High precision locations of LP events on Mt. Etna: Reconstruction of the fluid-filled volume

During 1991–93 at Mount Etna, long-period (LP) events occurring in swarms characterized the evolution of the eruption. The presence of multiplets i.e. groups of events with similar waveform signatures, has been recognized within this activity. Traditional techniques for locating LP events do not allow obtaining reliable hypocenters, which have only succeeded in placing earthquakes in a roughly 1 km² area slightly east of the Mt. Etna Northeast Crater. Hypocenters have been relocated in two steps: the absolute location has been improved using Thurber’s code and a complex 3D velocity model; a highly precise relative location has been applied on multiplets to define the source geometry. 3D locations and high precision analysis suggest that during the 1991–93 eruption the resonator producing LP events was a part of the uppermost Northeast Crater conduit, measuring 210 meters in height and 45–50 meters in diameter.     

广西厚皮甜瓜气候条件分析

针对厚皮甜瓜生产的气象条件，结合广西的气候特点，提出广西厚皮甜瓜生产的气候条件分析，为厚皮甜瓜在广西的生产发展提出一些建议。     

清咸丰六年长江三角洲地区旱灾气候背景分析

介绍了清咸丰六年(1856年)长江三角洲地区大旱的发生情况,认为此次大旱持续时间长,属夏秋连旱;旱情严重,波及面广,几乎影响到了长江三角洲的所有地区,太湖流域北部、南部,江北淮南地区最严重,太湖东部的苏州、松江二府、太仓直隶州的灾情略轻,江北东部的通州直隶州灾情也较轻,最东边的海门直隶厅甚至没有找到大灾的明确记载。大旱之后继发了大蝗灾。在此基础上,对引发此次严重干旱的气候背景进行了分析。分析结果认为,副热带高压强度偏弱,但脊线位置偏北,造成了季风雨带偏北,长江三角洲地区长时间处在副高控制下,从5月底至8月底没有出现连续性降水,造成了罕见的大旱;而春季降水不足,又加剧了灾情。     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change.     

Early Pleistocene climate changes in the central Mediterranean region as inferred from integrated pollen and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope analyses

Vegetation inherited from a Pliocene subtropical climate evolved through obliquity oscillations and global cooling leading to modern conditions. An integrated, highly time-resolved record of pollen and stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of Globigerina bulloides) was obtained to understand vegetation responses to Early Pleistocene climate changes. Continental and marine responses are compared in the Central Mediterranean region with a particular consideration of environmental changes during anoxic events.Pollen data illustrate vegetation dynamics as follows: [1] development of mesothermic elements (warm and humid conditions); [2] expansion of mid- and high-altitude elements (cooler but still humid conditions); and [3] strengthening of steppe and herb elements (cooler and dry conditions). These successions correlate with precession. δ¹⁸O variations recorded by Globigerina bulloides define two cycles (MIS 43-40) related to obliquity. At northern low- to mid-latitudes, the pollen signal records temperature and wetness changes related to precession even during global climate changes induced by obliquity. This may result in unexpected increasing wetness during glacial periods, which has to be considered specific to the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region. Lastly, an analysis of anoxic events reveals that enhanced runoff is indicated by increasing frequency of the riparian trees Liquidambar and Zelkova.     

21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展

由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。      

Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerging During the Last 40 Years

A disproportionate increase in precipitation coming from intense rain events, in the situation of general warming (thus, an extension of the vegetation period with intensive transpiration) and an insignificant change in total precipitation could lead to an increase in the frequency of potentially serious type of extreme events: prolonged periods without precipitation (even when the mean seasonal rainfall totals increase). This paper investigates whether this development is already occurring during the past several decades over North America south of 55°N, for the same period when changes in frequency of intense precipitation events are being observed. Lengthy strings of “dry” days without sizeable (>1.0 mm) precipitation were assessed only during the warm season (defined as a period when mean daily temperature is above the 5℃ threshold) when water is intensively used for transpiration and prolonged periods without sizable rainfall represent a hazard for terrestrial ecosystem's health and agriculture. During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (20 days or longer in southeastern Canada, 1 month or longer in the Eastern United States and along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and 2 months or longer in the Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico) has significantly increased. As a consequence, the return period of 1 month long dry episodes over the Eastern U.S. has been reduced more than twofold from 15 to 6~7 years. The longer average duration of dry episodes has occurred during a relatively wet period around most of the continent south of 55°N but is not observed over the Northwestern U.S. and adjacent regions of Southern Canada.      

Investigating the amount of zeroing in modern sediments of River Danube, Austria

Sediments attributed to flooding events of River Danube concerning the bleaching of the optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal were investigated. It is demonstrated that the OSL signal in both quartz and feldspar is not completely but differentially bleached in the sediment grains. Partial bleaching of the samples is clearly indicated by the scatter of equivalent dose determined for several individual single aliquots. It is also shown that residual ages in feldspars are significantly higher than those calculated for quartz. It is furthermore demonstrated that analysing measurement-time dependent equivalent dose estimates is not a suitable method to identify partial bleaching in the investigated sediment grains. However, the transport and deposition process of the investigated samples was probably disturbed by an artificial input of sediment, and this case study may thus not be representative of undisturbed high flood events in the past.     

“碧利斯”引发广西异常暴雨的成因分析

利用常规气象资料和卫星云图等资料对“碧利斯”造成异常暴雨的成因进行了综合分析，结果表明：“碧利斯”登陆减弱成的低压进入广西为强降水提供了动力抬升条件；中低层低压环流与强盛的西南暖湿气流相互作用，为降水云团不断发生和发展提供“燃料”；低层水汽辐合、高层辐散和强烈的上升运动是造成异常暴雨的主要原因。