Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration have been analyzed in 70 and 140a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2 concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70a, at the time of CO2 doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.     

The Mid-atlantic Ridge (31°S–34°30′S): Temporal and spatial variations of accretionary processes

The ridge located between 31° S and 34°30′S is spreading at a rate of 35 mm yr⁻¹, a transitional velocity between the very slow (≤20 mm yr⁻¹) opening rates of the North Atlantic and Southwest Indian Oceans, and the intermediate rates (60 mm yr⁻¹) of the northern limb of the East Pacific Rise, and the Galapagos and Juan de Fuca Ridges. A synthesis of multi-narrow beam, magnetics and gravity data document that in this area the ridge represents a dynamically evolving system. Here the ridge is partitioned into an ensemble of six distinct segments of variable lengths (12 to 100 km) by two transform faults (first-order discontinuities) and three small offset (< 30 km) discontinuities (second-order discontinuities) that behave non-rigidly creating complex and heterogeneous morphotectonic patterns that are not parallel to flow lines. The offset magnitudes of both the first and second-order discontinuities change in response to differential asymmetric spreading. In addition, along the fossil trace of second-order discontinuities, the lengths of abyssal hills located to either side of a discordant zone are observed to lengthen and shorten creating a saw-toothed pattern. Although the spreading rate remains the same along the length of the ridge studied, the morphology of the spreading segments varies from a deep median valley with characteristics analogous to the rift segments of the North Atlantic to a gently rifted axial bulge that is indistinguishable from the shape and relief of the intermediate rate spreading centers of the East Pacific Rise (i.e., 21°N). Like other carefully surveyed ridge segments at slow and fast rates of accretion, the along-axis profiles of each ridge segment are distinctly convex upwards, and exhibit along-strike changes in relief of 500m to 1500 between the shallowest portion of the segment (approximate center) and the segment ends. Such spatial variations create marked along-axis changes in the morphology and relief of each segment. A relatively low mantle Bouguer anomaly is known to be associated with the ridge segment characterized by a gently rifted axial bulge and is interpreted to indicate the presence of focused mantle upwelling (Kuo and Forsyth, 1988). Moreover, the terrain at the ends of each segment are known to be highly magnetized compared to the centers of each segment (Carbotte et al, 1990). Taken together, these data clearly establish that these profound spatial variations in ridge segment properties between adjoining segments, and along and across each segment, indicate that the upper mantle processes responsible for the formation of this contrasting architecture are not solely related to passive upwelling of the asthenosphere beneath the ridge axis. Rather, there must be differences in the thermal and mechanical structure of the crust and upper mantle between and along the ridge segments to explain these spatial variations in axial topography, crustal structure and magnetization. These results are consistent with the results of investigations from other parts of the ridge and suggest that the emplacement of magma is highly focused along segments and positioned beneath the depth minimum of a given segment. The profound differences between segments indicate that the processes governing the behavior of upwelling mantle are decoupled and the variations in the patterns of axis flanking morphology and rate of accretion indicate that processes controlling upwelling and melt production vary markedly in time as well. At this spreading rate and in this area, the accretionary processes are clearly three-dimensional. In addition, the morphology of a ridge segment is not governed so much by opening rate as by the thermal structure of the mantle which underlies the segment.     

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.     

Socio-economic vulnerability due to climate change: Deriving indicators for fishing communities in Mumbai

This paper assessed the socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of fishing communities known as “Koli” living in Mumbai, India. The vulnerability indicators are derived from sustainable livelihood literature and use of multi-criteria analyses and are validated with expert opinions. A survey of two hundred fishermen from five fishing villages in Mumbai was conducted to collect data. The results demonstrate that vulnerability perpetuates due to physical and financial resource constraints among the fishing community. Fishermen from Madh and Worli villages are observed to be more vulnerable and less adaptive due to their inability to use efficient mechanized boats and advanced fishing implements, such as fish finders and GPS (Global Positioning System). The divergence in the vulnerability scores among fishing villages is attributed to the coping strategies, resource availability, knowledge and the benefit derived from the local government. Fishermen have been observing the negative impacts of climate change on their fishing livelihoods. Adaptation strategies to maximize fish catch are observed in such practices as targeting different species and fishing intensively for several days. However, these practices are leading to an imbalance in the common resource pool and biased resource sharing among different groups of fishermen.     

渤东凹陷东南斜坡构造变换带识别及其石油地质意义

根据渤东凹陷斜坡带新钻井以及新采集的三维地震等勘探资料,采用构造样式解剖、断裂分析以及油气成藏规律分析等方法研究构造变换带特征及其石油地质意义。结果表明,渤东凹陷东南斜坡带上存在构造变换带,此变换带具有调节局部构造变形和分割构造带的作用,把斜坡带分割为西、中、东3个整体呈NE向的似花状构造带。变换带对于明下段极浅水三角洲沉积体展布具有一定控制作用,是砂体形成岩性尖灭的有利场所,同时,近SN向变换断层对NEE向断裂的封堵易形成构造圈闭、构造—岩性圈闭,具有较大的勘探潜力。3个似花状构造带的南部3条断层的断面与地层呈顺向配置,形成断面汇聚脊到顺向地层的优势运移路径,同时受到南部呈雁行排列的密集断裂带的阻挡,形成了研究区一条似花状构造内部的优势运聚范围,最终在渤东凹陷东南斜坡带上形成密集断裂带横向遮挡的主控断层—地层产状耦合油气富集模式。     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective

The Bering Sea is a high-latitude, semi-enclosed sea that supports extensive fish, seabird, marine mammal, and invertebrate populations and some of the world's most productive fisheries. The region consists of several distinct biomes that have undergone wide-scale population variation, in part due to fisheries, but also in part due to the effects of interannual and decadal-scale climatic variation. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. Here, we examine the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation. Both climate variability and fisheries have substantially altered the Bering Sea ecosystem in the past, but their relative importance in shaping the current ecosystem state remains uncertain.     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

Fishers' perceptions,facilitating factors and challenges of community-based no-take zones in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve,Quintana Roo,Mexico

In response to fisheries decline in the Mexican Caribbean and continuing deterioration of the Mesoamerican Reef, conservation NGOs have begun to negotiate and collaboratively design a network of no-take zones (NTZs) with three fishing cooperatives in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (SKBR), among other places along the coast of Quintana Roo. Spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) is the target of the main fishery within cooperative concessions. Fishers are uniquely positioned to enforce and monitor NTZs and evaluate their effectiveness. This study analyzes fishers' perceptions as indicators of social acceptance of NTZs, and identifies facilitating factors and challenges of the community-based process. Consistent with similar studies, responses of fishers (89 out of a population of 124) to a semi-structured interview showed that perceptions of NTZs largely reflect fishers' concerns and interests. A high proportion of fishers accurately identified main NTZ objectives of regulation, conservation and economic improvement, as well as NTZ locations. Further, fishers cared about ecosystem sustainability and, because NTZs would not significantly limit their main economic activity, endorsed the initiative while expecting additional benefits. Declining trends in lobster catch influenced a perceived need for NTZs. Major concerns were that illegal fishers would reap NTZ benefits and that economic impacts and benefits were uncertain. Most fishers found the decision-making process inclusive, were willing to take responsibility for enforcing NTZs and believed people leading the process were trustworthy. Differences in endorsement of NTZs among cooperatives points to the importance of understanding fishers’ incentives to collaborate, and the leadership and organizational dynamics which shape participatory processes. This analysis highlights challenges in advancing NTZs in complex ecological, socio-economic and regulatory contexts. It underscores the need for community-based processes that transcend understanding of conservation measures but also invests in sustainable, operative and trustful working relationships, as well as the urgency of interdisciplinary approaches in ensuring effective design and implementation of this relatively new fishery management tool.     

Adoption of the arctic search and rescue agreement: A shift of the arctic regime toward a hard law basis?

This paper examines the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement—the first legally-binding instrument negotiated and adopted under the auspices of the Arctic Council—and analyzes its implications for the current Arctic regime. Led by the Arctic Council, the Arctic regime was established in a soft law format. However, the soft law nature and restricted mandates of the Arctic Council have limited its capacity to respond to new issues emerging from climate change, particularly those related to the exploitation of oil and gas reserves, commercial shipping through the region, effects on wildlife, and impacts on indigenous peoples' homelands and culture. The adoption of the Agreement represents a new approach for the Arctic States to respond to these new challenges. At the same time, it does not imply that a legally-binding instrument is necessarily preferable for every issue, and importantly, the new Arctic Agreement does not establish new institutional relationships, suggesting satisfaction among the Arctic States with the existing arrangements. Thus, although the Arctic regime is undoubtedly changing, this change should not be treated today as a shift from soft to hard law. What is more certain is that the Arctic Council will continue to function as a cooperative forum where the Arctic States can address these challenges, and its importance will only increase in coming years.