中高纬度与热带大气的共同作用对江南4-6月低频降水的影响

基于中国国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)提供的逐日向外长波辐射资料和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐日全球再分析资料,采用非滤波法提取10-30 d低频降水及低频环流因子,分析了1979-2013年江南地区4-6月低频降水及其关联的大气环流特征,着重讨论了中高纬度与热带共同作用对低频降水的影响及可能机理。结果表明:(1)江南4-6月降水的第1模态呈现全区一致的变化趋势,其10-30 d低频降水方差贡献率在江南南部较大,部分区域可达20%。(2)降水的低频异常不仅与热带对流有关,还与中高纬度大气环流的变化显著相关。当东印度洋及印度尼西亚一带对流旺盛,中国上游欧洲至西伯利亚地区高纬度位势高度表现为显著的正异常,江南上空为负异常时,有利于江南低频降水。(3)中高纬度大气环流与热带对流共同作用影响江南4-6月低频降水:当热带对流旺盛区(抑制区)位于东印度洋及印度尼西亚海洋性大陆一带时,热带热源的非绝热加热引起显著的上升(下沉)运动,并激发经向罗斯贝波北传;同时高纬度欧洲至西伯利亚地区的位势高度负异常(正异常)向东向南传播,两者在江南上游叠加,低压(高压)底前部的西南风(东北风)有利于孟加拉湾对江南的水汽输送加强(减弱),对应江南地区整层水汽通量辐合(辐散),低频降水偏多(偏少)。     

GPS和GLONASS系统下RAIM空洞预报

接收机自主完好性监测（RAIM）是卫星导航系统完好性监测的方法之一。一定时空条件下的RAIM可用性,可以通过RAIM空洞直观的反映出来,可以为飞行提供预警;利用不同期GPS、GLONASS实际星座,仿真分析了单星座以及GPS／GLONASS组合星座RAIM可用性,绘制了RAIM空洞图,具有一定的参考价值。     

A Numerical Study on Effects of Land-Surface Heterogeneity from ‘Combined Approach’ on Atmospheric Process Part II: Coupling-Model Simulations

Two land surface schemes, one the standard Biosphere / Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Version le (B0Z) and the other B1Z based on B0Z and heterogeneously-treated by ‘combined approach’ , were coupled to the meso-scale model MM4, respectively. Through the calculations of equations from the companion paper, parameters representing land surface heterogeneity and suitable for the coupling models were found out. Three cases were simulated for heavy rainfalls during 36 hours, and the sensitivity of short-term weath-er modeling to the land surface heterogeneity was tested. Through the analysis of the simulations of the three heavy rainfalls, it was demonstrated that B1Z, compared with B0Z, could more realistically reflect the features of the land surface heterogeneity, therefore could more realistically reproduce the circulation and precipitation amount in the heavy rainfall processes of the three cases. This shows that even short-term weather is sensitive to the land surface heterogeneity, which is more obvious with time passing, and whose influence is more pronounced in the lower layer and gradually extends to the middle and upper layer. Through the analysis of these simulations with B1Z, it is suggested that the bulk effect of smaller-scale fluxes (i.e., the momentum, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes) near the significantly-heterogeneous Land surface is to change the larger-scale (i.e., meso-scale) circulation, and then to influence the development of the low-level jets and precipitation. And also, the complexity of the land-atmosphere interaction was shown in these simulations.     

上覆岩层组合运动的力学解析特征研究

运用弹性薄板理论和复合材料力学的层合板理论,讨论了在覆岩运动中起决定作用的组合关键层的应力,为计算组合关键层的整体强度提供了途径;并且从控制开采沉陷工程实际入手,将结构塑性极限分析理论运用于组合关键层的失稳最大荷载计算,解析得出了充分采动情况下关键层塑性极限荷载的表达式,从另一个角度得到了一种判别关键层位置的新方法,为实施离层带注浆减沉提供参考。     

自动气象站E-601B型蒸发器的改进

本文针对目前国家基准气侯站广泛应用的E-601B型蒸发器,据多年的观测实践经验,详细介绍了对E-601B型蒸发传感器下三角支架底座改进的理由、方法、效果;同时还介绍了密封排水孔,取消溢流桶等,改用专用储水瓶取水法的理由、方法、效果。通过改进,不仅能够使E-601B型蒸发器的设计更加简单、操作更加方便,而且可以大量节省观测人员的劳动量和时间,从而使观测到的蒸发量更加准确。     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

马海盐湖高含泥、低品位地表固体钾矿矿浆絮凝沉降试验研究

研究了非离子聚丙烯酰胺、阴离子聚丙烯酰胺、阳离子聚丙烯酰胺、聚氧化乙烯、聚合氯化铝等絮凝剂对马海盐湖泥湖高不溶物矿浆的絮凝沉降效果,给出了研究结果。此项研究对高不溶物可溶盐矿物母液的回收利用有一定的参考价值。     

苏北梁王城遗址黄泛层初步研究

基于黄河下游流域考古遗址中第一次发现的黄泛地层,对苏北梁王城遗址T3902探方南壁剖面上部自然淤积层采样,结合考古断代,并参照历史资料,通过分析重砂矿物和粒度两方面的实验结果,揭示出考古遗址中黄泛地层的沉积物特征。旨在为今后环境考古中对黄泛地层的判别和对比提供可靠的科学依据,特别是为在黄河下游洪泛区考古遗址中疑似黄泛层的确认提供依据。     

Aquatic Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Wet Weather Discharges in the Sydney Region, New South Wales, Australia

Sydney Water has completed a risk assessment to assess the risks to human health and aquatic organisms in creeks, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters affected by wet weather sewage overflows, stormwater and sewage treatment plant discharges. The risk assessment methodology consists of a comparison of measured and predicted concentrations of chemicals with toxicity reference values. Estimates of receiving water chemical concentrations were derived using data from a 10-year period so that the variable rainfall pattern was represented. Computer models were used to simulate and predict wet weather discharges during this ten year period. Risks were validated by bioassays and bioassessments. Risks to aquatic life from wet weather discharges were attributed to 14 chemicals at one or more of the sites and stormwater was the predominate source of the chemicals. There were no risks to people engaged in water based activities. Noncarcinogenic risks from fish ingestion are predicted at three sites. Predicted cancer risks for most individual chemicals were relatively small. Carcinogenic risks were typically associated with organochlorine compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dichlorobenzene, and arsenic. The predicted cancer risks also appear to be largely the result of stormwater rather than sewage overflow inputs and largely due to historical contamination by organochlorine pesticides. It is expected the concentrations of these chemicals will decrease over time.     

联合战役地形分析

首次提出联合战役地形分析的概念,并分析了联合战役地形分析应用的主要时机和要求。论述确定地形分析基本任务的逻辑关系,并分别研究了联合战役地形分析各基本内容的概念与分析方法。