高等级海况条件下移动式海上基地动力响应分析

针对半潜式超大型浮式结构中典型的移动式海上基地(Mobile Offshore Base,MOB)在高等级海况下的动力响应问题展开研究。在MOB结构"刚性模块-柔性连接构件(Rigid Modules and Flexible Connectors,RMFC)"模型的前提下,根据动力学基本原理,经理论推导并计算得到MOB分别在6、7、8级海况的随机波激励下,其上各模块的动力响应位移结果。详细分析了MOB结构同一模块在不同海况条件下的动力响应位移随浪向角及连接构件刚度的变化规律。研究成果可为半潜式超大型浮式结构动力响应研究及结构优化设计提供一定的技术支撑。     

Effects of linear and exponential heterogeneity on the dynamic response of a moving load in an irregular isotropic half-space: a comparative study

Heterogeneity, being a trivial feature inside the earth or in a geostructure, makes a strong basis for its consideration in the study of geomechanics. Inclusion of the concept of heterogeneity along with irregularity in the medium brings a novelty to the existing literature related to the study of the moving load. The present study investigates the effects of linear and exponential heterogeneity on the dynamic response due to a normal load moving with constant velocity on a rough irregular heterogeneous isotropic half-space in a comparative approach. Expressions for both normal and shear stresses for either case of heterogeneity have been established in closed form. Substantial effects of the affecting parameters such as depth, irregularity factor, maximum depth of irregularity, frictional coefficient, linear heterogeneity parameter and exponential heterogeneity parameter on normal and shear stresses for both the cases of heterogeneity have been observed. Numerical computation has been carried out and the effects of said parameters have been meticulously examined by means of graphs. Moreover, different cases of heterogeneity and homogeneity along with various types of irregularity namely rectangular, parabolic and no irregularity are compared which serve as a focal theme of the study.     

An Analytical Solution for Dynamic Response of the Plate with Different Impedances Subjected to Underwater Explosion

In this paper, the transmitted part of the incident wave is considered to revise Taylor’s solution, which is used to extend its application for analytical models to predict the response of the plate with different material properties. The influence of the material properties and the boundary condition of the plate on fluid and structural dynamics is systematically investigated. The analytical results are compared with those of detailed dynamic FE simulations and the two are in good agreement. The results indicate that the analytical method is valid and suitable for the plates with different material properties subjected to underwater explosion. It is found that Taylor’s results of the plate with small impedance are invalid, which indicates a potential application field for the analytical method.     

Coupled Dynamic Response Analysis of A Multi-Column Tension-Leg-Type Floating Wind Turbine

This paper presents a coupled dynamic response analysis of a multi-column tension-leg-type floating wind turbine (WindStar TLP system) under normal operation and parked conditions. Wind-only load cases, wave-only load cases and combined wind and wave load cases were analyzed separately for the WindStar TLP system to identify the dominant excitation loads. Comparisons between an NREL offshore 5-MW baseline wind turbine installed on land and the WindStar TLP system were performed. Statistics of selected response variables in specified design load cases (DLCs) were obtained and analyzed. It is found that the proposed WindStar TLP system has small dynamic responses to environmental loads and it thus has almost the same mean generator power output under operating conditions as the land-based system. The tension mooring system has a sufficient safety factor, and the minimum tendon tension is always positive in all selected DLCs. The ratio of ultimate load of the tower base fore-aft bending moment for the WindStar TLP system versus the land-based system can be as high as 1.9 in all of the DLCs considered. These results will help elucidate the dynamic characteristics of the proposed WindStar TLP system, identify the difference in load effect between it and land-based systems, and thus make relevant modifications to the initial design for the WindStar TLP system.     

Ozone and climate governance: An implausible path dependence

Many observers and commentators have used the case of ozone science and politics as a role model for climate science and politics. Two crucial assumptions underpin this view: (1) that science drives policymaking, and (2) that a unified, international science assessment is essential to provide “one voice” of science that speaks to policymakers. I will argue that these assumptions are theoretically problematic and empirically questionable. We should realize that both cases, ozone and climate, are profoundly different and only have superficial similarities. Ozone science developed late, but efforts to protect the ozone layer happened swiftly. The relation between carbon dioxide and climate change has been studied for many decades, but efforts to control global warming have failed so far. I will discuss the linear model of the science-policy relationship and use the typology of tame and wicked problems to explain this stark difference.     

Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.     

The global search and commercialization of alternatives and substitutes for ozone-depleting substances

The Montreal Protocol has halted 99% of global production of chemical substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, which protects life on earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation. UVB causes skin cancer and cataracts, suppresses the human immune system, destroys plastics, and damages agricultural crops and natural ecosystems. Because ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are powerful greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol also protects climate. From the authors’ perspectives in multiple roles as environmental entrepreneurs, practitioners, and authorities, this paper explains how individuals, companies, and military organizations researched, developed, commercialized and implemented alternatives to ODSs that are also safer for climate. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors reflect on what was neglected or done badly under the Montreal Protocol and present lessons learned on how Montreal Protocol institutions can be renewed and revitalized to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).     

The Neogene and Quaternary of England: landscape evolution,tectonics, climate change and their expression in the geological record

During the Neogene and Quaternary, tectonic and climatic processes have had a profound impact upon landscape evolution in England and, perhaps as far back as 0.9 Ma, patterns of early human occupation. Until the Late Miocene, large-scale plate tectonic processes were the principal drivers of landscape evolution causing localised basin inversion and widespread exhumation. This drove, in places, the erosion of several kilometres of Mesozoic cover rocks and the development of a regional unconformity across England and the North Sea Basin. By the Pliocene, the relative influence of tectonics on landscape evolution waned as the background tectonic stress regime evolved and climatic influences became more prominent. Global-scale climate-forcing increased step-wise during the Plio-Pleistocene amplifying erosional and depositional processes that operated within the landscape. These processes caused differential unloading (uplift) and loading (subsidence) of the crust (‘denudational isostasy’) in areas undergoing net erosion (upland areas and slopes) and deposition (basins). Denudational isostasy amplified during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (c.0.9 Ma) as landscapes become progressively synchronised to large-scale 100 ka ‘eccentricity’ climate forcing. Over the past 0.5 Ma, this has led to the establishment of a robust climate record of individual glacial/interglacial cycles enabling comparison to other regional and global records. During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition and early Holocene (c.16–7 ka), evidence for more abrupt (millennial/centennial) scale climatic events has been discovered. This indicates that superimposed upon the longer-term pattern of landscape evolution is a more dynamic response of the landscape to local and regional drivers.     

黄河口清水沟河道的冲淤过程与模拟

为揭示黄河口清水沟河道长时段的冲淤演变规律并建立其冲淤计算方法,分析了清水沟1976—2015年的时空冲淤演变过程,采用河床演变的滞后响应模型,考虑河口来水来沙及河道延伸与蚀退的影响,建立了清水沟累计冲淤量的计算方法。结果表明:1976—1980年改道初期清水沟改道点上游先冲后淤,改道点下游淤滩塑槽,淤积量随着下游河道展宽而增加,1980年后改道点上、下游河道冲淤过程趋于一致;受水沙条件等因素影响,1980—1986年清水沟主槽冲刷展宽,之后主槽淤积萎缩;1996年清八改汊和2002年小浪底水库"调水调沙"原型试验以来,河道转淤为冲,2002年后河道冲刷速率随时间指数衰减;河床演变的滞后响应模型可计算清水沟长时段的冲淤过程,该方法可为预测未来清水沟冲淤演变趋势提供科学参考。     

概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。