Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

MM5中新边界层方案的引入和对比试验

本文介绍了一种新的边界层方案，即E－ε－1方案，并用五种层结下的通量廓线关系计算地面通量，将其引入到中尺度数值天气预报模式MM5中，并用新的边界层方案对江淮流域存季暴雨进行了短期模拟，与此同时，对新的方案和模式原有的各种边界层方案作了比较，对此得到了一些有价值的结果。     

云顶充满度的特征分析

本文采用GMS－5红外云母，提取了一个描述云顶结构特征的参数一云顶充满度VS。结合地面观测资料，引入了云高参数DTS，得到并分析了参数VS随云高DTS的分布特征，同时还讨论了VS的天气学意义。     

MM5模式中不同对流参数化方案的比较试验

应用MM5中尺度模式, 在60、20和10 km模式分辨率下, 分别选用4种不同对流参数化方案 (KUO方案、GRELL方案、KAIN-FRITSCH方案和BETTS-MILLER方案, 以下简称KU、GR、KF和BM方案) 对1996年8月3~4日石家庄暴雨过程进行数值模拟试验.模拟结果的对比分析及其与观测的比较表明:主要雨带位置对参数化方案并不是十分敏感, 但随分辨率提高, 雨带分布特征的模拟更接近实况; 当分辨率提高到10 km时, 虚假的降水中心也明显增加; 模拟的暴雨中心强度随分辨率的提高而增强并随参数化方案的不同有所变化, 但均比实况偏弱.分析还发现, MM5模式的GR、KF及BM方案的次网格降水对总降水的贡献率随分辨率的提高而减小, 而KU方案的情况则呈现出不合理的缓慢增加态势.虽然4种方案下模拟的水平环流特征有较好的一致性, 但模拟的云物理特征和垂直运动特征还是存在一定差别的, 这种差别对定点、定量降水和天空状况、地面气温、湿度等要素的准确预报都会产生影响.因此, 在预报和模拟中应考虑预报和研究对象的特点来选择对流参数化方案.     

A Simple And General Subgrid Model Suitable Both For Surface Layer And Free-Stream Turbulence

A new and general approach is presented to allow standard subgrid schemes to besuitable both for surface layer and free-stream turbulence. Simple modificationsto subgrid schemes are proposed and derived for any vertical stabilityconditions. They are simple to implement in models and are suitable for morecomplicated simulations such as large-eddy simulation with inhomogeneoussurface conditions or complex topography. They are also applicable to mesoscaleand large-scale models. These modifications are physically justified by recentmeasurements of spectra close to the ground. The spectral analysis presentedshows how the energy deficit of blocked turbulence for a given dissipation(`anomalous dissipation') dramatically affects the coefficients to be used insubgrid schemes. As shown for neutral and convective cases with wind shear,these changes allow us to substantially improve the prediction of profiles for themean quantities in the surface layer. Agreement with similarity laws in the unstablecase is found up to about 0.2z_i, for simulated shear, stabilityprofiles and dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy.     

东亚夏季风降水和环流数值模拟对不同对流参数化方案的敏感性

A 5-level spectral AGCM (ImPKU-5LAGCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated results of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia to different cumulus parameterization schemes in the climatological-mean case and in the cases of weak and strong Asian summer monsoons,respectively. The results simulated with the Arakawa-Schubert＇s(hereafter A-S＇s), Kuo＇s and Manabe＇s cumulus parameterization schemes show that these simulated distributions of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia depend strongly on the cumulus parameterization schemes either in the climatological-mean case or in the cases of weak and strong Asian summer monsoons. From the simulated results, it might be shown that the Kuo scheme appears to be more suitable for the simulation of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia than the A-S scheme or the Manabe scheme, although the A-S scheme is somewhat better in the simulations of the tropical rainfall. This might be due to that the Kuo＇s cumulus parameterization scheme is able to reflect well the characteristics of rainfall cloud system in the East Asian summer monsoon region, where the rainfall system used to be a mixing of cumulus and stratus.     

SOME NEW UNDERSTANDINGS OF LAND-SURFACE PROCESSES IN ARID AREA FROM THE HEIFE

The survey for the HEIFE(Atmosphere-Land Surface Processes Experiment at Heihe RiverBasin,Western China)is given in the paper.The following basic subjects for land-surface process-es in arid areas are studied:(1)the general characteristics of the energy budget on ground surfacein arid areas;(2)the parameterization of the land surface processes;(3)the interaction betweenoasis and its desert circumstances,a special phenomenon in arid areas.The analysis shows that thesensible heat flux in the surface energy budget is in the majority,and the latent heat flux may beneglected.The influence of atmospheric stratification stability on the turbulent transfer of energyand substance must be considered in parameterization of land surface processes in arid areas.The“cold island effect”phenomenon in oasis and the“humidity inversion”phenomenon in desert nearoasis are the result of the interaction between them.The results would improve the understandingof land surface processes in arid areas.     

Influence of Clouds on UV Irradiance at Ground Level and Backscattered Exittance

The influence of various cloud parameters and the interactions with the ground albedo and the solar zenith angle have been studied by means of model simulations. The radiative transfer model suitable for a cloudy atmosphere as well as for a clear atmosphere has been developed on the basis of the Discrete Ordinate Method. This study leads to a general understanding for cloudy atmospheres: in the presence of a uniform cloud, the cloud scattering is dominant to molecular and aerosol scattering, and it is also wavelength-independent; the ratio of transmitted irradiance in a cloudy atmosphere to that in the background clear atmosphere is independent of cloud height and solar zenith angle. That’s to say, the radiation downwelling out of a cloud is quite isotropic; it decreases approximately exponentially with the cloud optical depth at a rate related to the ground albedo; the reflected irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is dependent on cloud optical depth as well as on solar zenith angle, but not on ground albedo for clouds of not very thin optical depth.     

中国大陆卫星反演云参数的评估

该文选取１９８３年７月和１９８４年１月份代表夏季和冬季，利用中国地面气象月报的云量资料以及多年平均的地面观测云气修资料，与中国大陆地区ＩＳＣＣＰ卫星反演的去量和云状资料进行了对比分析。参照大气环流和云天气气候特征，从卫星得到的从云状是比较合理的，但干旱沙漠地区的高云量的估计不足，低云估计偏多。