Quantitative Assessment of the Ecological Vulnerability of Baiyangdian Wetlands in the North China Plain

Quantitative assessment of vulnerability is a core aspect of wetland vulnerability research. Taking Baiyangdian (BYD) wetlands in the North China Plain as a study area and using the ‘cause-result’ model, 23 representative indicators from natural, social, sci-tech and economic elements were selected to construct an indicator system. A weight matrix was obtained by using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight value for each indicator. Based on the membership function in the fuzzy evaluation model, the membership degrees were determined to form a fuzzy relation matrix. Finally, the ecological vulnerability was quantitatively assessed based on the comprehensive evaluation index calculated by using a composite operator to combine the entropy weight matrix with the fuzzy relation matrix. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability levels of the BYD wetlands were comprehensively evaluated as Grade II, Grade Ⅲ, Grade IV, and Grade Ⅲ in 2010, 2011-2013, 2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. The ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands increased from low fragility in 2010 to general fragility in 2011-2013, and to high fragility in 2014, reflecting the fact that the wetland ecological condition was degenerating from 2010 to 2014. The ecological vulnerability status then turned back into general fragility during 2015-2017, indicating that the ecological situation of the BYD wetlands was starting to improve. However, the ecological status of the BYD wetlands on the whole is relatively less optimistic. The major factors affecting the ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands were found to be industrial smoke and dust emission, wetland water area, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, rate of industrial solid wastes disposed, GDP per capita, etc. This illustrates that it is a systematic project to regulate wetland vulnerability and to protect regional ecological security, which may offer researchers and policy-makers specific clues for concrete interventions.     

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead§

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.     

农户尺度的黄土高原乡村干旱脆弱性及适应机理

干旱脆弱性及人类对干旱的适应机理分析是干旱及半干旱地区人地关系研究的重要内容,也是西北地区乡村人地系统可持续性研究的新视角。本文运用Turner脆弱性分析框架,将其改进应用到黄土高原乡村农户的干旱脆弱性及其适应领域,选取榆中县和长武县气象数据和农户调查数据,应用主成分分析、综合指数法、差异性分析和鲁棒性分析等方法分别对指标权重、农户干旱脆弱性指数及其差异性与脆弱性指数的不确定性进行分析与检验,并从适应能力、适应策略和适应模式三个层面揭示适应机理。主要结论为：①中连川乡农户干旱脆弱性指数大于洪家镇,且不同村落间农户干旱脆弱性指数差异显著;②农户干旱适应机理为暴露—敏感性影响农户收入,农户生计系统是适应干旱暴露扰动的决定因子,农户类型、生计方式、土地利用、灌溉设施和政策扶持的差异性产生不同的适应模式和适应效果;③农户干旱脆弱性指数排名出现频率较高且排名变化范围较小,具有较强的鲁棒性,表明农户干旱脆弱性计算结果具有稳健性。     

区域雷电灾害风险评估模型与应用

在分析国内雷电灾害风险区划发展现状进行的基础上,从区域雷电灾害事前风险评估的角度出发,采用灾害评估的承灾体、致灾体模式,引入雷电风险、地域风险和承灾体风险作为评估指标,针对每个指标选取与其发生紧密度较高的参数作为2级评价标准,对区域雷电灾害风险进行基于事前致灾因子的区域雷电灾害风险评估研究,并以福建省为例,应用该模型进行了计算。结果表明,基于承灾体、致灾体模式的区域雷电灾害风险评估模型能较好地反应出区域雷电灾害发生的损失程度,对于行政区域范围的雷电灾害风险度区域与政府决策支持具有积极的指导意义。     

产业结构对洪涝灾害承灾体易损性影响探讨——以河南省安阳市为例

从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体3个方面分析了洪涝灾害承灾体易损性,阐述了产业结构的发展趋势与动力,分析了产业结构对洪涝灾害承灾体易损性的影响。以安阳市为例,在分析典型年份产业结构的基础上,运用地均产值指标分析了2010年三大产业产值效益以及由产业结构变化导致的土地利用结构变化,探讨了典型年份产业结构调整对承灾体易损性的影响。结果表明:安阳市第一产业产值比重呈现减小趋势,第二产业比重最高且基本稳定,第三产业则呈增长趋势。在典型年份,第二产业产值所占比重最高时,承灾体易损性增强,洪涝灾害造成经济损失严重,且与第一产业所占比重呈相反发展趋势,与第三产业呈现相同发展趋势;洪涝灾害期间日降雨量明显减小,但其造成的损失却有加大趋势。近年来,安阳市第一产业产值比重下降,降低了承灾体的易损性;第二产业比重平稳增长以及第三产业比重上升较快,则增强了承灾体的易损性。     

Assessing the distribution and impacts of Prosopis juliflora through participatory approaches

Invasive species pose global biological and economic challenges. Over the past four decades, Prosopis taxa have emerged as a major invader of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Prosopis juliflora, one of the highly invasive Prosopis species, is dominantly present in the Afar region of Ethiopia and continues to spread into the surrounding areas. The objective of this study was to aid the mapping, utilization, and management of the invasive P. juliflora in Afar, by employing participatory research techniques. We assessed the introduction history, impacts, uses, and control strategies of invasive P. juliflora by interviewing 108 pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. In addition, we used Participatory Mapping (PM), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), and remote sensing technologies and approaches to map sites invaded by P. juliflora. Sketch maps were produced by men, women, pastoralist and agro-pastoralist groups. Experts aggregated, scaled and reproduced the sketch maps with support from the Afar communities. We provided GPS and GIS trainings to selected community members who assisted us in collecting the GPS locations of more than 70 key features and landmarks. The sketch maps were digitized and geo-referenced by experts using the 70 GPS records as control points. Geo-referenced community maps were superimposed on pan-sharpened Landsat 8 satellite images and presented to the communities for verification. We overlaid the verified community maps on ancillary land-cover layers, and detected the land-cover classes that were most affected by P. juliflora invasion. Despite its uses as source of fire wood, charcoal, and animal fodder, the species has adverse impacts on native species and livestock resources. Afar communities mapped P. juliflora infestations, particularly those that occurred near their villages, using high and moderate density classes. The two highly invaded land-cover categories were dense grassland, and exposed sand & soils. Participants collaborated in creating the produced maps, suggesting that participatory research approaches are another tool for early detection of invasive species and guiding fine-scale management strategies.     

Environmental and political implications of Vietnam's water vulnerabilities: A multiscale assessment

Vietnam's low‐lying areas of the Lower Mekong Basin are prone to floods, salt water inundation, and riparian competition with upstream neighbours. Vietnam's opening to the global economy, accompanied by industrialization and a rapidly growing population, impose multiscale (global, regional, local) stresses on urban and rural water systems resulting in water contamination and groundwater overdraft. Water vulnerability is a function of both natural and social hazards and depends on the scope of capital investment, political and ideological institutions, managerial capacity and governance. Water distribution and riparian ecosystem health are also hydropolitical issues related to dam‐building activity by Vietnam and its transboundary neighbours, Laos, Cambodia and particularly China, whose territory contains the source of the Mekong River. A multiscale assessment of Vietnam's interlinked water vulnerabilities indicates that the resilience of the country's social‐ecological water system rests on peaceful resolution of regional transboundary conflicts based on shared economic interests and on improved managerial practices of local authorities.     

西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例

本文以云南省大理白族自治州为例,综合考量生态风险源、受体、暴露响应过程及生态终点,采用信息量模型评估滑坡灾害危险性,基于景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,并将生态系统服务纳入风险损失的定量表征,定量评估流域滑坡灾害生态风险。结果表明：① 低于1800 m高程、15°~25°坡度、小于0.31植被覆盖指数等10方面因素构成了诱发大理州滑坡灾害的最佳信息量组合,全州普遍处于滑坡灾害危险性中高水平,且西北低、东南高;② 生态脆弱性高值区主要集中在红河流域南部、金沙江流域东南部、澜沧江流域中部;③ 低生态损失流域的水源涵养、粮食供给服务相对较差,生态损失中等流域的净初级生产、土壤保持服务优势明显,高生态损失流域则具有较强的粮食供给和水源涵养服务;④ 基于高中低3种生态风险等级和“高危险—低脆弱—低损失”等8种风险结构,全州367个小流域可划分出避让监测预警区、生态保护恢复区、避让保护兼顾区、自然适应调控区等4种风险防范类型区。     

信息通讯技术对老年人的社区满意度影响路径——以南京市锁金社区为例

在中国老龄化进程加快以及智慧养老快速发展的背景下,如何运用信息通讯技术(ICT)提高老年人社区生活质量成为地理学与规划学等领域的关注热点。本文选取南京市首个智慧平台落户社区——锁金社区为实证调研对象,通过构建结构方程模型结合问卷调查,探究信息通讯技术对老年人的社区满意度影响路径,其中问卷内容主要包括个人特征属性、个人ICT使用情况、社会支持情况、社区满意度等。结果表明：老年人信息设备的拥有及使用越趋向多元化,其网络活动越频繁;受教育使用水平越高、使用互联网意愿更强烈的老年人其网络活动越频繁;信息通讯技术主要通过社交类网络活动促进老年人的家庭、邻里交往,提高老年人的社会支持,从而提升社区满意度;与社区建成环境相比,社会支持对于老年人的社区满意度影响更大。因此,合理运用信息通讯技术加强老年人与家人、邻里等的联系强度,是提高老年人社区生活质量的一条可行路径。研究结果对于智慧社区、智慧养老建设具有一定的借鉴意义。     

国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示

当今国际地缘政治经济格局正处于剧烈变动中,并对缅甸地缘环境的复杂性及地缘脆弱性产生深刻影响。缅甸所在的大湄公河次区域日益成为世界重要地缘政治力量博弈前沿和焦点。系统研究缅甸国家地缘脆弱性,对于中国西部大开发、“一带一路”及周边地缘环境建设具有重要战略意义。本文基于地缘政治及人地关系地域系统等学科理论,规范分析与实证分析相结合,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性等方面构建了国家地缘脆弱性研究框架,系统探索了缅甸典型的国家地缘脆弱性特征。资源环境禀赋、内部地域结构等引致的经济政治体系、社会文化传承等方面是缅甸脆弱性的本底特征,而缅甸与中国的地缘关系及决策则从根本上影响其地缘战略位态。缅甸地缘政治脆弱性及其与中国的相互依赖使之成为西方“U型封堵大陆战略”的薄弱点和今后角逐的着力点,也是中国解围破局重要的地缘战略出口。近期中国应通过“一带一路”孟中印缅经济走廊建设,大力加强中缅之间政治、经济、文化等各方面友好关系。