Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

中国北方地区秋季植被变化及对气候变化的响应研究

基于1982~2006年的AVHRR GIMMS NDVI数据,使用一元线性回归和分段线性回归等方法,通过对中国北方地区植被变化及其与气候因子的关系研究,揭示该地区近25年来在不同时段的植被变化趋势及对气候变化的响应规律,从而为该地区的生态环境变化研究提供理论依据。研究结果表明:1)中国北方地区秋季植被在25年时间内整体呈上升趋势。秋季NDVI在秋季温度断点之前以上升趋势为主,秋季NDVI在秋季温度断点之后仍以上升趋势为主,但上升趋势有所放缓。2)通过分段线性回归方法和相关分析研究得出中国北方地区秋季温度是秋季NDVI变化的主要驱动力。在秋季温度断点之后,秋季温度仍呈上升趋势而降水呈显著减少的面积增多,从而在温度和降水双重影响下的干旱胁迫导致植被下降;当秋季温度下降而秋季降水增多时干旱发生概率变小,从而使秋季NDVI呈上升趋势。     

国内外前寒武纪条带状铁建造研究现状

条带状铁建造(BIFs)主要发育于早前寒武纪时期(3.8~1.8Ga),记录了早期地球演化的重要信息且蕴含丰富的铁矿石资源。本文梳理总结了国内外BIF相关领域的研究认识及存在问题:1统计对比显示,BIF沉积事件与地幔柱、地壳增生等重大地质事件相关;2稀土元素及Nd同位素示踪表明,Fe来源于海水与海底高温热液的混合溶液,其中高温热液与海水比例为1:1000;3 BIFs缺乏负Ce异常且富集重Fe同位素,暗示沉积时古海洋整体处于缺氧环境以避免Fe~(2+)发生氧化;4一些重要科学问题尚未解决,例如Si的主要来源、沉淀机制及条带成因等;5华北克拉通BIFs多形成于约2.54Ga,BIF类型、形成时代与富矿成因等问题有待深入研究。本文认为,加强国内外典型BIFs的对比研究并适当应用现代先进测试技术,有利于探索BIF沉积的精细过程及古老克拉通的早期演化。     

The impact of boreal autumn SST anomalies over the South Pacific on boreal winter precipitation over East Asia

The possible mechanism behind the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia is analyzed in this study. The results show that the SST anomalies(SSTAs) over the South Pacific Ocean(SPO) in boreal autumn are closely related to the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia. The physical link between the boreal autumn SPO SSTAs and the boreal winter East Asian precipitation dipole pattern is shown to mainly be the seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs themselves. The seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs can memorize and transport the signal of the boreal autumn SSTAs to the following winter, and then stimulates a meridional teleconnection pattern from the SH to the NH, resulting in a meridional dipole pattern of atmospheric circulation over East Asia in boreal winter. As a major influencing factor, this dipole pattern of the atmospheric circulation can finally lead to the anomalous precipitation dipole pattern over East Asia in boreal winter. These observed physical processes are further confirmed in this study through numerical simulation. The evidence from this study, showing the impact of the SPO SSTAs in boreal autumn,not only deepens our understanding of the variability in East Asian boreal winter precipitation, but also provides a potentially useful predictor for precipitation in the region.     

Simulation of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems in northern China: Lightning activities and storm structure

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.     

Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

TRMM星载测雨雷达和地基雷达反射率因子数据的三维融合

TRMM卫星上的测雨雷达(TRMMPR)探测资料分布均匀且具有很高的垂直分辨率,但灵敏度较低;地基雷达(GR)水平分辨率较高且具有较高的灵敏度,但其垂直分辨率低。通过将TRMM PR与GR反射率因子数据的三维数据融合,得到了更优的反射率因子图像。测雨雷达与地基雷达三维数据融合主要分为以下几步:测雨雷达与地基雷达数据预处理——如去杂波、衰减校正;测雨雷达与地基雷达时空匹配;选取和应用合适的三维图像融合算法;对融合后的图像进行效果评估。试验结果表明:融合后的图像不仅增大了信息量,更好地检测弱降水,还提高了空间三维(3D)分辨率,能更好地反映降水区域细节,且使得数据总体上具有更高的完整性和可靠性。此外,还将基于雷达资料估测的降水数据与地面雨量计数据进行对比,估计反射率因子数据融合在降水测量上的有效性。      

中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究

基于中国1960-2014年771个气象站的逐日降水资料,选取有效降水序列95百分位数作为极端降水阈值,将既定持续时间尺度和连续面积上超过阈值的降水事件定义为区域性极端降水事件。采用强度-面积-持续时间（Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD）法,根据极端降水事件空间和时间上的连续性特征,对不同持续时间的区域性极端降水事件演变趋势及暴露于极端降水事件下的人口和国内生产总值进行研究。结果表明:（1）相对强度最大的区域性极端降水事件主要集中在1960-1968、1991-1999和2006-2013年3个时段;（2）区域性极端降水事件最强中心主要分布在长江以南和东北地区,发生在北方的多为单日极端降水,南方多为持续多日的极端降水;（3）1960-2014年区域性极端降水事件影响面积有所增大,相对强度变化不明显;（4）暴露于极端降水事件影响区域内的人口和国内生产总值均呈显著增大趋势,暴露人口最多的年份在1983年,达到2408万人/d,暴露国内生产总值最多的年份在1998年,达到20亿元/d。      

毫米波雷达与无线电探空对云垂直结构探测的一致性分析

在众多种针对云垂直结构的探测中,毫米波雷达可获取云底、云顶、云厚等完整的云垂直结构信息,并可以连续监测云的垂直剖面变化,是有力的探测手段之一。而无线电探空因其直接的测量优势,能直观、确切地描述大气湿度垂直结构,可将其进一步处理生成云垂直结构信息,并作为一种数据源用于与毫米波雷达云垂直结构探测结果进行比对,以评估毫米波雷达针对云宏观垂直结构的探测性能,为毫米波雷达更好地应用于云探测提供参考。通过获取位于北京南郊观象台的毫米波雷达2014年10月28日至2015年2月17日长达113天连续观测的反射率因子以及探空温、压、湿数据,设计或选取合适的方法对二者进行云边界的计算,并进行云高（包括云底高和云顶高）以及云层数的一致性比对分析。结果认为,除对于高层云的云顶高度毫米波雷达由于探测限制不能探测到10 km以上的云顶,某些时刻与探空产生较大差异外,在云底高度以及中低云的云顶高度上可以与探空观测取得很好的匹配效果,对于云的垂直分层上二者也有较强的一致性。该毫米波雷达具有较为准确并连续刻画10 km以下云垂直结构的能力。     

气候模式中云的垂直重叠及其辐射传输问题研究进展

概述了全球气候模式中云的垂直重叠的处理方法及其辐射物理过程的最新研究进展。从云垂直重叠模型的构造、模型在气候模式中的实现方式,得到与观测一致的云重叠结构所采用的数据和方法、重叠云的辐射传输等方面,给出了针对这一国际研究难点问题的最新研究进展。关于气候模式中云的垂直重叠问题的研究至今已取得了许多成果,表现在:重叠模型上有了更为科学的描述形式(如指数衰减重叠);重叠云的辐射传输也有了更快速的处理方法(如蒙特卡洛独立柱近似)并被广泛应用;连续的三维云遥感观测(如CloudSat/CALIPSO)和云分辨尺度的三维云模式的发展为在气候模式中精确描述云的垂直结构提供了丰富的观测资料和模式数据。但是,气候模式中现有的云重叠结构处理及其辐射传输方法还远不够完善,仍然存在很多没有解决的问题需要在未来进行探索。