互联网+社区地震应急桌面演练的设计与实施——以青海省海西州为例

地震灾害应对实践表明,社区作为社会治理的基本单元,在抢救生命、安置群众生活等方面发挥着重要作用。应急演练是有效提升民众防灾减灾意识和社区应对灾害能力的重要途径。近年来,社区开展了不同程度的地震应急演练,但在专业性和实效性方面仍存在很大提升空间。本文基于互联网+应急演练理念,提出基于互联网云服务的分布式、多社区、不限人数、同步或异步开展的应急桌面演练新模式,并在青海省海西蒙古族藏族自治州进行了试点应用。实践表明,互联网+社区地震应急桌面演练融合了传统桌面演练与实战演练的优势,可针对社区管理层开展地震灾害全过程桌面推演,能有效促进社区管理层应急组织协调能力的提升。     

太湖流域海面-地面变化信息系统研究

从生态脆弱性的一般属性出发,分析太湖生态脆弱性特征的形成和发展,太湖是我国典型的生态脆弱区,且有继续发展的可能趋势。迫切需要我们摆脱“鱼米之乡”,“人间天堂”等观念束缚,针对生态脆弱性特征,探索消除生态脆弱矛盾的对策措施。     

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.     

适应气候变化研究中的常见术语辨析

适应气候变化在国际公约谈判及国内适应实践中成为重要的关注内容,明晰适应相关的术语含义具有科学参考价值和实践指导意义。本文通过比较适应相关术语认为,适应是行为方式或对策措施的界定,可不需量化数据支持;适应能力需有明确评价指标体系,并最终产生量化性评价结果;适应性更偏重于能力属性,其基本结论是有或无、强或弱的判断,在适应性有量化结论支持或明确强弱确定时则等同于适应能力。脆弱性评价中,暴露度体现主体对象与气候变化相关的基本处境概况,敏感性表明气候变化对主体对象的影响,适应能力则是经济资本、自然资源、技术水平、社会保障四大要素的综合评价,各要素涵盖的具体指标需要酌情依据适应主体属性予以判别和遴选。适应气候变化与灾害风险管理在主体范畴、驱动因子、行动目的上有所区别,但两者共同关注提高对气候变化/气候灾害风险的抵御、承受、恢复能力,以降低不利影响,实现可持续发展为共同目标。     

基于GIS/RS的南方丘陵区农村水资源系统脆弱性评价——以衡阳盆地为例

采用GIS/RS的方法,以衡阳盆地为研究对象,构建由年降水量,少雨期干旱指数,坡度指数,土壤蓄水能力指数,植被覆盖指数,土地利用指数,水源可获得性指数和人类活动指数8个具体指标组成的基于GIS/RS方法的水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,对衡阳盆地农村水资源脆弱性进行定量评价。结果表明,衡阳盆地农村水资源系统脆弱度的空间分布总体表现为“南北低、中间高”的分布态势,北部的衡阳县、西部的祁东县和中部的衡南县是全区水资源脆弱性最高区域,而南部的常宁、耒阳和东北的衡东县是全区水资源脆弱性低值区。基于GIS/RS的水资源脆弱性评价方法与传统研究方法所得结果具有较好的相似性,但是,相对于传统的评价方法,GIS方法的评价结果更为细致和精确。     

辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性评价

在人海关系地域系统的基础上提出了人海经济系统的概念,在此基础上对辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统进行研究。采用熵值系数法进行权重赋值,建立脆弱性与敏感性、恢复性函数关系,并对其进行评价。结果表明：① 从脆弱性结果分析来看,1996~2009年辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性逐年降低,并从极强脆弱型发展为弱脆弱型;② 1996~2009年敏感性指数呈现多个“倒U”型连续波动;③ 1996~2009年,恢复性指数呈现逐年增长的趋势。海洋产业增加值逐年增加,海洋油气产业发展出现波动性的变化,海洋捕捞产量得到了一定程度的控制,海洋产业结构进行了一定程度上的调整,为加快新兴产业发展起到了重要的作用。     

基于VSD模型的区域生态系统脆弱性评价——以广西西江经济带为例(英文)

生态系统脆弱性受到自然与人文因素双重影响。以广西西江经济带为例,采用VSD模型,通过暴露度、敏感性和适应能力分解脆弱性,构建包含自然和人为因素的25指标的评价体系,开展脆弱性评价与分区。结果表明,不脆弱区、一般区、脆弱区、很脆弱区和极脆弱区分别占11.31%、22.63%、27.60%、24.39%和14.07%,东西部地区脆弱性较高,中部地区脆弱性较低;自然因素导致的脆弱区主要分布于东西部山区,人为因素主导的脆弱区分布于中部盆地的城镇及其周边;经济带约53%的建设用地分布于很脆弱区和脆弱区,未来新增建设用地需要重点向不脆弱区和一般区转移。根据分区结果和诱因差异,提出了不同类型区开发与保护的相关建议。     

An extension to the DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: application to the Haouz aquifer of Marrakech (Morocco)

An extension to the DRASTIC model is proposed in order to assess aquifer vulnerability to pollution. In contrast to the DRASTIC model, which considers the unsaturated and saturated zones together and computes a global intrinsic vulnerability index, the suggested approach discriminates between the aquifer vertical vulnerability (a concept related to the pollutant percolation) and the groundwater susceptibility (a concept that depends on the behaviour and uses of the groundwater). This approach is applied to the Haouz aquifer (Morocco) that supplies water to the Marrakech area. This aquifer is widely overexploited and there is evidence that the groundwater quality is threatened by various sources of pollution. Evaluation of the vertical vulnerability indicates that the aquifer mainly presents a moderate-to-weak vertical vulnerability. The zones potentially most favourable to pollutant percolation are mainly located in Central Haouz, along or near the surface wadis. The aquifer susceptibility is high in places located near the N’Fis, Baaja and Issil wadis. Everywhere else, low-to-moderate susceptibility is observed. This new approach therefore enables areas of vertical vulnerability and areas of susceptibility to be delineated separately. As a result, it constitutes a valuable decision-making tool for optimising the management of aquifer water resources and land-use planning.     

秦皇岛地区滨海湿地类型及其生态脆弱性

泰皇岛地区滨海湿地是我国最具代表性的沙质海岸湿地分布区,主要湿地类型为沙质海岸湿地、岩石性海岸湿地、河口湿地、泻湖湿地、浅海水域和人工湿地．受自然和人为因素的综合影响,滨海湿地生态束皖具有明显的脆弱性,主要表现为湿地植被自然演变缓慢、淡水供蛤量严重不足、海岸侵蚀日趋严重、人工围垦导致大面积自然湿地消失以及环境污染等几个方面．滨海湿地生态脆弱性与人类活动密切相关,合理调控人类干扰活动是促使湿地脆弱生态束皖向良性和狍定方向发展的关键．     

Shifts from native to non-indigenous mussels: Enhanced habitat complexity and its effects on faunal assemblages

Ecosystem engineers such as mussels may affect strongly both the structure of benthic assemblages and the ecosystem functioning. The black-pygmy mussel Limnoperna securis is an invasive species that is spreading along the Galician coast (NW Spain). Its current distribution overlaps with the distribution of the commercial native mussel species Mytilus galloprovincialis, but only in the inner part of two southern Galician rias. Here, we analysed the assemblages associated with clumps of the two mussel species and evaluated if the invasive species increased complexity of habitat. To measure complexity of clumps we used a new method modified from the “chain and tape” method. Results showed that the identity of the mussel influenced macrofaunal assemblages, but not meiofauna. L. securis increased the complexity of clumps, and such complexity explained a high percentage of variability of macrofauna. The shift in dominance from M. galloprovincialis to L. securis may alter habitat structure and complexity, affecting the macrofaunal assemblages with unpredictable consequences on trophic web relations.