基于GIS的山区村镇多灾种耦合风险评估

为解决在山区村镇多灾种综合风险评估中忽略灾害间相互作用、对村镇防灾减灾规划指导缺乏的问题,提出基于GIS的多灾种耦合风险评估模型。本文以神农架林区为研究对象,选取山洪、泥石流和滑坡3种主要自然灾害为评价对象,从危险性、易损性两个方面,致灾因子、孕灾环境、承载体暴露性与敏感性、防灾减灾能力四个角度建立评价体系,基于ArcGIS 10.1空间分析技术进行多灾种风险耦合分析,利用风险矩阵完成综合评估。结果显示:神农架自然灾害风险高值区主要分布在林区西部和南部大部分地区、东北部局部地区。该模型提高了多灾种耦合风险评估的准确度、角度精度,改进后的模型具有较高的实用价值。     

塔东北库鲁克塔格地区震旦-奥陶纪地质事件及生储盖组合

塔里木盆地库鲁克塔格地区是重要的油气资源战略接替区域之一,其特殊的构造背景成为研究盆山耦合及区域构造演化的有效切入点。冰川、火山、风暴、浊流等事件沉积的产物,广泛发育于塔东北库鲁克塔格地区震旦—奥陶系的地层中。这些地质事件的发生时期与库鲁克塔格地区的构造演化具有明显的耦合关系。Rodinia超大陆的裂解是全球新元古代冰川沉积的诱发因素,也使库鲁克塔格地区在震旦纪发育冰川相的沉积。发生于早寒武世的火山事件也是Rodinia超大陆同期裂解的表现。在塔东北地区,裂解导致的持续拉张作用一直延续到早奥陶世末期,但在晚寒武世曾发生过一次持续时间较短的构造反转,区域构造应力场由拉张转为挤压,导致南、北沉积相区水体变浅,受到风暴作用影响。在挤压的区域构造背景下,中—晚奥陶世库鲁克塔格急剧隆升,物源供给的加大,为浊流事件的沉积提供了有利条件。另外,区域的构造背景变化也对于该地区的源岩和储层的产生起了决定性的因素。在震旦—早奥陶世晚期拉张的大地构造背景下,早—中寒武世及早奥陶世成为烃源岩的主要形成时期。优质储层主要为碳酸盐岩及碎屑岩,发育于晚震旦世、晚寒武世、中—晚奥陶世。孔隙类型主要为晶间孔、溶孔、裂缝等。这些源岩和储层与地层中的泥岩在垂向上组成多套生储盖组合。     

Assessing and mapping human well-being for sustainable development amid flood hazards: Poyang Lake Region of China

Less developed places that are affected by climatic impacts face great challenges to future development. Place-based assessments that look at both the development level and climatic impacts on development are important for understanding the current state of human well-being and generating insights into how to facilitate sustainable development in the future. We carry out an assessment of human well-being in the Poyang Lake Region of China (PLR), using GIS, remote sensing, and socio-economic data. We measure human well-being in three aspects of (i) development level, (ii) exposure of development to flooding, and (iii) sensitivity of development to flooding. Following the United Nations Development Programme's human development index, we examine development through measures of life expectancy, literacy, and income. We first use a digital elevation model and GIS data on levees to map flood hazard in PLR. Based on the flood hazard map, we then derive quantitative measures of exposure and sensitivity of the development in a town to flooding. Our assessment indicates that development in PLR overall is highly exposed and sensitive to flooding. There are significant variations in different aspects of human well-being among the 298 towns in the region. These variations suggest different sustainable development pathways and policy interventions for different places. We discuss the potential usefulness of our approach for other similar places.     

Projects,people, professions: Trajectories of learning through a mega-event (the London 2012 case)

Planning and organization of large-scale events such as Olympic Games are accomplished by several specialized project organizations, in charge of securing finances, completing the infrastructures, negotiating with multiple stake-holders and the day-to-day management of the actual event. These organizations have to cope with a key challenge. Due to their inherently temporary nature they cannot provide the specialized knowledge and specific “project capabilities” (Davies and Brady) on their own, but have to mobilize them from the past and from outside their boundaries, e.g. from previous events or other mega-projects in the host city. Rather than in permanent organizations, then, the knowledge on preparing and performing mega-events is primarily sedimented and embodied in professionals.Drawing on the planning and organization of the London Olympics 2012 as empirical case, the paper addresses, on the one hand, this particular mobilization process. On the other, it looks at how this process is intertwined with three different trajectories that both affect and are affected by the mega-event: the trajectory of the project that aims to recruit necessary skills; the trajectory of individual persons who perceive working for the Olympics as a rewarding episode in their careers; the trajectory of professional communities that expect learning benefits for the construction and project management industry in the UK.     

Geochemical characteristics of Holocene aeolian deposits and their environmental significance in the Mu Us Desert,northern China

This paper addresses the surface and Holocene aeolian deposits in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, N. China, systematically analysing the evolution of the geochemical characteristics of aeolian sand–palaeosol sequences and their environmental significance. Our results indicate that the geochemical components of the Holocene aeolian deposits and surface deposits had the similar material sources, sediment transport and deposition processes in the study region, which were dominated by SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and Na₂O. In the weathering process of the Jinjie (JJ) profile, the Na, K, and Si presented the slight leaching and migration in general, while the other elements were relatively accumulated. The Holocene aeolian deposits and surface deposits incurred weaker geochemical weathering under cold and dry conditions and were only weakly leached, which implies a relatively arid environment in the Holocene epoch and the modern era. The weathering degree was controlled by the regional temperature and precipitation, and was probably more sensitive to the precipitation changes. In the sedimentary profile, the geochemical parameters and migration of elements demonstrated that there have been several alternating warm–wet and cold–dry intervals in the Mu Us Desert in the Holocene epoch; there were relatively warm and wet conditions prior to 4.6 ka, and it has been cold and dry since then. Six millennial‐scale dry events were recorded during the Holocene, which were not only accordant with the history of palaeoclimatic changes in the different latitudes and archives of the Northern Hemisphere, but also correspond to the millennial‐scale variation of cosmic radiation and solar activity during that period. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2001-2012年新疆融雪型洪水时空分布特征

利用2001-2012年新疆区域内发生的融雪型洪水资料,分析研究了近12 a新疆融雪型洪水时空分布特征.结果表明:新疆融雪型洪水与前一年10月至当年3月新疆全站总累计降水量大小相关,降水量大的年份,对应的融雪型洪水发生次数也多;冬末至夏季融雪型洪水在北疆地区基本上是从西向东、从南向北的先后顺序出现,而在南疆地区的融雪洪水基本上是从西向东、从北向南先后顺序出现.新疆融雪型洪水主要集中出现在春夏季,其中,北疆地区在3月,南疆地区在7月发生较多;伊犁河谷、昌吉、阿勒泰、和田等地区及青河、乌鲁木齐、阿克陶、民丰等市县是新疆融雪型洪水的高发区.     

新疆伊犁盆地黄土古气候记录与Heinrich事件对比分析

伊犁盆地作为中国黄土高原与欧洲黄土区的过渡区域,其第四纪古气候研究对于揭示全球气候驱动及耦合机制具有重要的意义.通过对伊犁盆地塔勒德晚更新世黄土-古土壤剖面粒度、低频磁化率及地球化学元素分析,探讨了西风区黄土-古土壤序列中古气候指标变化特征及记录的全球气候突变事件.结果表明:古土壤层中粒径10μm颗粒物含量明显高于黄土层,与之相反的是古土壤层中的低频磁化率、Zr/Rb值和元素Ti含量均小于黄土层,且元素Ti含量与Zr/Rb间具有较高的相关性.黄土-古土壤剖面中古气候代用指标清晰的记录了6次Heinrich(H)事件及Younger Drays(YD)事件,但YD事件、H1、H2、H5和H6事件变幅较H3和H4事件显著,古气候指标与格陵兰冰芯δ18O、季风区李家塬粒度和洛川、西峰及环县Zr/Rb值均具有较好的一致性,所记录的气候事件较李家塬、洛川、西峰更为显著.结合已有研究说明,Heinrich和D-O旋回等气候事件是由西风区向季风区传递的,MIS3阶段温度的升高和常年受西风的影响是造成塔勒德气候环境变化特征的主要控制因素.     

Wind wave characteristics and engineering environment of the South China Sea

Wave simulation was conducted for the period 1976 to 2005 in the South China Sea (SCS) using the wave model, WAVEWATCH-III. Wave characteristics and engineering environment were studied in the region. The wind input data are from the objective reanalysis wind datasets, which assimilate meteorological data from several sources. Comparisons of significant wave heights between simulation and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement in general. By statistical analysis, the wave characteristics, such as significant wave heights, dominant wave directions, and their seasonal variations, were discussed. The largest significant wave heights are found in winter and the smallest in spring. The annual mean dominant wave direction is northeast (NE) along the southwest (SW)-NE axis, east northeast in the northwest (NW) part of SCS, and north northeast in the southeast (SE) part of SCS. The joint distributions of wave heights and wave periods (directions) were studied. The results show a single peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and periods, and a double peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and mean directions. Furthermore, the main wave extreme parameters and directional extreme values, particularly for the 100-year return period, were also investigated. The main extreme values of significant wave heights are larger in the northern part of SCS than in the southern part, with the maximum value occurring to the southeast of Hainan Island. The direction of large directional extreme H _s values is focus in E in the northern and middle sea areas of SCS, while the direction of those is focus in N in the southeast sea areas of SCS.     

JJI甚低频台站信号对太阳耀斑事件的响应特性

太阳耀斑发生时,日地空间的X射线通量会随之增大,进而影响到地球电离层的电子密度分布,导致地球-电离层波导状态发生改变,因此接收到的甚低频(VLF,Very Low Frequency)信号会表现出对应的扰动现象.2017年9月8日,位于湖北省内武汉和随州两站点的VLF接收机分别监测到与X射线太阳耀斑相关的来自日本宫崎县(130°49′E,32°04′N)的JJI甚低频台站信号(22.2 kHz)的振幅异常事件.分析当日的数据发现JJI信号的振幅对不同的太阳耀斑出现不同的响应类型,而且对于同一个耀斑,两地的信号响应类型不尽相同.通过统计2017—2019年间与太阳耀斑相关的JJI信号振幅扰动事件,发现两接收站点的JJI信号响应类型都与耀斑强度及其发生时间存在一定的关系,且呈现出四种响应类型,即两次上升下降型、先上升后下降型、下降型和上升型,但是四种响应类型的事件占比不同.拟合结果表明信号的扰动幅度与X射线通量的积分成正相关,但是两站点的线性拟合斜率存在差异.JJI信号到武汉和随州均属于近似沿纬度方向的短距离传播,且两接收站点相距较近,因此两传播路径大致相似.研究两路径上JJI信号对太阳耀斑响应的差异性有助于理解VLF信号的传播以及探索其在太阳活动监测方面的应用.     

The behaviour of beach elevation contours in response to different wave energy environments

Within the context of a warming climate, there are wide and increasing concerns about the way beaches respond to different wave energy environments. However, behavioural differences in changes in beach elevation contours (including shorelines) in different wave energy environments remain unknown. Thus, it is unilateral to evaluate the changes in beaches based on a single elevation contour (e.g. shoreline) in coastal engineering and management applications. In this study, based on the collected shoreline and wave energy data of two international beaches, as well as the measured beach elevation contour data from Yintan Beach and the corresponding wave energy data simulated by Xbeach, our results show that frequency distributions of beach elevation contour changes exhibit distinct features under different wave energy environments. Under high wave energy environments, the frequency distributions of beach elevation contour changes show a Gaussian distribution. However, frequency distributions of beach elevation contour changes present a power law, intermediate between the logarithmic and Gaussian distributions under low and moderate wave energy environments, respectively. Furthermore, the conceptual model of beach elevation contour changes constructed by this study indicates that the relative importance of the wave energy and sediment resistance determines this phenomenon. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd