利用卫星资料试作青藏高原地表净辐射场的气候反演

利用 ERBE和 ISCCP卫星辐射及总云量资料 ,结合已提出的地表短波吸收辐射 ,大气逆辐射以及地表长波辐射的气候反演方法 ,计算出 2 5°～ 4 0°N,75°～ 95°E间 2 .5°× 2 .5°经纬度网络点及高原 63个站点的各月平均地表净辐射 ,绘制出其在高原的分布图 ,揭示其时空分布特征。     

近50年浙江省旱、涝气候变化及特征

用1951－1999年资料详细研究了浙江省的年、季的旱、涝气候变化特征。主要结果：浙江省夏季降水量表现出稳定的增加，其他季节（特别是秋季）的降水有不同程度的减少。每年在浙江省出现大范围旱（或涝）的可能性很大（约80％）。1985年以后浙江每年都要发生大范围的季节性的旱涝。浙江省年、季降水量旱涝有年代际变化。旱、涝发生的气候频率已经有了明显的变化，特别是夏季。奇异谱分析与最大熵谱分析的结果表明夏季、秋季与年的降水量有明显的长期趋势变化，它们还有10年左右的周期，而冬季降水的2年周期振荡特别明显。     

近海热带气旋迅速加强的气候特征

根据我国近海热带气旋发生、发展的气候特点，规定12小时热带气旋中心附近最大风速增值≥10 m/s为迅速加强。通过1949～1990年近海发生迅速加强的84个热带气旋个例分析，阐述了迅速加强时段的时间分布、地区分布及迅速加强前后气象要素变化的气候特征。     

汕头市历史地震影响烈度的分析

本文将所论地震事件视为随机事件。按全概率定理分析了地震对场地的地震动影响(A)和超越给定值的概率P:对地震烈度序列进行了极值统计分析,得到汕头市地震平均重现期及其对应的烈度值。     

The influence of stiffness of the true triaxial testing machine on the rupturing and acoustic emission of rocks and its correlation with seismic activities

This paper introduces how the ratioR of the characteristic stiffness of rock samplevs. the stiffness of testing machines would influence the rupturing process and the acoustic emission (AE) on the part of the tested rock samples. Result of the experiment shows: WhenR>0.20, the rock sample would rupture abruptly; whereas whenR<0.20, the rock samples would rupture slowly. When the samples rupture abruptly, the time-dependent variation of the AE rate takes such a pattern:peak value—stable low values—rises to the maximum value (concentration)—drops back to the minimum value (quiescence)—(rises again)—ruptures. Moreover, smallerR-value tends to be associated with longer quiescence and vice versa. WhenR>1.50, no pre-failure quiescence is detected. When the rock samples rupture slowly, the variation pattern of the AE rate (after the stress has increased to more than 50% of the rupturing stress) is as the following:stable low (or high) values—rises (or drops) to its maximum (or minimum) values and then continues for some time—ruptures. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 223–233, 1991. This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

A Statistical Model for Investigating Climatic Trend Turning Points

A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.     

松辽盆地白垩纪湖侵沉积层序与湖海沟通事件的地球化学记录

松辽白垩纪近海陆相盆地最大湖侵期的泉头组－嫩江组时期，可能发生了三次较大规模的海水入侵事件，时间分别为泉三、四段一青一段（阿尔布期），青二、三段顶部（土仑期）和嫩一、二段（晚桑托－早坎佩尼期）。海水注入使湖盆的水文地球化学和环境地球化学条件均发生改变，并在层序中留下沉积记录。海进期主要表现为：①重同位素组份增加，直至与同期海相层序的同位素组成相同；②介质的盐度指标（Ｓｒ／Ｂａ）、碱度指标（Ｃａ＋Ｍｇ）／（Ｓｉ＋Ａｌ）、还原性指标（Ｚｎ＋Ｎｉ）／Ｇａ和硫通量指标（Ｓ归一化含量）均系统增加。相反，海退期则上述指标显著降低。根据沉积层序的同位素组成、同期海水的同位素组成和同位素分馏的质量平衡关系，可求出研究层段内同位素的海水来源与淡水来源的比例（混合度）为０－５。并由此恢复出海平面升降曲线。     

Storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan

All the available historic records of sea level and appropriate weather charts have been used to study storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. Computed sea levels were compared with hourly observed residual sea levels in De-Kastri. The agreement between computed and observed storm surges is quite satisfactory. The relative importance of various meteorological parameters and bottom topography in formation of the strong storm surge on 20–21 September 1975 was studied numerically.     

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the EI Niño and La Niña events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the EI Niño years and active in the La Niña years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Niño and La Niña years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature(SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble(SVD)method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Niño years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. Which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Niña years.     

石羊河流域干旱气候对ENSO事件的响应及预测分析

根据石羊河流域5个气象站1961—2018年的降水、气温、干旱实况资料,利用气候统计学方法分析ENSO事件对该区气候变化及干旱的影响。结果表明:厄尔尼诺事件会造成流域春季降水偏多,春、秋、冬季气温偏高,易出现暖冬;拉尼娜事件则春季降水偏少,秋季降水偏多,冬季气温偏低,易出现冷冬,中下游发生中度以上春旱、春末夏初旱和伏旱的概率较高。应用1968—2010年旬、月气象要素和大气环流特征量,采用最优子集回归方法,建立降水和干旱统计预测模式,然后结合ENSO事件,通过加权平均法构建集成预测概念模型。对模型进行检验,拟合率与准确率较高,已投入业务使用。