内蒙古草原的畜牧业气候

畜牧业的发展是我国农业发展的一个重要方面,天然牧草是畜牧业的主要物质基础,本文试图对影响牧草和牲畜的地理分布及生物生产力作一初步分析。     

2×CO2 Eastern Asia regional responses in the RSM/CCM3 modeling system

A global to regional modeling system has been developed to evaluate precipitation under doubled CO₂. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) is initialized and forced by current and doubled CO₂ simulations from the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). Three RSM simulations, RSM0, RSM1, and RSM2, with resolution of 280, 50 and 15 km, are examined. The RSM0 setup resolution matches the T42 CCM3 simulations. The RSM2 simulation is centered over Taiwan. Due to incompatibility of the model physics, noticeable differences between RSM0 and CCM3 are found, especially in wintertime, which suggests that simulation from RSM0, rather than CCM3, should be used to contrast high-resolution regional variations produced by RSM1 or RSM2 simulations.While the spatial distributions of RSM1 and RSM2 simulations over Taiwan are greatly improved over the CCM3 simulation, the intensity of the unique wintertime drizzle is overestimated, especially in RSM2. There is also a spurious northward extension of the precipitation pattern from the subtropical warm-pool region. Thus the regional response to doubled CO₂, which consists of more summerlike wintertime precipitation characteristics over the northeastern and eastern sides of Taiwan, with increased intensity mostly in the extreme events, is still in doubt and must be examined with improved global and regional models.     

作为随机振动的海冰变化模型

本文从B.Saltzman的海温—海冰模式出发,得到了一个描述海冰范围变化的随机气候模型,接着对模型的性质进行了一些分析和讨论,并把从模型得到的模拟谱与计算的南极海冰扩展范围的观测谱做了比较。     

中国七大地区“气候变化—作物产量—经济影响”综合评价

农业作为响应气候变化最敏感的领域之一,未来作物产量可能受到深刻影响。量化气候变化冲击作物产量导致的最终经济影响,需要综合“气候变化—作物产量—经济影响”开展链式研究。文中采用系统回顾和Meta回归分析方法整合了55篇文献的667项研究结果,推导出我国七大地区主要作物（水稻、玉米、小麦）产量与地区内未来温度和降水变化的定量关系,并将其作为农业部门的损失量代入改进的多区域投入产出模型,量化七大地区内与地区间遭受的经济波及影响（ERE)。结果显示：(1)气候变化对我国作物产量的影响主要体现在温度升高上,每升温1℃减产2.6%~12.7%,东北和西北地区作物受升温影响最显著;(2) 气候变化导致的作物减产将对经济产生更严重的波及影响,GDP因作物减产每下降1%将额外产生17.8%的波及影响;(3) 21世纪末,若不考虑CO₂肥效作用,作物减产导致的ERE将占GDP的-0.1%~13.6%（负值表示收益),最悲观情况下ERE与当前我国农业总产值相当（2012年为基准年);(4)不同地区受ERE影响程度的差异较大,因各区之间产业结构、贸易联系及经济发展程度存在差异,西南地区遭受本区及来自其他地区的ERE比华东地区高2.8~8.5倍。     

Political ideology and climate change-mitigating behaviors: Insights from fixed world beliefs

Political conservatives are less likely to adopt climate change-mitigating behaviors, at least compared to their politically liberal counterparts. There thus have been extensive research explaining the so-called left–right divide. In the current research, we propose and test a novel explanation for this divide within the United States. Specifically, it is hypothesized that conservatives are more likely to see the world as fixed and unmalleable, in the sense that what they (as human beings) do to it will have little impact on diminishing the impacts of climate change. This perception and consequence of behavior should be independent of whether or not conservatives believe that global climate change is real and happening. In a study with 1,096 Americans, we find evidence for our hypotheses. Mediation analyses show that greater political conservatism predicts fewer climate change-mitigating behaviors due to greater fixed world beliefs and, consequently, lower perceptions of instrumentality of one’s actions to fight climate change, independent of climate change beliefs. Our work provides the first empirical evidence for a novel insight into why conservatives are less likely to act against climate change. Doing so, we also discuss the theoretical and practical contributions.     

The ‘co’ in co-production of climate action: Challenging boundaries within and between science,policy and practice

Effective action taken against climate change must find ways to unite scientific and practice-based knowledges associated with the various stakeholders who see themselves as invested in the global delivery of climate governance. Political decision-makers, climate scientists and practitioners approach this challenge from what are often radically different perspectives and experiences. While considerable work has been done to develop the idea of ‘co-production’ in the development of climate action outputs, questions remain over how to best unite the contrasting epistemological traditions and norms associated with different stakeholders. Drawing on the existing literatures on climate action co-production and from translational perspectives on the science-policy interface, in this paper we develop the concept of ‘boundary agency’. Defining this as the agency ‘possessed’ when willing and able to translate between different epistemological communities invested in a similar policy and governance challenge such as climate change, we offer it as a useful means to reflect on participants’ understanding of the ‘co’ in co-production. This is in contrast to the more established (often academic-led) focus on what it is that is being produced by co-production processes. We draw from two complementary empirical studies, which explicitly encouraged i) engagement and ii) reflection on cross-boundary co-production between climate action stakeholders from different backgrounds. Reflecting on the two studies, we discuss the benefits of (and barriers to) encouraging more active and sustained engagement between climate action stakeholders so as to try to actively blur the boundaries between science and policy and, in doing so, invent new epistemological communities of practice.     

Factors influencing hazard management by municipalities: The case of coastal communities

As climate and anthropogenic changes increase the vulnerability of coastal areas around the world, the threat (and reality) of coastal hazards grows. These threats arise particularly at a local level, calling out for more knowledge on how to best support coastal municipalities to deal with natural and human-induced hazards. This study seeks to add to the understanding through an examination of local-level experience with hazard planning and responses carried out by coastal municipalities, producing insights on how to reduce their vulnerability and support their resilience. It explores the factors influencing coastal municipalities’ management of relevant hazards to achieve comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction and adaptation. We do so through a national survey of Canada’s coastal municipalities which assessed experience with hazards, risk perception, hazard prioritization, and the extent and specifics of hazard responses. We characterize the determinants of coastal municipalities’ behaviour and intervening factors, and conduct regression analyses to explain coastal municipalities’ risk perception, hazard prioritization, implementation of management processes for dealing with hazards, and the number of implemented or planned hazard responses. Six key factors were identified that influence hazard responses at the municipal level: experience with hazards; competing priorities; hazard visibility; access to resources (financial and technical capacity) and governance (institutional setting and political capacity). We conclude that municipal hazard responses can be reinforced by increasing the effectiveness of risk communication, promoting participatory processes, providing support for municipalities’ identified needs and priorities, ensuring municipalities have access to relevant information and expertise, and implementing integrated coastal governance and management.     

Advising national climate policy makers: A longitudinal analysis of the UK Climate Change Committee

Despite the recent proliferation of national climate change advisory bodies, very little is known about what advice they provide, to whom, and when. To address these gaps in the literature, this article systematically analyses all 700 of the recommendations made by the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) in the period 2009–20. The CCC is one of the oldest climate change advisory bodies of its kind in the world and its design has been widely emulated by other countries. For the first time, this article documents how the CCC’s mitigation and adaptation recommendations have changed over time with respect to their addressee, sectoral focus and policy targets. It reveals that they became: more numerous per year; more cross-sectoral in their nature; clearer in targeting a specific addressee; and more focused in referring to specific policy targets. By drawing on Fischer’s synthesis of policy evaluation to derive a measure of policy ambition, it also reveals that despite many of its recommendations being repeated year after year, the CCC has become more willing to challenge the policy status quo. It concludes by identifying future research needs in this important and fast-moving area of climate governance, notably understanding the conditions in which the recommendations of advisory bodies (do not) impact national policy.     

China’s rising influence on climate governance: Forging a path for the global South

China’s influence on climate governance has been steadily increasing since the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015. Much of this influence, this article argues, has come from China forging a path for climate adaptation and mitigation for the global South. This is having far-reaching consequences, the article further argues, for the politics of global climate governance. China’s discursive and diplomatic power in climate politics is growing as China builds alliances across the global South. China is leveraging this enhanced soft power to elevate the importance of adaptation in multilateral climate negotiations, advance a technocentric approach to climate mitigation, export its development model, and promote industrial-scale afforestation as a nature-based climate solution. China’s strategy is enhancing climate financing, technology transfers, renewable power, and adaptation infrastructure across the global South. To some extent, this is helping with a transition to a low-carbon world economy. Yet China’s leadership is also reinforcing incremental, technocratic, and growth-oriented solutions in global climate governance. These findings advance the understanding of China’s role in global environmental politics, especially its growing influence on climate governance in the global South.     

Aligning climate and sustainable development finance through an SDG lens. The role of development assistance in implementing the Paris Agreement

Climate change and development are strongly interconnected. An efficient use of financial resources would, thus require alignment between climate finance and development priorities, as set out in the context of both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we investigate to what extent climate-related official development assistance (ODA) before and after the Paris Agreement adoption supports the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, we assess to what extent donors align this finance with recipient countries’ climate-related priorities as spelled out in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First, we find that climate-relevant ODA contributes to multiple SDGs, above all SDG 7 (energy) and SDG 11 (cities). Second, we find that there is substantial alignment between donors’ and recipients’ SDG priorities, but that this alignment has not improved in recent years, since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement. Third, we find that albeit climate-finance continues to be allocated more to climate-change mitigation than to adaptation, the difference became smaller in recent years. This reduced the misalignment with recipient countries’ NDC climate activities, which focus more on adaptation than mitigation. Overall, we identify coherence, gaps and opportunities for further alignment of climate and development actions, and related finance. Such an alignment is essential to increase the likelihood of implementation of the two international agreements and to ensure that action is guided by recipient countries’ needs.