Climate driven changes in subtidal kelp forest communities in NW Spain

Reconstructions suggest a massive decline of nearly 1400 ha of kelp forest in North Western Spain in 2007. In line with global rising temperatures, we hypothesized that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) surpassed a lethal threshold for kelp. We examined whether changes in SST correlated to the proposed decline in kelp forest. All investigated SST characteristics suggested to affect kelp abundance increased significantly during the past thirty years, reaching extreme values during the last decade. In addition over the past two decades, the landscape formerly dominated by both cold and warm temperate canopy forming and understory species changed to one dominated by warm temperate understory species, resulting in a loss of vertical community structure. Fisheries landing data of kelp associated species was used to support the suggested change in kelp abundance. Subsequent recovery of the kelp appears to be occurring in deeper waters.     

新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.     

中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性

冻土的脆弱性是指冻土对气候变化的脆弱性,是冻土易受气候变化,尤其是温度变化不利影响的程度. 研究冻土对气候变化的脆弱性是提高对自然生态系统、工程系统、生态-社会-经济系统对冻土变化影响的脆弱性的认知,科学适应冻土变化诸种影响的前提和基础. 基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可操作性原则,以暴露度、敏感性与适应能力为标准,遴选构建了我国冻土脆弱性评价指标体系. 借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冻土脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了冻土的脆弱性. 依据自然分类法,将冻土脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5级. 结果表明：总体上我国冻土以中度脆弱为主,但青藏高原多年冻土对气候变化尤为脆弱;冻土脆弱性具有显著的地域分布特点,青藏高原、西部高山、东北多年冻土区脆弱性相对较高,季节冻土区相对较低. 与季节冻土相比,多年冻土对气候变化更脆弱. 在当前升温幅度条件下,冻土脆弱程度主要取决于冻土的地形暴露与冻土对气候变化的适应能力.     

Rapid estimation of earthquake loss based on instrumental seismic intensity: design and realization

As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M _L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.     

东营市湿地资源分布及地质环境脆弱性评价

通过遥感解译、水土样测试、环境地质调查,从地表水、坑塘水、平原水库、浅层地下水、土壤环境的质量评价入手,查明了东营市湿地的分布现状,分析湿地演变与地质环境条件之间的相关性,构建东营湿地地质环境脆弱性评价体系并进行了脆弱性评价,为促进湿地生态系统与区域地质环境协调发展提供科学依据。     

基于推覆分析的RC框架地震倒塌易损性预测

基于倒塌率的结构倒塌易损性分析是目前评价结构抗倒塌能力最合理的方法.但是,目前基于增量动力分析(IDA)的倒塌率分析方法,工作量和实施难度大,很难直接用于工程设计,因此有必要研究便于工程应用的新方法.本文基于18个典型多层RC框架结构的IDA倒塌率分析和静力推覆分析,发现RC框架在大震下的倒塌率及抗倒塌安全储备(CMR)与静力推覆得到的结构位移安全储备之间存在较好的相关关系.依据此关系,建议了保证大震倒塌率的推覆位移安全储备,并通过9个RC框架结构算例进行了验证.本文方法简单易行,可供规则多层RC框架结构抗倒塌设计参考.     

保定市典型多层砖混结构震害预测分析

将保定市42栋典型多层砖混结构分别按照年代、用途、层数分类,采用结构易损性方法进行震害预测分析,得出各自震害矩阵,并以平均抗震能力指数评价其抗震能力。分析结论可为保定市多层砖混群体震害预测提供参考。     

Coral communities and reefs from Guerrero,Southern Mexican Pacific

Corals in the Eastern Pacific extend south from the Gulf of California to Ecuador and oceanic Chile, and west from Colombia to Clipperton Atoll. Nevertheless, large stretches of the Mexican Pacific remain fundamentally unstudied. Therefore, to assess the current conditions of coral communities, a coastal fringe ～300 km long (17°40′ N, 101°39′ W to 16°46′ N, 99°49′ W) was surveyed within the Southern Mexican Pacific, between 2005 and 2009. Fifteen stony coral species were identified at 13 coral communities and six Pocillopora‐dominated fringing reefs, with Pocillopora verrucosa and Pocillopora damicornis the primary contributing taxa. Reef development was identified in embayments or behind rocks or islands that offered shelter from northern and northwestern winds. Observations of Pocillopora effusus, Pocillopora inflata, Porites lobata, Pavona clavus, and Pavona varians expanded the species known geographic ranges by several degrees of latitude, suggesting reef building fauna comprised a mixture of widespread and relatively rare Eastern Pacific corals. Results indicated greater live coral cover in the Ixtapa‐Zihuatanejo area (15–73%) than in the Acapulco localities, which had high algal dominance; the reefs in the latter region exhibited high erosion. Regional differences are likely the result of long‐standing anthropogenic pressures around Acapulco since 1950, when it became an important tourist destination. This paper is the first detailed report of ecologically stressed corals and coral reefs from the state of Guerrero on the Mexican Southern Pacific coast.     

Community characteristics of wild fruit forests along elevation gradients and the relationships between the wild fruit forests and environments in the Keguqin Mountain region of Iii

In this paper,the quantitative relationship between the wild fruit communities and direct environmental factors is discussed on the basis of detailed data on landscape scale habitats obtained through field vegetation investigation.The results from TWINSPAN and DCCA showed that:1) In the distribution sections of the wild fruit forest in the Keguqin Mountain region,the basic patterns characteristic of the different habitats are due to topographic factors,nutrients and moisture conditions;2) The elevation affected the most basic differentiation of plant communities in the study area,indicating that the elevation condition was the most important factor restricting the distribution of the wild fruit communities in the study area;3) The close relationship between the moisture content in the upper soil layer and the elevation reflected the influence of moisture conditions on both wild fruit and herb-layer communities;4) Nutrient differences not only indicated that the habitat conditions were different in themselves but also showed that the present nutrient conditions of the habitats were seriously affected by human activities.In summary,under complicated mountainous topographic conditions,the habitat conditions for the communities differed very significantly,and the combination of elevation,soil moisture content,total nitrogen,slope aspect,and pH value influenced and controlled the formation of community distribution patterns in the study area.     

祁连山东段山地景观格局变化及其生态脆弱性分析

以RS和GIS技术为主要手段,分析了祁连山东段地区1994-2008年的景观格局变化及其生态脆弱性。结果表明：（1）与1994年相比,森林、草地、冰雪带、水域4种景观要素的面积分别减少了5.0%、2.0%、2.2%、2.0%,而灌木和裸地的面积则分别增加了6.8%、5.0%;灌木、草地、冰雪带和裸地景观要素的平均斑块面积分别增加了49.0%、19.0%、1.1%、436.6%,森林和水域平均斑块面积分别减小了9.6%和4.1%。（2）森林、草地、冰雪带、水域4种景观要素的平均最邻近距离增加,聚集度降低,各景观要素内部斑块之间聚集度减小。灌木与森林景观要素之间的空间邻接长度增加了3 867 km,裸地与其他景观要素之间的空间邻接长度增加了5 589 km,嵌缀在其他各种景观要素中的裸地小斑块逐渐融合成大斑块。（3）景观类型脆弱度指数与破碎度指数之间显著正相关,分维数倒数、分离度指数和沙化敏感性指数与景观类型脆弱度指数呈弱度正相关。祁连山东段地区森林和草地退化,面积萎缩、水域干涸,裸地面积增加,各景观要素的空间关系趋于简单,景观破碎化增加。人类活动所引起的景观破碎化是祁连山东段地区景观格局和景观脆弱性变化的决定性因素。