中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展

着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展,其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验;冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法;数值模式研究,特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后,指出了存在的问题,以及研究展望。     

基于MODIS数据不同荒漠植被指数的空间变化研究--以新疆三工河流域为例

通过对三工河流域的实例研究,探讨了干旱区不同下垫面荒漠植被指数的空问变化规律。采用植被信号／土壤噪音对15个植物样方数据进行对比分析,探讨了三工河流域荒漠植被指数的梯度变化及适宜性。结果表明：扇缘溢出带植被指数值最高,其次是山前丘陵带和固定沙丘,较真实地反映出了三工河流域荒漠植被的梯度变化规律;扇缘溢出带的EVI值要比NDVI值离散程度小,趋势平稳,在扇缘溢出带用EVI能更好地反映植被生长状况;山前丘陵带的NDVI值要比EVI值均匀,山前丘陵区用NDVI这一植被指数较好,扇缘溢出带和固定沙丘区用EVI要比用NDVI好。     

中国小型底栖生物研究的40年——进展与展望

基于2016年希腊第16届国际小型底栖生物会议资料及我国已有的信息,本文论述了国内外小型底栖生物的研究概况,着重介绍了我国该领域的主要进展,包括小型底栖生物的方法学、丰度与生物量的分布、海洋线虫和底栖桡足类的分类学、入侵植物种对线虫群落的影响、粒径谱和次级生产力、摄食生态学、实验室培养和生活史、环境检测、海洋线虫的分子生物学与系统演化、生态动力学-水层底栖耦合模型以及人才培养。依据国内外研究现状提出了今后的发展目标和应着重加强的研究方向。     

华南沿海近42年来的气候变化

运用华南沿海6个有代表性的气象观测站1958－1999年的气温与降水资料，对华南沿海地区近42年来的气候作了分析。结果结果：近42年来华南沿海地区气温呈上升趋势（0．188℃／10年），特别是90年代增温十分明显。1998年是近42年来华南沿海地区最暖的一年。以80年代中期为界将华南沿海地区近42年来的气候分为冷、暖两个阶段，则得到为冷期，后为暖期。降水量也呈上升趋势（29．46mm／10年）。     

利用NOAA AVHRR数据研究北半球雪盖气候学特征

利用NOAA卫星图像,研究了北半球、欧亚、北美和青藏高原雪盖气候学特征及其变化趋势.指出北半球、欧亚和北美雪盖气候变化趋势基本一致,年均雪盖面积在1987年前后明显下降; 而青藏高原雪盖面积在1984年后明显下降,说明青藏高原雪盖的年际变化与北半球及欧亚、北美不完全一致.     

Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.     

用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法

介绍了用Gumbel极值分布理论推算气候极值的矩法、Thomas曲线公式和最小二乘法。并计算多年一遇的年最高气温、年最大均风速、年最大日降雨量和年最大波高。指出,变率小的要素极值再现期短;变率大的要素极值再现期长;Thomas曲线公式的计算结果较其它两种方法接近历史实况,且计算简便。     

极地冰盖物质平衡的最新进展与未来挑战

准确地探明冰盖物质平衡状况,对于研究全球变暖背景下海平面变化具有重要的意义,自IPCC AR4(政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告)以来,极地冰盖物质平衡的研究取得了很大进展。本文总结并对比了用卫星测高(雷达测高和激光测高)、物质收支测量和重力测量等方法得到的冰盖物质平衡评估结果,综述了冰盖数值模拟研究在预测冰盖未来的变化趋势以及由此对海平面造成的影响等方面取得的进展,并立足于中国当前的极地冰盖物质平衡研究现状,提出了该研究所面临的挑战。     

气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑制冷采暖能耗的影响

利用天津市地面气象观测站1961—2017年逐小时观测资料,通过TRNSYS软件,对不同节能水平办公建筑供热和制冷能耗,以及居住建筑供热能耗进行动态模拟,定量评估了气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑能耗的影响。结果表明：在供暖期和制冷期,温度均呈现显著上升的趋势,而太阳辐射则呈现下降的趋势,受其影响,1961—2017年办公和居住建筑供热能耗呈现显著下降的趋势,制冷能耗呈现微弱的上升趋势,但气候变化对供热能耗的影响要明显强于制冷能耗;随着建筑节能水平的提升,供热和制冷能耗均有一定程度的下降,其中供热能耗的降幅尤为明显,四步节能居住建筑相比于一步到三步节能居住建筑,供热能耗分别下降了53.56%、50.13%和21.25%。对新建建筑及既有建筑的节能改造,应充分考虑不同节能水平对建筑能耗的影响,结合实际需求酌情进行升级改造。除此之外,建筑节能水平的提升,会使其供热和制冷能耗变化量随温度的上升而减小,说明其对气候变化的敏感性在逐渐减弱。因此,提高建筑节能水平,可以更好的应对气候变化,保证其在未来的使用中耗能更低。     

ESTABLISHING LICHENOMETRIC AGES FOR NINETEENTH- AND TWENTIETH-CENTURY GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS ON SOUTH GEORGIA (SOUTH ATLANTIC)

Glaciers in small mountain cirques on South Georgia respond rapidly and sensitively to changes in South Atlantic climate. The timing and rate of their deglaciation can be used to examine the impact that nineteenth- and twentieth-century climate change has had on the glacial dynamics and terrestrial ecosystems of South Georgia. As part of a reconnaissance study in Prince Olav Harbour (POH), South Georgia, we measured the size of lichens ( Rhizocarpon Ram. em Th. Fr. subgenus. Rhizocarpon group) on ice-free moraine ridges around two small mountain cirques. Our aims were twofold: first, to provide age estimates for lichen colonization, and hence, deglaciation of the moraine ridges, and second, to examine the potential of applying lichenometry more widely to provide deglacial age constraints on South Georgia. In the absence of lichen age-size (dating) curves for South Georgia, we use long-term Rhizocarpon lichen growth-rates from recent studies on sub-Antarctic Islands and the western Antarctic Peninsula to calculate likely age estimates. These data suggest ice retreat from the two outermost moraines occurred between the end of the 'Little Ice Age' (post c. 1870) and the early twentieth century on South Georgia. Lichen colonization of the innermost moraines is probably related to glacier retreat during the second half of the twentieth century, which has been linked to a well-defined warming trend since c. 1950. Patterns of possible nineteenth- and twentieth-century glacial retreat identified in POH need to be tested further by establishing species- and site-specific lichen age-size (dating) curves for South Georgia, and by applying lichenometry to other mountain cirques across South Georgia.