西藏前冬环流及地温特征与夏季旱涝关系

选取西藏地区各区域内严重干旱年和严重洪涝年各5年,分析了北半球500hPa高度距平场同期和前冬环流,同时对旱涝年前冬地温距平与当年夏季旱涝的关系也进行了相关分析。结果表明,干旱年和洪涝年前冬（12月～2月）环流距平分布状况和地温距平有明显差异,这些不同特征是预测西藏夏季旱涝的信号和重要因子。夏季伊朗高压位置偏北或偏南,西太平洋高压脊线和西脊点位置都有一定的指示意义。同时,也可根据2月500hPa高度场正、负距平区位置特点,预测了西藏主要农业区沿雅鲁藏布江一线雨季偏迟或偏早。     

多基准点和基准方向的面阵与线阵影像匹配方法

针对面阵影像与线阵影像之间存在的尺度、旋转等几何差异所导致的难以高效获得稳定可靠匹配点问题,该文提出了一种稳健的面阵影像与线阵影像匹配方法。算法分为3个阶段:(1)对影像进行尺度、旋转预处理,消除影像间的尺度和旋转差异;(2)用Harris算子提取特征点,进行逐层金字塔匹配,在最底层影像上进行最小二乘匹配获取精匹配点,利用随机抽样一致算法获取准确性较高的匹配点;(3)对准确性较高的匹配点分区,构建4块匹配区域,根据每块区域的匹配点计算重心,以此4块区域的重心作为匹配基准点和基准方向,重约束初始匹配结果。通过多组面阵影像与线阵影像数据实验结果,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,可为后续空中三角测量及相关应用提供可靠的匹配点。     

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.     

一种组合优化的多边形化简方法

以多边形轮廓为目标 ,依据曲线特征点将其分解为一系列的弯曲特征 ,并对此弯曲特征集实施组合优化 ,将入围弯曲首尾相连 ,即可得到最终的化简结果     

双频道频谱激电非线性效应研究

利用双频道激发极化法，在封闭条件下和三维大水槽中，对４０余块各种天然矿物标本进行了频谱激电非线性效应研究．实验结果和理论分析表明，当电流密度增加到一定程度时，将出现激电非线性现象．用双频道频谱激电方法，将得到锯齿状频谱曲线．不同类型的矿物，锯齿状频谱曲线具有不同的特征，为评价激电异常源性质提供了新方法．     

月球表面主要矿物反射光谱特性研究

分析了矿物在可见光及近红外区光谱生成的机理,介绍了月球表面最为主要的四种矿物——辉石、斜长石、橄榄石、钛铁矿,并分析了它们各自光谱特征及生成原因,讨论了造成同种矿物光谱差异的原因,给出了它们各自的标志性特征。     

复杂应力路径下饱水砂岩宏细观力学特性研究

饱水作用对砂岩变形及强度特征影响显著,考虑岩体实际赋存环境,为了解复杂应力路径下饱水砂岩宏细观力学特性,利用RMT-150C岩石力学多功能试验机及SEM电镜扫描技术,对饱水砂岩进行循环荷载作用后卸荷破坏试验,研究不同影响因素作用下的疲劳损伤特征,重点分析了加载频率、上限应力等因素对卸荷变形、强度及细观损伤特征的影响规律。研究表明,根据试验设计方案获得的饱水砂岩应力-应变曲线大致可以划分为5个典型阶段,其中,同一应力状态下,疲劳损伤阶段轴向不可逆应变在等速变形阶段的应变速率随加载频率的增大迅速增加,这表明上限应力的“门槛值”极有可能是变化的,且与加载频率及循环次数密切相关;同时,卸围压变形破坏阶段的总应变及围压卸荷量均随加载频率（或上限应力）的增大而减小,与该阶段持续时间随加载频率（或上限应力）的变化规律一致。不仅如此,通过分析饱水砂岩破坏面细观损伤特征发现,加载频率与上限应力作用下的细观损伤特征差异显著,其中破坏面微裂隙面积占比随加载频率增大而减小,上限应力则恰好相反。     

Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide activity. The future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multi-model ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate simulations. The future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall (antecedent conditions and extreme events) and LULC changes towards two time periods (mid and late XXI century). A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different scenarios. The results showed that the magnitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the future. Under the scenario with a return period of 100 years, the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63% whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54% for the late 21st century. The most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming land. The magnitude of this change can reach + 22.1% (forest) and –9.2% (farmland) from 2010 until 2100, respectively. We found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change, leading to an over decrease in stability over the study area. This is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate change. Our results aim to guide land use planning and climate change mitigation considerations to reduce landslide risk.     

近50年疏勒河流域山区的气候变化及其对出山径流的影响

利用祁连山区水文站和气象站的观测数据,分析了近50年河西走廊西部疏勒河流域山区的气候变化及其对出山径流的影响。结果表明,受全球变暖的影响,疏勒河山区气候持续向暖湿转化,且各季气温均呈持续的上升趋势,山区降水量总体上亦呈增加趋势,年际波动比较剧烈。在各季降水量中,除夏季外其他各季降水量的增加比较显著,海拔3 000m以上中高山地带夏季降水量变化不大,3 000m以下中低山地带夏季降水量略有减少。受山区降水,尤其是3 000m以下中低山地带的降水量显著增加与气温上升所引起的冰雪融水补给的影响,疏勒河出山径流呈持续的增加趋势。由于夏季降水量并未增加,在年径流总量中所占比重最大的夏季径流量的增加主要是由于气温上升所引起的冰雪融水补给的增加所致。     

Characterization of Ethiopian mega hydrogeological regimes using GRACE,TRMM and GLDAS datasets

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes is crucial for Ethiopia, a country that is facing a range of challenges in water management caused by anthropogenic impacts as well as climate variability. In addition to this, the scarcity of in situ measurements of soil moisture and groundwater, combined with intrinsic “scale limitations” of traditional methods used in hydrological characterization are further limiting the ability to assess water resource distribution in the region. The primary objective of this study is therefore to apply remotely sensed and model data over Ethiopia in order to (i) test the performance of models and remotely sensed data in modeling water resources distribution in un-gauged arid regions of Ethiopia, (ii) analyze the inter-annual and seasonal variability as well as changes in total water storage (TWS) over Ethiopia, (iii) understand the relationship between TWS changes, rainfall, and soil moisture anomalies over the study region, and (iv) identify the relationship between the characteristics of aquifers and TWS changes. The data used in this study includes; monthly gravity field data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model. Our investigation covers a period of 8 years from 2003 to 2011. The results of the study show that the western part and the north-eastern lowlands of Ethiopia experienced decrease in TWS water between 2003–2011, whereas all the other regions gained water during the study period. The impact of rainfall seasonality was also seen in the TWS changes. Applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to TWS, soil moisture and rainfall variations indentified the dominant annual water variability in the western, north-western, northern, and central regions, and the dominant seasonal variability in the western, north-western, and the eastern regions. A correlation analysis between TWS and rainfall indicated a minimum time lag of zero to a maximum of six months, whereas no lag is noticeable between soil moisture anomalies and TWS changes. The delay response and correlation coefficient between rainfall and TWS appears to be related to recharge mechanisms, revealing that most regions of Ethiopia receive indirect recharge. Our results also show that the magnitude of TWS changes is higher in the western region and lower in the north-eastern region, and that the elevation influences soil moisture as well as TWS.