Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr

This paper presents a high-resolution ice-core pollen record from the Sajama Ice Cap, Bolivia, that spans the last 400 yr. The pollen record corroborates the oxygen isotopic and ice accumulation records from the Quelccaya Ice Cap and supports the scenario that the Little Ice Age (LIA) consisted of two distinct phases—a wet period from AD 1500 to 1700, and a dry period from AD 1700 to 1880. During the dry period xerophytic shrubs expanded to replace puna grasses on the Altiplano, as suggested by a dramatic drop in the Poaceae/Asteraceae (P/A) pollen ratio. The environment around Sajama was probably similar to the desert-like shrublands of the Southern Bolivian Highlands and western Andean slopes today. The striking similarity between the Sajama and Quelccaya proxy records suggests that climatic changes during the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the Altiplano.     

Building deliberative public-private partnerships for waste management in Asia

Public-private partnerships in environmental policy should not simply be viewed in instrumental terms as means of providing environmental infrastructure and services, but also as sites where norms of environmental concern and political accountability are formulated and replicated. Deliberative public-private partnerships--or partnerships that allow greater public participation in the formulation of these norms--may therefore become an important new form of local environmental governance and help make partnerships more relevant to local environmental needs. This paper examines case studies of public-private partnerships in waste-to-energy projects in the Philippines and India to identify how principles of institutional design may enhance the deliberative nature of public-private partnerships in environmental policy. The paper argues that current approaches to deliberative, or cooperative environmental governance concerning public-private partnerships need to acknowledge insights from network theory concerning the communication of environmental and political norms before they can be successfully transferred to developing countries.     

Environmental significance of C/C and O/O ratios of modern land-snail shells from the southern great plains of North America

¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios of aragonite shells of modern land snails from the southern Great Plains of North America were measured for samples from twelve localities in a narrow east-west corridor that extended from the Flint Hills in North Central Oklahoma to the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Northern New Mexico, USA. Across the study area, shell δ¹⁸O values (PDB scale) ranged from −4.1‰ to 1.2‰, while δ¹³C values ranged from −13.2‰ to 0.0‰. δ¹⁸O values of the shell aragonite were predicted with a published, steady state, evaporative flux balance model. The predicted values differed (with one exception) by less than 1‰ from locality averages of measured δ¹⁸O values. This similarity suggests that relative humidity at the time of snail activity is an important control on the δ¹⁸O values of the aragonite and emphasizes the seasonal nature of the climatic information preserved in the shells. Correlated δ¹³C values of coexisting Vallonia and Gastrocopta suggest similar feeding habits and imply that these genera can provide information on variations in southern Great Plains plant ecology. Although there is considerable scatter, multispecies, transect average δ¹³C values of the modern aragonite shells are related to variations in the type of photosynthesis (i.e., C₃, C₄) in the local plant communities. The results of this study emphasize the desirability of obtaining isotope ratios representing averages of many shells in a locale to reduce possible biases associated with local variations among individuals, species, etc., and thus better represent the “neighborhood” scale temporal and/or spatial environmental variations of interest in studies of modern and ancient systems.     

New evidence for an extended occupation of the Provo shoreline and implications for regional climate change, Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah, USA

Lake Bonneville was a climatically sensitive, closed-basin lake that occupied the eastern Great Basin during the late Pleistocene. Ongoing efforts to refine the record of lake level history are important for deciphering climate conditions in the Bonneville basin and for facilitating correlations with regional and global records of climate change. Radiocarbon data from this and other studies suggest that the lake oscillated at or near the Provo level much longer than depicted by current models of lake level change. Radiocarbon data also suggest that the lake dropped from threshold control much more rapidly than previously supposed. These revisions to the Lake Bonneville hydrograph, coupled with independent evidence of climate change from vegetation and glacial records, have important implications for conditions in the Bonneville basin and during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.     

Towards a moral socio-environmental economy: A reconsideration of values

In this intervention article I contribute to discussions of moral economy by arguing that scholars should reconsider the nature of value. Neoliberalism considers only exchange value. As a consequence neoliberal policies try to manage problems such as climate change with economic systems and instruments that are mis-calibrated to the material realities they are meant to represent. Value has spatial and temporal characteristics. Recognizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of value leads to new means of resource valuation, such as extending the time-frame of instruments and changing the nature of privatization. In conclusion, I argue for the need for new theories of use value.     

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.