桃花迟早年型的冬季气候特点及花期预测

对广西桂林市桃花迟早年型冬季气候特点的分析表明,桃花偏早年型具有冬季降雨量偏多,12月中下旬气温偏低,1月下旬至2月下旬气温偏高等主要特征.用模糊数学方法对桃花迟早年型进行预测,可为花卉开花期应用和旅游业提供气象服务.     

Impact of climate change on dynamic behavior of offshore wind turbine

Global warming is expected to change the wind and wave patterns at a significant level, which may lead to conditions outside current design criteria of monopile supported offshore wind turbine (OWT). This study examines the impact of climate change on the dynamic behavior and future safety of an OWT founded in clay incorporating dynamic soil–structure interaction. A statistical downscaling model is used to generate the time series of future wind speed and wave height at local level. The responses and fatigue life of OWT are estimated for present and future periods and extent of change in design is investigated at offshore location along the west coast of India. Wind speed, wave height, and wave period data are collected from the buoy deployed by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services and the future climate for the next 30 years is simulated using the general circulation model corresponding to Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B scenario. The OWT is modeled as Euler–Bernoulli beam and soil–structure interaction is incorporated using nonlinear p-y springs. This study shows that changes in design of OWT are needed due to increased responses owing to the effect of climate change. Fatigue life is found to be decreased because of climate change.     

青藏高原地区过去2000年来的气候变化

依据冰芯、树轮、沉积物分析和冰川波动等各单点古气候代用资料,以及重建的综合温度变化曲线,分析了近 2000年青藏高原温度变化的整体性和区域性特征。全青藏高原综合温度曲线显示中世纪暖期（1150-1400年）、小冰期（1400-1900年）以及公元 3～5世纪冷期的存在。青藏高原温度变化具有明显的区域性特征。在 9～11世纪,青藏高原东北部以温暖为特征,而青藏高原南部和西部表现为寒冷。青藏高原南部和西部分别于1150-1400年（此时段在高原东北部表现为弱暖期）和1250-1500年经历了气候变暖。与中国东部文献记录的最新综合研究结果比较,高原东北部与中国东部的温度变化最为一致。而且,许多重大气候事件,如1100-1150年、1500-1550年、1650-1700年和1800-1850年的冷事件在高原和中国东部同时出现,而后 3次冷期与小冰期期间中国西部发生的冰川前进相匹配。     

全球气候变化问题的对策

根据２０多年的国内、外有关文献,综合分析了全球气候变化问题的国际对策以及发达国家之间、发展中国家之间、发达国家与发展中国家之间的矛盾与斗争。结合中国国情,提出了我国应付全球气候变化问题的相应对策建议。     

Fire and vegetation history during the last 3800 years in northwestern Montana

Foy Lake in northwestern Montana provides a record of annual-to-decadal-scale landscape change. Sedimentary charcoal and pollen analyses were used to document fire and vegetation changes over the last 3800 years, which were then compared to similar records from AD 1880 to 2000. The long-term record at Foy Lake suggests shifts between forest and steppe as well as changes in fire regime that are likely the result of climate change. Fire activity (inferred from the frequency of charcoal peaks) averaged 18 fire episodes/1000 years from 3800 to 2125 cal year BP, and increased from 16 fire episodes/1000 years at 2125 cal year BP to 22 episodes/1000 years at 750 cal year BP, a period when the pollen data suggest that steppe vegetation yielded to increasing patches of forest cover. Between 2125 and 750 cal year BP, increased forest cover produced more background charcoal than before and after this period, when vegetation was dominated by steppe. Between 750 and 75 cal year BP steppe has expanded and fire episode frequency averaged 33 episodes/1000 years, increasing to a maximum of 40 episodes/1000 years at ca. 300 cal year BP and then decreasing to present levels. Since AD 1880, the pollen record indicates an increase in shrubs and grasses from AD 1895 to 1960 as a result of vegetation changes associated with timber harvesting and livestock grazing. No fires have been documented in the Foy Lake watershed since AD 1880. Charcoal from the extralocal fires of AD 1910, burning over 4,111,249 ha in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, however, is present in Foy Lake. Between AD 1970 and 2000, increased arboreal pollen in the record is consistent with observations that the forest has become more closed. The activities of Euro–Americans have led to a decline in forest cover between AD 1880 and 1970, followed by a recent increase as trees are now growing in areas previously occupied by steppe. Euro–Americans are likely the cause of a reduction in fire activity in watershed since AD 1880.     

The role of climate and vegetation in weathering and clay mineral formation in late Quaternary soils of the Swiss and Italian Alps

Interactions between climate and soil remain ambiguous, particularly when silicate weathering and clay mineral formation and transformation rates are considered in relation to global climate changes. Recent studies suggest that climate affects weathering rates much less than previously thought. Here we show that the climate in the central European Alps has a significant, but indirect, influence on the weathering of soils through vegetation. The pattern of element leaching and mineral transformations is not only due to precipitation and temperature. Element leaching was greatest in subalpine forests near the timberline; weathering is lessened at higher and lower altitudes. Vegetation, therefore, contributes significantly to weathering processes. The highest accumulation of organic matter was found in climatically cooler sites (subalpine range) where the production of organic ligands, which enhance weathering, is greatest. Patterns of smectite formation and distribution had strong similarities to that of the elemental losses of Fe and Al (R = 0.69; P < 0.01) or base cations (R = 0.58; P < 0.05). Higher precipitation rates and the production of organic chelating compounds in the soil promoted the appearance of smectites. The relationship between climate, element leaching (Fe, Al, Ca, Mg, K, Na), and smectite formation is strongly nonlinear and driven by the podzolisation process, which is more pronounced near the timberline because of the bioclimatic constellation. Climate warming will probably, in the future, lead to a decrease in SOM stocks in the subalpine to alpine range because of more favourable conditions for biodegradation that would also affect weathering processes.     

Climate variability of southern Chile since the Last Glacial Maximum: a continuous sedimentological record from Lago Puyehue (40°S)

This paper presents a multi-proxy climate record of an 11 m long core collected in Lago Puyehue (southern Chile, 40°S) and extending back to 18,000 cal yr BP. The multi-proxy analyses include sedimentology, mineralogy, grain size, geochemistry, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and radiocarbon dating. Results demonstrate that sediment grain size is positively correlated with the biogenic sediment content and can be used as a proxy for lake paleoproductivity. On the other hand, the magnetic susceptibility signal is correlated with the aluminium and titanium concentrations and can be used as a proxy for the terrigenous supply. Temporal variations of sediment composition evidence that, since the Last Glacial Maximum, the Chilean Lake District was characterized by three abrupt climate changes superimposed on a long-term climate evolution. These rapid climate changes are: (1) an abrupt warming at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum at 17,300 cal yr BP; (2) a 13,100–12,300 cal yr BP cold event, ending rapidly and interpreted as the local counterpart of the Younger Dryas cold period, and (3) a 3,400–2,900 cal yr BP climatic instability synchronous with a period of low solar activity. The timing of the 13,100–12,300 cold event is compared with similar records in both hemispheres and demonstrates that this southern hemisphere climate change precedes the northern hemisphere Younger Dryas cold period by 500 to 1,000 years. This is the third in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

Distribution patterns of soil lichens across the principal biomes of southern Africa

The present study was undertaken to assess baseline distribution patterns for soil lichens occurring in the principal biomes of southern Africa, and to analyse their relationship to selected environmental parameters. Among the lichen species found across our survey sites, four distinct groups could be delineated, each as distinct consortium of lichen species sharing particular morphological characters (e.g. growth-form, pigmentation and type of photobiont kind). These groups are largely correlated with specific environmental parameters. These findings suggest that lichens may serve as valuable bioindicators for evaluating climate and soil change in this region of Africa.     

长江三角洲地区地表温度年内变化规律与气候因子的关系分析

以长江三角洲地区为研究区,利用2005年全年的MODIS地表温度产品和气象观测资料,定量分析了地表温度年内变化规律与气候因子之间的时滞响应关系。首先,通过谐波分析方法(Harmonic Analysis of Time Series,HANTS)消除地表温度数据中云的影响,提取地表温度时间序列谐波(即周期变化规律),重建地表温度无云时间序列;然后,利用DEM和纬度数据计算了研究区太阳辐射的空间分布,并将其与地表温度的年内变化进行时滞相关分析。0.991 6的相关系数表明:太阳辐射是地表温度年周期变化的主要控制因素,地表温度峰值出现的时间相对于太阳辐射时间而言滞后20 d左右;时滞相关分析表明,地表温度和气温之间的年内变化规律呈极显著相关,气温的变化相对于地表温度存在约5 d左右的滞后响应。     

近20年气候变暖对东北农业生产水热条件影响的研究

针对东北气候变化影响研究中对增温正效应关注较多, 而对水热匹配等综合影响研究不够的情况, 利用东北地区1961~2000年56个气象站的气象资料, 对近20年东北气候变暖的特点, 温度升高的同时大气干湿程度及水热匹配状况的变化等相关现象进行了较详细的分析。提出东北气候变暖主要表现于冬季, 20世纪90年代变暖明显, 南部大于北部; 夏季增温幅度有限, 不很稳定, 仍时有温度偏低发生, 并同时出现高温日数增多等极端异常气候事件; 最低温度升高幅度大于最高温度的升高幅度, 导致温度日较差变小, 冬季更加明显; 大气水分盈亏状况和水热状况在10年时间尺度上没有明显的变化, 但20世纪90年代中后期出现暖干化趋势, 并由春季转至夏季, 西部和南部比较明显, 对农作物不利等结论。为克服盲目性, 客观评估东北气候变化及其影响, 正确进行农业布局和种植结构调整提供一定的科学依据。