丹东冬季降水相态判据研究

利用丹东1979-2012年10月至翌年4月逐日降水、天气现象、高空探空资料及NCEP0.5°×0.5°（部分2.5°×2.5°）再分析资料,对丹东地区冬季不同相态降水气候及大气层结特征进行了统计分析, 并对不同相态降水典型个例进行了分析。结果表明：丹东地区虽地处北方,但冬季降水相态多样。在秋冬、冬春过渡和严冬不同时段,大气不同层结不同相态降水气温阈值范围不同,建立了丹东冬季不同大气层结降水相态判据。大气不同层结前期特别是近地面层气温背景与不同相态降水的发生与转换关系密切,可为动态预报降水相态提供了参考。850 hPa及以下中低空温度条件对冬季降水相态形成至关重要,850 hPa的0℃线能较好区分雨和雪区大致范围,925 hPa的0 ℃线能较好区分雨夹雪和雪以及雨夹雪和雨大致范围。     

Multi-Model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO_2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

This is the second part of the authors’ analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6–0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5°C) than over eastern China (<2°C). The multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest–southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (～1°C– 2°C) is less than MME warming (～2°C–4°C), indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO 2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting" the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.     

Diurnal Variations of Hydrochemistry in a Travertine-depositing Stream at Baishuitai, Yunnan, SW China

Diurnal variations of hydrochemistry were monitored at a spring and two pools in a travertine-depositing stream at Baishuitai, Yunnan, SW China. Water temperature, pH and specific conductivity were measured in intervals of 5 and 30 min for periods of 1 to 2 days. From these data the concentrations of Ca²⁺, HCO₃⁻, calcite saturation index, and CO₂ partial pressure were derived. The measurements in the spring of the stream did not show any diurnal variations in the chemical composition of the water. Diurnal variations, however, were observed in the water of the two travertine pools downstream. In one of them, a rise in temperature (thus more CO₂ degassing) during day time and consumption of CO₂ due to photosynthesis of submerged aquatic plants accelerated deposition of calcite, whereas in the other pool, where aquatic plants flourished and grew out of the water (so photosynthesis was taking place in the atmosphere), the authors suggest that temperature-dependent root respiration underwater took place, which dominated until noon. Consequently, due to the release of CO₂ by the root respiration into water, which dominated CO₂ production by degassing induced by temperature increase, the increased dissolution of calcite was observed. This is the first time anywhere at least in China that the effect of root respiration on diurnal hydrochemical variations has been observed. The finding has implications for sampling strategy within travertine-depositing streams and other similar environments with stagnant water bodies such as estuaries, lakes, reservoirs, pools and wetlands, where aquatic plants may flourish and grow out of water.     

The dynamical and liquid water structure of the small cumulus as determined from its environment

This paper examines the evidence for the model of a small cumulus cloud represented as a quasi static but turbulent entity, growing on the upshear side and decaying on the downshear side. While the air just outside the cloudy outline is, on average, stationary relative to the embedding airmass, there is a slight flow, upwards and forward as though the updraft has induced upward motion in the clear air outside the cloud, on the growing side. On the decaying side the motion is downwards and away from the cloud.This is a flow pattern which is not consistent with the air flowing around the cloud as it moves forward but it agrees well with the picture given. Decayed remnants of cloud are found throughout the air previously occupied by the cloud. The cloud outline moves through the embedding air at a velocity which is almost as large as the relative motion of the subcloud feeding airflow (which is almost free from internal wind shear in strong convection).The mixing of dry air from above the inversion yields the observed diluted liquid water content in small cumuli, if such mixing is allowed to proceed until the cloud density equals that of the surrounding air. Quantitative conditions relating the liquid water to inversion temperature and moisture changes, and to the stability of the environment are presented. The strong vertical mixing from the top of the cloud downwards is important to microphysical processes.     

全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。     

利用星载测雨雷达探测结果对夏季中国南方对流和层云降水气候特征的分析

本文利用热带测雨卫星(TRMM)上搭载的测雨雷达(PR)十年的探测结果, 对夏季中国南方对流降水和层云降水的气候特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:夏季中国南方层云降水频次较对流降水频次高出两倍以上, 而对流降水强度至少是层云降水强度的4倍; 就整个中国南方而言, 这两种类型的降水对总降水量贡献相当。日变化分析表明夏季中国南方大部分地区的对流降水主要出现在午后, 层云降水出现时间并不集中, 但这两类降水的频次日变化均显示了明显的地域性特征; 对降水廓线日变化的分析结果表明, 对流降水和层云降水廓线的日变化主要表现在“雨顶”高度的日变化, 即对流降水云的厚度有明显的日变化变化特征, 不同地区的降水廓线存在明显的差异。降水率剖面分析结果显示了对流降水的“雨顶” 高度日变化较层云降水剧烈, 降水率的日变化则相反, 且层云降水率的地域性特征更强。     

50a来洮河流域降水径流变化趋势分析

洮河流域 40多年水文实测资料分析表明 ,由于受气候变化及人类活动影响 ,流域降水和径流特征发生了明显变化 ,降水与径流总体呈下降趋势 ,其下降的线性斜率分别为 - 0 .86～ - 1.34mm·a-1和 - 1.5 7～ - 3.36m3·s-1·a-1;而气温呈缓慢上升趋势 ,其上升的线性斜率为 0 0 2℃·a-1.降水的减少和温度的升高已经导致甘南草原荒漠化 ,使许多湿地和湖泊干涸 ;径流的减少和温度增加在近2 0a来有进一步加剧的趋势 .     

Five young star clusters in the outer region of the Small Magellanic Cloud

Colour–magnitude diagrams in the Washington system are presented for the first time for five star clusters projected on to the outer region of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). The clusters are found to have ages in the range 0.1–1.0 Gyr, as derived from the fit of isochrones with   Z = 0.004  . This sample increases substantially the number of young clusters in the outer SMC – particularly in the south-east quadrant – with well-derived parameters. We combine our results with those for other clusters in the literature to derive as large and homogeneous a data base as possible (totalling 49 clusters) in order to study global effects. We find no conclusive evidence for a dispersion in the cluster ages and metallicities as a function of their distance from the galaxy centre, in the SMC outer region. L 114 and 115, although very distant, are very young clusters, lying in the bridge of the SMC and therefore most likely formed during the interaction which formed this feature. We also find very good agreement between the cluster age–metallicity relation (AMR) and the prediction from a bursting model from Pagel & Tautvaišienė with a burst that occurred 3 Gyr ago. Comparing the present cluster AMR with that derived by Harris & Zaritsky for field stars in the main body of the SMC, we find that field stars and clusters underwent similar chemical enrichment histories during approximately the last couple of Gyr, but their chemical evolution was clearly different between 4 and 10 Gyr ago.     

Is Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) extrasolar?

Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) has a hyperbolic orbit with eccentricity 1.01060 and perihelion outside of the Earth's orbit. Integrating the orbit with barycentric coordinates backwards to 50000 AU, the approximate edge of the Oort cloud, shows that the orbit remains hyperbolic. This is still true even if plutoids additional to Pluto are included in the integration. Nor does including Galactic tidal and disc effects and possible nongravitational forces change the orbit to a high eccentricity ellipse. Although certain factors, such as unknown massive plutoids, gravitational effects by interstellar gas clouds, or unmodelled nongravitational forces operating on the comet, could change this situation, the tentative conclusion that the origin of this comet is extrasolar remains the one most consistent with the observations (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

新疆植被变化特征及其对降水的响应分析

针对植被对降水响应分析的多为年际尺度且多用气候影响因子分析的问题,本文提出了一种年际与季节性相结合的时间尺度、气候与土壤因子并重的空间相关性分析法.该方法从降水的季节性规律、植被的物候期角度研究植被的年际、季节性空间变化特征,实现了不同时间尺度、空间尺度上植被变化对降水过程的响应情况的分析研究.研究表明:从季节和年际尺...