新余市1959-2005年降水多时间尺度特征

应用一维Morlet小波变换分析方法对新余市降水的多时间尺度进行分析,发现新余市降水除在整个时域中有明显的3—5a的周期变化外,其他尺度周期信号的强弱在时-频域中的分布具有很强的局部特征。但无论是较大时间尺度,还是较小时间尺度,新余市年降水、汛期降水均处于偏少期,且近期偏少趋势仍较明显;伏秋季降水则处于偏少末期,有向偏多转化的趋势。     

Transient analysis of wave propagation in non‐homogeneous elastic unbounded domains by using the scaled boundary finite‐element method

The scaled boundary finite‐element method has been developed for the dynamic analysis of unbounded domains. In this method only the boundary is discretized resulting in a reduction of the spatial dimension by one. Like the finite‐element method no fundamental solution is required. This paper extends the scaled boundary finite‐element method to simulate the transient response of non‐homogeneous unbounded domains with the elasticity modulus and mass density varying as power functions of spatial coordinates. To reduce the number of degrees of freedom and the computational cost, the technique of reduced set of base functions is applied. The scaled boundary finite‐element equation for an unbounded domain is reformulated in generalized coordinates. The resulting acceleration unit‐impulse response matrix is obtained and assembled with the equation of motion of standard finite elements. Numerical examples of non‐homogeneous isotropic and transversely isotropic unbounded domains demonstrate the accuracy of the scaled boundary finite‐element method. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

热带气旋对广州经济建设的影响及其减灾对策

着重分析热带气旋的活动规律,热带气旋灾害的气候特点以及对经济建设的影响.提出热带气旋的减灾对策:气象部门应建立热带气旋防灾减灾系统,加强卫星遥感技术在热带气旋灾害监测中的应用,积极开展气象工程服务;政府和社会应做好防御工程建设,制定和完善防御台风、暴雨等灾害的具体措施,积极发展保险事业,加强城郊防御热带气旋和宣传等防灾减灾工作.     

Dynamics and circulation regimes of terrestrial planets

By the study of simple analogues, either in the form of simplified numerical models or laboratory experiments, considerable insights may be gained as to the likely roles of planetary size, rotation, thermal stratification and other factors in determining the principal length scales, styles of global circulation and dominant waves and instability processes active in the respective climate systems of Earth, Mars, Venus and Titan. In this review, we explore aspects of these analogues and demonstrate the importance of a number of key dimensionless parameters, most notably thermal Rossby and Rhines numbers and a measure of the dominant frictional or radiative timescale, in defining the type of circulation regime to be expected in a prototype planetary atmosphere subject to axisymmetric driving. These considerations help to place Mars, Venus, Titan and Earth into an appropriate context, and may also lay the foundations for predicting and understanding the climate and circulation regimes of (as yet undiscovered) Earth-like extra-solar planets. However, as recent discoveries of ‘super-Earth’ planets around some nearby stars are beginning to reveal, the parameter space determined from axisymmetrically forced prototype atmospheres may be incomplete and other factors, such as the possibility of tidally locked rotation and tidal forcing, may also need to be taken into account for some classes of extra-solar planet.     

An answer to an important controversy and the need for caution when using simple models to predict inelastic earthquake response of buildings with torsion

This paper presents evidence that the extension of conclusions based on the widely used simplified, one story, eccentric systems of the shear‐beam type, to actual, nonsymmetric buildings and consequent assessments of the pertinent code provisions, can be quite erroneous, unless special care is taken to match the basic properties of the simplified models to those of the real buildings. The evidence comes from comparisons of results obtained using three variants of simplified models, with results from the inelastic dynamic response of three‐ and five‐story eccentric buildings computed with detailed MDOF systems, where the members are idealized with the well‐known plastic hinge model. In addition, a convincing answer is provided on a pertinent hanging controversy: For frame‐type buildings, designed in accordance with the dynamic provisions of modern codes (such as EC8 or IBC2000), which allow reduced shears at the stiff edge due to torsion, the frames at the flexible sides are the critical elements in terms of ductility demands. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型索承网壳结构非线性地震反应特性和参数分析

本文根据新型大跨空间杂交结构———索承网壳结构的受力特点,选用梁元、杆元和索元的混合有限元模型,给出了一种有效的适用于该类结构的非线性动力响应的增量、迭代有限元计算方法。以K8型索承网壳结构为研究对象,进行了时域内的三向地震作用下的非线性反应分析。计算结果表明,该结构具有良好的抗震性能。文中针对地震响应的主要影响参数,对其地震响应规律作了系统的研究,得出矢跨比和撑杆长度是抗震设计的主要控制参数等有应用价值的结论。     

FGOALS_gg1.1极地气候模拟

对中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_g1.1的极地气候模拟现状进行了较为全面的评估.结果表明,FGOALS_g1.1对南北极海冰的主要分布特征、季节变化和年代际变化趋势具有一定的模拟能力.但也注意到,与观测相比,模式存在以下几方面的问题:(1)模拟的海冰总面积北极偏多,而南极偏少.北极,北大西洋海冰全年明显偏多;夏季,西伯利亚沿海海冰偏多,而波弗特海海冰偏少.南极,威德尔海和罗斯海冬季海冰偏少.南北极海冰边缘都存在异常的较大范围密集度很小的碎冰区,夏季尤为显著.(2)海冰流速在南北极海冰边缘和南极大陆沿岸附近较大.北极,模式没能模拟出波弗特涡流,并且由于模式网格中北极点的处理问题,造成其附近错误的海冰流场及厚度分布.这些海冰偏差与模式模拟的大气和海洋状况有着密切的联系.进一步分析表明,FGOALS_g1.1模拟的冰岛低压和南极绕极西风带明显偏弱,其通过大气环流和海表面风应力影响向极地的热量输送,在很大程度上导致上述的海冰偏差.此外,耦合模式中大气-海冰-海洋的相互作用可以放大子模式中的偏差.     

西辽河流域归一化植被指数与气象因子相关性分析

为了解西辽河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)的分布规律、变化趋势及对气候变化的响应,利用2000—2018年西辽河流域11个气象站逐日气象资料和MODIS归一化植被指数数据集,通过线性回归和相关分析,探讨了生长季各月NDVI与气象因子的时滞性,以及气象站周围10 km缓冲区内不同植被类型NDVI与气象因子的相关性.结果表...     

长江三峡地区全新世环境演变及其古文化响应

依据长江三峡地区大九湖和玉溪剖面AMS14C测年数据(校正为日历年)建立了约9.3～2ka BP高分辨率多环境代用指标(δ13C、K、腐殖化度、抱粉总浓度、Rb、Sr及Rb/Sr)的变化曲线,并在此基础上与研究区周边反映全新世气候环境变化的不同沉积记录进行综合对比分析.与此同时,本文还通过对研究区古遗址和古洪水层的统计分析,获取了本区新石器以来古文化兴衰变迁和古洪水发生的完整信息.研究结果表明:(1)本区全新世大暖期约出现在7.6～4 ka BP.9.3～7.6 ka BP,本区气候极不稳定,波动幅度大,总体上冷湿,多次出现显著的降温或干旱事件(9.1、8.2和7.7 ka BP前后);4～2 ka BP,本区气候较此前偏干凉,且波动频繁.(2)7.6～ka BP的大暖期分为三个演变阶段:即6～5 ka BP为大暖期的鼎盛期,气候稳定,温暖湿润,植被及生态条件优越,洪水发生频率低;7.6～6 ka BP和5～4 ka BP为大暖期中具有不稳定特征的过渡期,其中5～4 ka BP及4 ka BP前后的降温事件仍较显著,且多发洪水.(3)本区史前古文化的主要形成发展期与大暖期持续阶段相对应,其中耕作业相对发达的大溪文化繁荣期出现在大暖期中的鼎盛阶段(约6～5 ka BP),大溪文化前后处于低潮及表现为衰退现象的古文化则对应气候环境的不稳定期,总体上,研究区古文化响应气候环境变化的主要方式是通过改变其生业结构的途径来实现的.     

基于GIS系统的城市震灾评估和救灾应急的研究

地震防灾减灾能力是国家的重点需求,针对当前城市抗震应急存在的灵活性差问题,在过去研究的基础上,将GIS系统应用至城市抗震救灾应急响应中,建立的GIS系统利用地震灾害评估模块、数据库管理模块、地震应急响应和指挥决策模块构成城市抗震救灾应急响应框架,完成城市GIS系统的应用分析。地震灾害评估模块中计算震害总体损失、经济损失和生命损失,实现地震灾害评估信息数据的精确性采集;数据库管理模块中的抗灾救灾应急响应数据库主要利用矢量数据、数字正射影像数据和其他专题数据构成,完成一致性访问各种类型数据,提高城市抗震救灾应急响应灵活性;在响应与决策模块中利用核心服务器实现数据信息的上传下达,实现快速救援响应。研究中对这套GIS系统与当前方法做对比,进行抗震救灾过程灵活性、救援数据精准性的比较实验。实验对比结果表明,所提研究成果提供的救援数据精确性强,且运行过程中灵活系数等部分指标高于当前研究。