and conditional probabilistic response spectra

The modeling of seismic load is a major topic that has to be addressed thoroughly in the framework of performance based seismic analysis and design. In this paper, a simple procedure for simulating artificial earthquake accelerograms matching the statistical distribution of response spectra, as given by median ground motion prediction equations, the standard deviation and correlation coefficients, is proposed. The approach follows the general ideas of the (natural) ground motion selection algorithms proposed by Baker [4] and Wang [43] but using simulated (artificial) “spectrum-compatible” accelerograms. This allows to simulate spectrum-compatible accelerograms featuring variability similar to the one of recorded accelerograms when the match of median and ±1 standard-deviation response spectra is imposed by the regulator. The procedure is illustrated by an application to the NGA ground motion data and models.     

Site-specific and spatially-distributed ground-motion intensity estimation in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes

This paper presents site-specific and spatially-distributed ground-motion intensity estimates which have been utilized in the aftermath of the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes. The methodology underpinning the ground motion intensity estimation makes use of both prediction models for ground motion intensity and its within-event spatial correlation. A key benefit of the methodology is that the estimated ground motion intensity at a given location is not a single value but a distribution of values. The distribution is comprised of both a mean and standard deviation, with the standard deviation being a function of the distance to nearby observations at strong motion stations.The methodology is illustrated for two applications. Firstly, maps of conditional peak ground acceleration (PGA) have been developed for the major events in the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which among other things, have been utilized for assessing liquefaction triggering susceptibility of land in residential areas. Secondly, the conditional distribution of response spectral ordinates is obtained at the location of the Canterbury Television building (CTV), which catastrophically collapsed in the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The conditional response spectra provide insight for the selection of ground motion records for use in forensic seismic response analyses of important structures at locations where direct recordings are absent.     

断层的大地震复发概率研究

本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础, 以地震孕育过程为研究主线, 计算了中国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率, 进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。 结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带、 阿尔金断裂带、 东昆仑断裂带、 小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带, 反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区, 应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。     

Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

基于家庭的购物行为时、空间 决策模型及其应用

基于家庭的购物行为决策的概念模型,利用2007年北京市活动日志调查的第一手数据,建立购物出发时间决策和购物目的地决策的条件Logit模型,并探讨其在相关政策评估和预测上的应用。结果发现:家庭内部相互作用和决策层面要素对购物时、空间决策的影响比较显著;早晚高峰出行的人群具有不同的社会经济属性和购物行为属性;居民休息日的购物活动集中在离家6km以内或者高密度的商业中心;影响购物目的地选择的因素更多是购物地距离,而非商业密度。通过模拟发现,土地混合利用的政策可能会增加高峰期的交通拥挤程度,而商业设施分散布局可能更有利于城市交通状况的改善和居民日常生活质量的提升。