2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

汾河水库流域人工增雨可行性研究

本文通过对汾河流域40a气象、水文资料的分析,结合现阶段人工增雨技术的研究,以增加水库蓄水量为目的,设计科学可行的人工增雨方案,并对可能的投入和预期产生的效益进行分析研究,为通过人工增雨增加水库蓄水量提供科学依据。     

Tropical Precipitation Estimated by GPCP and TRMM PR Observations

In this study, tropical monthly mean precipitation estimated by the latest Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） version 2 dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar （TRMM PR） are compared in temporal and spatial scales in order to comprehend tropical rainfall climatologically. Reasons for the rainfall differences derived from both datasets are discussed. Results show that GPCP and TRMM PR datasets present similar distribution patterns over the Tropics but with some differences in amplitude and location. Generally, the average difference over the ocean of about 0.5 mm d^-1 is larger than that of about 0.1 mm d^-1 over land. Results also show that GPCP tends to underestimate the monthly precipitation over the land region with sparse rain gauges in contrast to regions with a higher density of rain gauge stations. A Probability Distribution Function （PDF） analysis indicates that the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is generally consistent with the TRMM PR rain rate as the latter is less than 8 mm d^-1. When the TRMM PR rain rate is greater than 8 mm d^-1, the GPCP rain rate at its maximum PDF is less by at least 1 mm d^-1 compared to TRMM PR estimates. Results also show an absolute bias of less than 1 mm d^-1 between the two datasets when the rain rate is less than 10 mm d^-1. A large relative bias of the two datasets occurs at weak and heavy rain rates.     

不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析

统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。     

Impacts of Previous Winter Kuroshio SSTA on Summer Rainfall in China

1. IntroductionAs well known, Kuroshio is a famous and strongwest boundary current in the North Pacific. It trans-fers enormous energy from the low latitudes to themid-high latitudes and releases huge heat flux to theatmosphere above (Hsiung, 1985). The variation ofKuroshio exerts great influence on weather and cli-mate in East Asian.During 1950-60s, Lü (1950, 1964) found that thewestern North Pacific SSTA had a close relation withsummer rainfall in China. In the 1970s, evidencesshowed…     

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.     

Direct Current Plasma Emission Spectrometric Determination of Major, Minor and Trace Elements in Microwave Oven Acid Leachates of Powdered Whole Coal Samples

Major concentrations of Al₂O₃, Fe₂O₃, MgO, CaO, Na₂O and K₂O, minor levels of TiO₂, P₂O₅ and thirty petrologically, geochemically and environmentally significant trace elements have been determined in microwave oven acid leachates of whole powdered coal samples by direct current plasma‐atomic emission spectrometry (DCP‐AES). A single sample preparation procedure was suitable for all the determinations with no additional dilution step for major elements solution. Dried samples (0.5 g) were treated in low‐pressure PFA digestion vessels with HF/HCl/HNO₃/HClO₄ acids to quantitatively extract the analytes from the bulk material, while leaving the major part of organic matrix as a residue. The major constituents of geological samples, in particular the easily ionised elements (EIEs) such as alkali and alkaline earths, may complicate the instrumental determinations in DCP‐AES because of differential enhancements of elemental emission intensities and stray light interferences. Taking account of these factors, the coal matrix is considered to have very low major oxide totals as compared to many other common geo‐environmental and related materials (rocks, sediments, soil, ashes etc.). The sample size employed here, while yielding a relatively concentrated solution to cover a wide range of elemental determinations, provided a sample matrix that significantly diminished interferences for DCP measurements. The need for closely matching the unknowns and calibrators was eliminated except for overall acidity and an excess quantity of caesium for EIE buffering. Calibration of the spectrometer was accomplished by simple aqueous single element solutions as high concentration calibrators in addition to a reagent blank as a low concentration calibrator. Two point working curves were established to allow for the maximum concentrations of each element expected in the unknowns. The precision of determinations under routine conditions as well as the reproducibility of the leaching and precision of instrumental measurements have been evaluated. Relative standard deviations (RSD) were of 1–2% for those elements whose concentrations in solid samples were well above the limits of quantification. Method detection limits in the buffered solutions were also evaluated. To evaluate the accuracy of the microwave oven‐DCP method a suite of eight certified coal reference materials of differing rank, were analysed with good agreement with the certified and/or available published data. Results are presented for the uncertified major oxides in the AR series reference materials.     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of coupled physical swelling and chemical reactions on deformable geomaterials

Coupled thermo‐hydro‐mechanical‐chemical modelling has attracted attention in past decades due to many contemporary geotechnical engineering applications (e.g., waste disposal, carbon capture and storage). However, molecular‐scale interactions within geomaterials (e.g., swelling and dissolution/precipitation) have a significant influence on the mechanical behaviour, yet are rarely incorporated into existing Thermal‐Hydro‐Mechanical‐Chemical (THMC) frameworks. This paper presents a new coupled hydro‐mechanical‐chemical constitutive model to bridge molecular‐scale interactions with macro‐physical deformation by combining the swelling and dissolution/precipitation through an extension of the new mixture‐coupling theory. Entropy analysis of the geomaterial system provides dissipation energy, and Helmholtz free energy gives the relationship between solids and fluids. Numerical simulation is used to compare with the selected recognized models, which demonstrates that the swelling and dissolution/precipitation processes may have a significant influence on the mechanical deformation of the geomaterials.     

Effects of temporal scales and space mismatches on the TRMM 3B42 v7 precipitation product in a remote mountainous area

The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.