地下水位升降对某场地地基土承载力的影响

通过工程实例，分析了对比地下水位升降对地基土的物理力学性质的影响，定量地总结了地下水位上升对地基土承载力的削弱情况。     

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.     

刍议国际地震保险投保率

地震灾难带来的损失日益增加的问题，让保险业至今难以应对。地震发生频率低、损失巨大而保险公司的承保能力又十分有限，加之，社会公众的投保意识薄弱，造成地震保险投保率过低。从地震灾情入手，介绍了国际地震保险开展情况，剖析了地震保险投保率过低的原因，并针对问题提出了解决措施。     

Amoeboid olivine aggregates and related objects in carbonaceous chondrites: records of nebular and asteroid processes

Amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs) are the most common type of refractory inclusions in CM, CR, CH, CV, CO, and ungrouped carbonaceous chondrites Acfer 094 and Adelaide; only one AOA was found in the CB_b chondrite Hammadah al Hamra 237 and none were observed in the CB_a chondrites Bencubbin, Gujba, and Weatherford. In primitive (unaltered and unmetamorphosed) carbonaceous chondrites, AOAs consist of forsterite (Fa_<2), Fe, Ni-metal (5-12 wt% Ni), and Ca, Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) composed of Al-diopside, spinel, anorthite, and very rare melilite. Melilite is typically replaced by a fine-grained mixture of spinel, Al-diopside, and ±anorthite; spinel is replaced by anorthite. About 10% of AOAs contain low-Ca pyroxene replacing forsterite. Forsterite and spinel are always ¹⁶O-rich (δ^17,18O∼−40‰ to −50‰), whereas melilite, anorthite, and diopside could be either similarly ¹⁶O-rich or ¹⁶O-depleted to varying degrees; the latter is common in AOAs from altered and metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites such as some CVs and COs. Low-Ca pyroxene is either ¹⁶O-rich (δ^17,18O∼−40‰) or ¹⁶O-poor (δ^17,18O∼0‰). Most AOAs in CV chondrites have unfractionated (∼2-10×CI) rare-earth element patterns. AOAs have similar textures, mineralogy and oxygen isotopic compositions to those of forsterite-rich accretionary rims surrounding different types of CAIs (compact and fluffy Type A, Type B, and fine-grained, spinel-rich) in CV and CR chondrites. AOAs in primitive carbonaceous chondrites show no evidence for alteration and thermal metamorphism. Secondary minerals in AOAs from CR, CM, and CO, and CV chondrites are similar to those in chondrules, CAIs, and matrices of their host meteorites and include phyllosilicates, magnetite, carbonates, nepheline, sodalite, grossular, wollastonite, hedenbergite, andradite, and ferrous olivine.Our observations and a thermodynamic analysis suggest that AOAs and forsterite-rich accretionary rims formed in ¹⁶O-rich gaseous reservoirs, probably in the CAI-forming region(s), as aggregates of solar nebular condensates originally composed of forsterite, Fe, Ni-metal, and CAIs. Some of the CAIs were melted prior to aggregation into AOAs and experienced formation of Wark-Lovering rims. Before and possibly after the aggregation, melilite and spinel in CAIs reacted with SiO and Mg of the solar nebula gas enriched in ¹⁶O to form Al-diopside and anorthite. Forsterite in some AOAs reacted with ¹⁶O-enriched SiO gas to form low-Ca pyroxene. Some other AOAs were either reheated in ¹⁶O-poor gaseous reservoirs or coated by ¹⁶O-depleted pyroxene-rich dust and melted to varying degrees, possibly during chondrule formation. The most extensively melted AOAs experienced oxygen isotope exchange with ¹⁶O-poor nebular gas and may have been transformed into magnesian (Type I) chondrules. Secondary mineralization and at least some of the oxygen isotope exchange in AOAs from altered and metamorphosed chondrites must have resulted from alteration in the presence of aqueous solutions after aggregation and lithification of the chondrite parent asteroids.     

地基微波辐射计遥感人工触发闪电的观测研究

为了深入研究雷电产生的微波热辐射特征,从2016年初夏开始利用地基微波辐射计在中国气象局雷电野外科学实验基地开展了连续4年的观测实验,根据雷电热效应的特征,制定了观测方案,并为地基微波辐射计设置了“引雷观测模式”。结果表明,地基微波辐射计具有对雷电热效应产生响应的能力。2017—2019年,辐射计一共成功捕获了30次人工触发闪电,观测效率逐年增长,平均为71.4 %;微波亮温脉冲幅度的最大值约125 K。结合其中28次触发事件的雷电流数据,分析了亮温脉冲幅度和雷电流积分量之间的相关性,并发现了最大亮温脉冲幅度与总电流作用积分之间可能存在指数关系。根据亮温观测数据估算了雷电热效应的持续时间,平均约0.5 s,其中25次触发事件的雷电流热效应持续时间与雷电流持续时间变化较为一致,相关系数约0.73。     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

Experimental study and constitutive modelling of elasto‐plastic damage in heat‐treated mortar

This study investigates the effect of a heat‐treatment upon the thermo‐mechanical behaviour of a model cement‐based material, i.e. a normalized mortar, with a (w/c) ratio of 0.5. First, a whole set of varied experimental results is provided, in order to either identify or validate a thermo‐mechanical constitutive model, presented in the second paper part. Experimental responses of both hydraulic and mechanical behaviour are given after different heating/cooling cycling levels (105, 200, 300, 400^°C). The reference state, used for comparison purposes, is taken after mass stabilization at 60^°C. Typical uniaxial compression tests are provided, and original triaxial deviatoric compressive test responses are also given. Hydraulic behaviour is identified simultaneously to triaxial deviatoric compressive loading through gas permeability K_gas assessment. K_gas is well correlated with volumetric strain evolution: gas permeability increases hugely when ε_v testifies of a dilatant material behaviour, instead of contractile from the test start. Finally, the thermo‐mechanical model, based on a thermodynamics approach, is identified using the experimental results on uniaxial and triaxial deviatoric compression. It is also positively validated at residual state for triaxial deviatoric compression, but also by using a different stress path in lateral extension, which is at the origin of noticeable plasticity. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of the zone of weakness on dip angle and shear heating of subducted slabs

We study the importance of the zones of weakness and the pattern of downgoing flow in steady-state models of subducting lithosphere, which interacts mechanically and thermally with the ambient mantle. The non-linear system of governing equations consists of (i) the momentum equation in stream function formulation and (ii) the steady-state heat transfer equation including conduction and advection of heat and dissipation. A finite element method has been applied to this system. We consider the viscosity to be a non-linear function of both the temperature and the stream function. In steady-state two-dimensional (2D) flow, the stream function isolines follow material trajectories. They are used to follow the top of the subducting slab, which because of its possible increase in water content, is assumed to have a lower viscosity. The zone of weakness has been thus obtained in the self-consistent fashion since the stream function as well as the temperature are the output from our modeling and no a priori assumptions about the shape of the bending lithosphere are taken into account. It was shown that several orders decrease of viscosity in the zone of weakness is required to obtain the dip angle of about 45°. If the decrease of viscosity is not sufficient enough, the subducted slab either sinks almost vertically or does not exhibit a plate-like behavior. We have also demonstrated that shear heating can unrealistically increase at the zone of weakness for fast subductions if decrease of viscosity is underestimated.