Sensitivity analysis of planetary boundary layer schemes using the WRF model in Northern Colombia during 2016 dry season

This study conducted meteorological simulations in northern Colombia by analyzing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes available in the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study area included three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 18 km, 6 km, and 2 km, with 38 vertical levels. The evolution and structure of the PBL were analyzed during the driest months (March, April, and May 2016) and in regions with the highest particulate matter concentrations. Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model was performed with two local and two non-local PBL schemes. The results were validated using observations of the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and surface wind speed collected from three meteorological stations in the area. The PBL heights were experimentally determined using radiosonde data provided by a station located in the center of the study area. Variations in PBL heights were estimated using linear regression methods and minimization of statistical errors for the bulk Richardson number, as well as analysis of vertical temperature and wind profiles. The WRF model reliably reproduced the daily values and diurnal cycles of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed within the PBL and accounted for the influence of topography and sea breezes. Horizontal heat advection dominates the upwelling of air masses when sea breezes are active. The onshore wind direction starts to change from east to northwest, implying a decay in the land breeze regime. All schemes overestimate the mixing height and tend to underestimate surface air temperature values at night. All show wetter conditions and underestimate wind speed. Although the non-local Yonsei University (YSU) scheme shows the best performance, it also shows the largest sources of errors when determining the behavior of the surface layer during stable conditions. Relative humidity and wind speed estimates provided by the local Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino (MYNN) scheme were closer to those recorded at the meteorological stations.     

雨滴谱谱形参数对梅雨降水模拟能力的影响

实际观测表明雨滴谱的谱形参数(μ_r)具有显著的时空分布特征,而微物理参数化方案中往往将其设定为常数。基于WRF 3.5.1模式中的Milbrandt 2-mon(MY)双参数方案,针对四次典型的江淮梅雨降水过程,利用江淮梅雨的实际雨滴谱观测资料结果,分析MY方案中诊断雨滴谱谱形参数的处理方法对梅雨降水模拟效果的影响。结果表明:利用雨滴谱斜率诊断μ_r的处理方式对梅雨降水的系统性偏差有一定的改善能力,对降水落区分布的局地性特征能够发挥一定的修正作用。较强降水对μ_r的完善表现出更显著的改善倾向。耦合经验公式后,μ_r总体增加,对流层中低层的μ_r随降水强度增加而降低。与μ_r直接相关的雨滴质量加权末速度的增加和雨水含水量的减小是改进试验中降水变化的直接原因。环境场的水汽与动力条件的改变是降水变化的重要间接原因,云物质的响应变化以及降水位置强度的宏观特征演变与此密切相关。强弱降水的改善程度的差异主要源于各自物理量场的响应特征的不同。强降水的暖云云物质特征变化趋势虽与弱降水时一致,但变化幅度等差异显著。弱降水时,物理量场对μ_r的响应特征表现出较为一致的变化趋势和一定的线性特征;而强降水条件下,云物理过程以及同环境条件之间的反馈作用更加复杂,冰云和环境场的响应特征往往没有显著规律可循。     

Managed Temporary Labour Migration of Pacific Islanders to Australia and New Zealand in the Early Twenty-first Century

ABSTRACT

Circular migration was one of several enduring themes in Graeme Hugo’s highly productive research career. Although his specialist field was Asian population movement, during the 2000s he became increasingly interested in labour migration in the Pacific Islands. This paper reviews the development of two managed circular migration schemes targeting Pacific labour that emerged following the UN High-level Dialogue on International Migration and Development in 2006. New Zealand’s Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme and Australia’s Seasonal Worker Program (SWP) have attracted international attention as the kind of ‘best practice’ temporary labour migration schemes that Hugo had in mind when he emphasised the positive contributions that circular forms of mobility could make to development in both source and destination countries. The two schemes have transformed mobility between the participating countries and have played a major role in the negotiations over a free-trade agreement between Pacific Forum countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Although the schemes have been in operation for almost 10 years, this paper argues that they are not becoming ‘business as usual’; they embody complex systems of relationships between multiple stakeholders that require ongoing management to ensure that they do not become traps for low-skilled, low-paid ‘permanent’ temporary workers.     

探空资料云检测及其统计研究

基于已知的云垂直结构判断的方法,将相对湿度阈值法与温度露点法相结合,并加以改进,得到更加科学有效的云垂直结构判断方法。利用南京地区探空站的探空资料数据,分析得到了该地区的云垂直结构参数,并对全年云垂直结构特征进行了统计分析。经过统计分析发现:这种改进的相对湿度阈值法是科学有效的;南京地区夏秋季节有云的概率大,多层云的状况较多;春冬季节有云的概率相对较小,单层云的状况较多;云层厚度呈现出"夏厚冬薄"、中低云厚而高云薄的规律。     

三套冰晶核化参数化方案的对比分析

基于大气模式CAM5对比分析了三套基于物理过程发展而来的冰晶核化参数化方案,包括BN方案、KL方案和CAM5自带的LP方案。针对三个方案的离线测试结果表明,由LP和BN方案计算得出的冰晶数浓度随硫酸盐溶液滴的数浓度增加而明显增加,而KL方案对硫酸盐溶液滴的数浓度不敏感;CAM5模拟结果显示,这三套方案得出的云辐射强迫、冰晶数浓度及其概率分布非常相似,基本上都接近观测。但是,使用KL方案得出的全球平均云长波辐射强迫从工业革命前到当代增加0.05 W·m~(-2),明显低于LP方案的0.36 W·m~(-2)和BN方案的0.33 W·m~(-2);由此可见,选择哪个冰晶核化参数化方案不会明显影响模式对冰云的模拟性能,但对评估人为产生气溶胶的间接效应可能有显著影响。     

对流尺度数值预报中的云物理初始化方法改进及个例试验

通过在云初始化方案中增加由地表感热和潜热通量确定的对流尺度速度作为对流判据,同时增加层云云冰、云水计算方案,改进云分析方法,并基于第2代华东快速更新循环同化模式预报系统,针对2015年4月28日华东强对流个例,进行对比试验,分析了改进的云初始化方案对云分析结果和模式预报效果的影响。试验表明:在云分析中增加对流判据,使得平均40%左右的云分析格点判定为非对流格点,对流格点分布与正的感热通量分布相似,在陆地上有显著日变化。在对流和层云格点判定之后,增加层云云冰、云水计算方案分析层云格点,显著地减小了模式初始场的云冰、云水混合比,有效地减弱了模式积分初始阶段云冰、云水含量的剧烈调整,尤其是在陆地区域。采用改进的云初始化方案进行预报,可以减少模式前1 h和前6 h的降水强度;尤其在个例的循环试验中,强降水中心强度和面积的预报比原方案显著减弱。      

毫米波云雷达冻雨 降雪微物理和动力特征分析

目前冬季冻雨和降雪垂直结构的精细化研究十分缺乏,为开展这方面的研究,对垂直指向Ka波段毫米波云雷达冬季在贵州威宁观测的功率谱数据进行反射率因子、速度谱宽参数的提取,且新颖地提取了可以反映粒子下落过程变化的偏度参数。通过反演空气垂直运动速度得到粒子的下落末速度,进而得到垂直方向上的平均粒子半径,随后分析了垂直方向上液态水含量和冰水含量的变化,并结合探空数据及各参数在垂直结构上的变化分析了下落过程中粒子的发展变化过程。分析结果表明:冻雨回波特征是片状不均匀结构,而降雪的丝缕状结构明显;冻雨和降雪过程初始形成的平均粒子半径分别在40和120μm附近;冻雨过程粒子从初始形成到迅速碰并形成大的粒子并开始下落大约要0.2 km左右;云顶高度较云中液态水含量、冰水含量的高度高0.1 km左右,高出范围内的云内含水量很小,各参数在垂直结构上的变化相一致。     

利用全球温盐观测剖面计划资料估算太平洋上层跨等密度面混合

基于全球多年来积累的大量温盐观测剖面计划资料,利用精细尺度参数化方案估算了太平洋上层600米区域内的跨等密度面混合系数。结果表明,在不同季节跨等密度面混合系数的整体分布类似,但是细节上存在很大的不同。跨等密度面混合系数的加强与底部摩擦、海表面近惯性能量输入、赤道效应等因素密切相关。由于粗糙的地形,混合在东北太平洋门多西诺断裂带附近存在明显加强。同时,在南大洋西风带区域,由于大风引起的近惯性能量输入也导致了混合的强化。 与前人的研究结果相比,本文的估算具有更好的空间覆盖率以及更高的分辨率,更重要的是我们的结果体现了季节性变化。由于我们给出的是网格化产品,非常适合在数值模式中的应用。     

Negotiating Indigenous benefits from payment for ecosystem service (PES) schemes

This paper draws on research conducted with Aboriginal land managers across Northern Australia to show how and why payments for ecosystem service (PES) schemes should be framed around Indigenous rights to and relationships with their traditional estates. PES schemes offer opportunities to recognize and support Aboriginal communities' land and sea management knowledge and practices, and there is strong evidence that Indigenous communities are seeking to engage with such schemes. We focus on Aboriginal savanna landscape management, particularly traditional burning practices, to extend the ecosystem services framework to recognize Indigenous values and interactions with their lands as a critical service for Indigenous well-being. Drawing on case-study analysis of PES projects negotiated to support Aboriginal fire management programs across Northern Australia, we show how cultural ecosystem services can be applied to represent the active, dynamic and often interdependent relationships inherent in Indigenous human-environment relationships.     

GRAPES_Meso区域模式积云计算方案引进及预报效果检验

云量在模式中的准确模拟既是一个重点问题,也是一个难点问题。经评估发现,在GRAPES_Meso（Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）模式中存在模拟云量偏少的问题,而ECMWF模式中的积云云量计算方案对云量模拟具有一定优势。鉴于此,本文借鉴ECMWF积云云量计算方案对GRAPES中尺度模式中的云量计算方案进行了适当改进,并通过影响试验模拟三维云量和地面温度来验证其改进效果。结果表明:较改进前,改进云量方案模拟的云量增多,单层云量更加准确,垂直方向云层结构改进效果明显;地面温度与观测值对比误差减小。综合分析模拟结果,认为改进云量计算方案在GRAPES模式中对云量和地面温度的模拟有较好的改进。