我国东南沿海午后短时降水极端峰值强度与湿度和地表气温的关联

利用中国东南沿海地区55个站点的逐时降水、日平均地面温湿场、低空气温露点差及OISST海表温度资料,对午后短时降水的极端峰值强度与湿度和地表气温的关联进行分析。结果表明,东南沿海地区午后短时降水极端峰值强度随气温的变化趋势存在明显变化,日最高气温低于29℃时,峰值强度随气温升高而上升;日最高气温高于29℃时,峰值强度随气温升高而下降。分析水汽条件作用发现,峰值强度在高温条件下随气温的升高而下降的现象与相对湿度变化有关,日最高气温较高时,相对湿度随气温的升高而大幅减小。初步分析可知,当陆地达到较高温度并进一步增温时,附近海域海表温度变化不大,使得洋面水汽含量增加较少。在陆地水汽主要来自于海洋的情况下,伴随陆地的进一步升温,地表相对湿度将减小。     

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN SETTLF, MENT IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA IN NEOLITHIC AGE

Dating data, altitude of Neolithic sites, climatic changes from sedimentary records and previous research results were collected and analyzed to detect possible connections between climatic changes and human activities in the Changjiang River Delta in the Neolithic Age. The results indicated that hydrological changes greatly impacted the human activities in the study region. Low-lying geomorphology made the floods and sea level changes become the important factors affecting human activities, especially the altitude change of human settlements. People usually moved to higher places during the periods characterized by high sea level and frequent floods to escape the negative influences from water body expansion, which resulted in cultural hiatus in certain profiles. However, some higher-altitude settlements were not the results of climatic changes but the results of social factors, such as religious ceremony and social status. Therefore, further research will be necessary for the degree and types of impacts of climatic changes on human activities in the study area at that time.     

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene environmental reconstruction from deltaic deposits in northeast Greenland

Terraces of different age in the Zackenberg delta, located at 74°N in northeast Greenland, have provided the opportunity for an interdisciplinary approach to the investigation of Holocene glacial, periglacial, pedological, biological and archaeological conditions that existed during and after delta deposition. The raised Zackenberg delta accumulated mainly during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, starting slightly prior to 9500 cal. yr BP (30 m a.s.l.) and continued until at least 6300 cal. yr BP (0.5 m a.s.l.). Evidence of sea‐level change is based on conventional ¹⁴C dates of shells from the marine delta bottomsets, ¹⁴C AMS dating of macroscopic plant material from the foresets and of fluvial deposits. Arthropod and plant remains from 7960 cal. yr BP in the delta foresets include the oldest evidence of the arctic hare in Greenland and evidence of a rich herb flora slightly different from the modern flora. Empetrum nigrum and Salix herbacea remains indicate a summer temperature at least as high as today during delta deposition. Post‐depositional nivation activity, dated by luminescence, lichenometry and Schmidt Hammer measurements indicate mainly late Holocene activity, at least since 2900 yr BP, including Little Ice Age (LIA) avalanche activity. Pedological analyses of fossil podsols in the Zackenberg delta, including ¹⁴C AMS dating of selected organic rich B‐horizons, show continued podsol development during the Holocene Climatic Optimum and into the subsequent colder period of the late Holocene, until 3000–2400 yr BP. A Neo‐Eskimo house ruin found on the lower part of the delta, presently being eroded by the sea, is dated to AD 1800. It presumably was abandoned prior to AD 1869, and suggests that some of the last Eskimos that lived in northeast Greenland might have occupied the Zackenberg delta. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volcanic eruption frequency over the last 45 ky as recorded in Epica-Dome C ice core (East Antarctica) and its relationship with climatic changes

The sulphate glacio-chemical profiles constitute a reliable proxy marker for reconstruction of past volcanic history, assuming a reliable method to distinguish sulphate spikes and to evaluate the flux of individual events is set up. The resulting volcanic event profile is used to reconstruct past event frequencies, and to investigate possible links between volcanism and climatic changes. Volcanic event signatures are useful also in comparing time scales from ice cores drilled at different locations. In this paper, a new method to pick out volcanic signals is proposed. It improves on methods based on the calculation of a threshold using a general mean value plus a multiple of the standard deviation by adding: (1) quantification of nonvolcanic sulphate contributions; (2) sulphate fluxes, instead of concentrations, accounting for accumulation rate changes; (3) data treatment using a log-normal statistic, instead of a Gaussian-type distribution, to take into account the real sulphate distribution; (4) a smoothed curve (weighted fitting) to better understand the residual variability of the sulphate background.This method is used to detect volcanic events throughout the 45 ky time span of the EDC96 ice core, drilled at Dome C on the East Antarctic plateau. A total of 283 volcanic signatures are recovered, with a mean of 6.3 events per millennium. The temporal event frequencies indicate that the last 2000 years were probably characterized by the highest volcanic activity in the period covered by the core and that there is no clear link between number of events recorded and climatic changes.     

一种基于流形正则化的半监督指纹定位算法

针对传统指纹定位算法采集带标签训练数据成本高的问题,本文提出了一种基于流形正则化的半监督指纹定位算法。首先以流形假设为依据,利用批量输入的带标签数据与无标签数据之间的相似度构建图拉普拉斯算子;然后与极限学习机算法相结合,通过随机特征映射建立隐含层;最后在流形正则化框架下,求解隐含层和输出层之间的权值矩阵,从而建立位置估计模型。仿真结果表明,与INN、SVR、ELM 3种算法相比,该算法的训练和测试时间相对较短,且在带标签训练数据稀疏的前提下仍能保持较高的准确率与稳定性。     

基于光谱—空间特征的ASTER影像岩性分类研究——以甘肃北山白峡尼山地区为例

遥感岩性制图是地质填图中的重要工作,基于光谱特征的岩性分类易受到色调、纹理等因素影响导致精度不佳。前人进行岩性自动分类研究多关注影像的光谱特征,而忽略空间特征,笔者等基于甘肃北山白峡尼山地区ASTER影像,将支持向量机、极限学习机两种机器学习分类方法与基于空间特征的快速漂移算法相结合进行岩性分类。结果表明支持向量机分类总体精度为89.17%;极限学习机不但具有需调节参数少的优势,且分类精度和速度均优于支持向量机,分类总体精度达96.70%;利用快速漂移算法提取的影像空间特征可有效减少错分区,提升岩性分类效果。研究证实将基于光谱特征的极限学习机和基于空间特征的快速漂移算法结合的岩性分类方法具有客观、高效、高精度等优势,可为后续地质填图和找矿勘查工作提供可靠数据支撑,在遥感岩性分类领域具有较高的推广价值。     

里下河地区极端降水时空变化及未来趋势分析

随着全球变暖,极端天气事件逐渐增加,影响着社会经济发展,揭示区域极端降水时空变化对防洪减灾具有重要意义。基于1960—2019年的逐日降水,通过MK趋势检验、小波分析、重标极差以及克里金插值方法,从强度、频率和持续性三方面分析里下河地区的极端降水指数,并进一步探究其未来趋势变化。结果表明：（1）里下河地区多年平均降水为1017.25 mm,呈不显著增加趋势;空间分布差异明显,总体呈自西北向东南逐渐增加的分布。（2）研究区内各站点极端降水指数变化不同,总体而言,极端降水强度、频率均呈现增加趋势,持续性呈减少趋势。（3）极端降水指数变化过程中存在3类尺度的周期性变化,在整个时间尺度上存在3个偏多中心和2个偏少中心。（4）除R10mm和R20mm未来变化趋势与过去趋势相反且呈弱持续性,其他极端降水指数未来变化趋势与过去相一致,且过去总体趋势对未来趋势的影响时间长度在9~16年左右。研究结果为里下河地区科学合理应对气象灾害、合理配置水资源提供依据。     

前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。