鄂尔多斯周缘地震带地震活动的分期和相关分析

利用最优分割法对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带(区)的地震活动进行了分期,并作了相关分析。结果表明,1000年以来汾渭地震带北段可划为4个活跃期,每个活跃期的中心间距约300年,最大地震为7级,天水—陕南地震带(区)近一、二百年的地震活动可分为持续约10年左右的几个地震簇。所有分期中,海原地震带能量释放最大,且最近仍很活跃。汾渭地震带和海原—银川地震带活跃期存在相关现象,且其南段往往先于北段活跃,目前活动水平较低。该带1900年以来地震还有与河套地震带地震相呼应的现象和沿构造带南北迁移的规律。根据分期和相关结果推测,鄂尔多斯周缘各地震带都存在中强地震背景。其中海原—银川地震带近期发生5—6级或更大地震的可能性较大,天水—陕南地震带近期也有发生中强地震的可能。汾渭地震带虽然存在孕育6级以上大震的背景,但近年还不会发生强震。     

全球变暖对淡水湖泊浮游植物影响研究进展

全球变暖对湖泊生态系统的影响已经成为近年来湖沼学领域的研究热点。本文首先列举了目前研究全球变暖对淡水湖泊浮游植物影响的常用方法：监测数据分析、时空转换、遥感信息提取、控制实验、模型预测和古湖沼学技术等。研究结果表明气候变暖导致的气温升高、湖泊热力分层提前破坏以及无冰期提前等因素可导致春季物候提前;在全球变暖大背景下浮游植物群落结构正朝着蓝藻占优的方向发展,但是不同地区以及不同物种对全球变暖的响应不一致。在营养盐充足的湖泊中,由于全球变暖延长了浮游植物生长季节等,从而能提高浮游植物初级生产力;但在贫营养湖泊中,浮游植物初级生产力与变暖趋势甚至可能呈负相关。由于生态系统往往是多因子的共同作用,这也使得全球变暖对浮游植物群落的影响效应复杂化,区分各因子的净影响份额是目前研究的一个难点;全球变暖引起的风场改变会促进浅水湖泊中营养盐从底泥的释放,同时也会增加水体中悬浮物的浓度而影响水下光场,因此开展气候变化对再悬浮及浮游植物群落结构的影响可能是将来研究的一个切入点。     

气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究

温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用.     

The harpacticoid assemblages (Copepoda: Harpacticoida) in the Western Carpathian spring fens in relation to environmental variables and habitat age

Harpacticoids are an important component of meiofaunal assemblages in springs. No information so far has been available on harpacticoid assemblages of the Western Carpathian spring fens, unique biotopes of high conservation value which cover a very long gradient of mineral content of groundwater, due to the variable geological background setting. Spring fens are isolated habitats of different age which can be assessed by radiocarbon dating of their basal sediment layers. This enables to test a possible effect of habitat age on species composition and species richness. In this study, we examined harpacticoid assemblages in 50 permanent tree-less spring fens (helocrenes) in the Western Carpathians (Slovakia and Czech Republic) in terms of species composition, total abundance, species density, and species richness. We tested mainly the effect of 12 explanatory variables describing water chemistry and temperature, climatic conditions, amount of nutrients, organic carbon, sediment structure, habitat age and size, using Canonical Correspondence Analyses (CCA) with stepwise forward selection. For the computation of species richness rarefaction was used. In total, 20 harpacticoid species were recorded with the total median density of 950 individuals in m⁻². Three significant explanatory variables, Ellenberg Indicator Values of plant community for nutrients, in situ measured pH, and average January temperature, explained together 19.0% (adj. 13.7%) of the total variance in the species composition data. The relationships of harpacticoids to these three explanatory variables were species specific and no uniform response of the total assemblage to the environmental variables was found (in terms of total abundance and number of species). The only exception was the influence of overall unfavourable conditions in the mineral-poor acidic Sphagnum-fens. Pilocamptus pilosus was significantly associated with a higher amount of nutrients and warmer climate. Nutrient enrichment was clearly indicated by a decrease or absence of crenophile Bryocamptus cuspidatus, and accompanied by an increase in ubiquitous Attheyella crassa. Moraria brevipes was confined to low pH, B. cuspidatus showed a high tolerance for low pH, whereas Bryocamptus echinatus preferred alkaline conditions. Despite a significant correlation between habitat age and species density we found no clear evidence that any colonisation driven process could influence the number of harpacticoid species within the tested time scale. We hypothesize that rather other habitat characteristics connected with age, i.e. habitat heterogeneity and stability, may be determinant for species richness. The occurrence of some species (e.g. P. pilosus, B. cuspidatus) was clearly geographically limited, but due to the spatial structuring of significant environmental variables no conclusion on dispersal limitations could be made.     

Shifts in vegetation growth in response to multiple factors on the Mongolian Plateau from 1982 to 2011

The Mongolian Plateau (MP) steppe is one of the largest steppe environments in the world. To monitor the terrestrial vegetation dynamics on the MP and to ascertain what the driving forces, this study examined the vegetation dynamics in Republic of Mongolia (M) and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IM) of China from the period 1982 to 2011, based on the satellite-derived GIMMS NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data across three biomes (desert, grassland and forest). The results are as followed: (1) Vegetation coverage in IM was generally greater than that in M. Before 2002, time series of NDVI over the MP increased at an average rate of 0.05% yr⁻¹. Additionally, after 2002, the NDVI increased at a rate of 0.21% yr⁻¹. From 1982 to 2011, the area of IM and M with positive anomalies in the NDVI increased at a separate rate of 1.82% yr⁻¹ and 1.76% yr⁻¹, respectively. (2) At the biome scale, the inter-annual forest NDVI variation in IM and desert NDVI for the entire MP had a significant increasing trend (0.06% yr⁻¹ and 0.04% yr⁻¹, respectively). (3) Climate forcing was a dominant controlling factor affecting the vegetation, and the anthropogenic behavior exhibited no significant value in the whole region. However, overgrazing was the most important reason for the regional degradation, particularly in IM. (4) In the future, the forest biome will go to recovery, whereas both the grassland and desert biomes are predicted to degrade continuously.     

近地空间环境的GNSS无线电掩星探测技术

从GPS/MET计划开始,基于GNSS的无线电掩星技术已成为一种强大的近地空间环境探测手段.截至到目前,已经有20多颗发射的低轨道卫星带GPS掩星接收机,其中COSMIC是首个专门用于掩星探测的卫星星座.这些掩星数据被广泛应用于气象预报、气候与全球变化研究、及空间天气监测和电离层研究.由于COSMIC的成功,相关合作单位目前正积极推动COSMIC-2计划,该计划将总共有12颗卫星,于2016年与2019 年各发射6颗.COSMIC-2将携带一个高级的GNSS掩星接收机,它将接受GPS与GLONASS信号,并具备接受其他可获得信号源的能力(如中国北斗定位信号),其每日观测的掩星数量将是COSMIC的4~6倍.同时COSMIC-2还将携带两个空间天气载荷,加强空间天气的监测能力.本文以COSMIC与COSMIC-2计划为主线,对掩星的发展历史、技术要点进行了简单介绍,并简要综述了COSMIC取得的部分科学成果,同时对未来包括技术发展和众多的掩星观测进行了展望.     

环太平洋俯冲带内双地震带及其成因机制研究进展

俯冲带作为地球最为庞大的循环系统的重要组成部分,已成为地球科学的研究热点之一.很多俯冲带,特别是环太平洋俯冲带内的中深源地震,在空间上呈明显的分层分布,并且各层地震具有不同的震源机制,即所谓的双地震带现象.本文简要介绍了环太平洋双地震带形态特征与震源机制的空间分布,并回顾了双地震带的几种成因模型.根据形态特征和震源机制的差异,中源深度的双地震带可以分为两类,其中,一类双地震带对应上、下二层分别为压缩和张性的地震分布;另一类双地震带的震源分布较浅,且其浅部地震以横向压缩为主.此外,日本本州东北俯冲带的地震分布可能是由三层地震带组成的,而且汤加、伊豆-小笠原地区还发现深源深度的双地震带.通过对双地震带的形态特征以及其热力学条件的研究,人们从抗弯作用、脱水脆化、相变断层等多方面,尝试建立解释双地震带成因的模型.目前,大多数研究利用数值计算结果,结合蛇纹石脱水脆化、相变断层模型,能够不同程度地分别解释中源和深源双地震带成因.不过,这些模型几乎相互独立,并不能同时解释中源和深源双地震带.有人试图尝试用统一模型解释中深源地震成因,例如,先前存在的断层模型,不过该模型还不很具有说服力.也可能是多种因素的联合作用,共同影响着俯冲板内的温度场、应力场分布.     

亮温与降水量的关系

卫星红外遥感亮温数据值除与地球的自转和公转存在密切关系外,还与大气环境和地理环境有密切关系。应用青海省黄河门堂观测点的降水量和水位,以及对应点地表亮温资料进行对比分析,其结果为：降水量与亮温存在可比性,在峰值时间区段内,亮温与降水量呈现明显的反向变化关系;降水量的波动变化导致地表温度的波动变化;水位、降水量和亮温属于温度对气候变化较为敏感的物理量。     

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social–ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass.     

Influence of forest fires on climate change studies in the central boreal forest of Canada

This brief paper indicates that forest fires may have short and longer term effects on runoff and thus, can influence trend studies on the response of watersheds to climate change. Twenty-two watersheds at the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario were studied to view the impacts of climatic variability and forest fires on runoff. A roughly 30 year database demonstrated few trends in climatological variables and even fewer trends in runoff data at the 5% significance level. Daily maximum temperature increased by 0.053 °C per year, while precipitation in the months of February and March showed significant decreases. Total snow showed a significant decrease over a 30 year period at the 8% significance level. The Mann Kendall test for trend was applied to the runoff indices of 19 watersheds and it was revealed that only six exhibited trends. Of these, five had been burned during the test period. Virtually all burned watersheds showed initial increases in runoff, however, long term runoff trended lower in the burned watersheds, while the one watershed that was not burned showed an increasing trend. Forest fires alter the age distribution of trees with subsequent impacts on water yields in the short and longer term.