Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy

In the past several decades, decision makers in the United States have increasingly called upon publicly funded science to provide “usable” information for policy making, whether in the case of acid rain, famine prevention or climate change policy. As demands for usability become more prevalent for publicly accountable scientific programs, there is a need to better understand opportunities and constraints to science use in order to inform policy design and implementation. Motivated by recent critique of the decision support function of the US Global Change Research Program, this paper seeks to address this issue by specifically examining the production and use of climate science. It reviews empirical evidence from the rich scholarship focused on climate science use, particularly seasonal climate forecasts, to identify factors that constrain or foster usability. It finds, first, that climate science usability is a function both of the context of potential use and of the process of scientific knowledge production itself. Second, nearly every case of successful use of climate knowledge involved some kind of iteration between knowledge producers and users. The paper argues that, rather than an automatic outcome of the call for the production of usable science, iterativity is the result of the action of specific actors and organizations who ‘own’ the task of building the conditions and mechanisms fostering its creation. Several different types of institutional arrangements can accomplish this task, depending on the needs and resources available. While not all of the factors that enhance usability of science for decision making are within the realm of the scientific enterprise itself, many do offer opportunities for improvement. Science policy mechanisms such as the level of flexibility afforded to research projects and the metrics used to evaluate the outcomes of research investment can be critical to providing the necessary foundation for iterativity and production of usable science to occur.     

Trade in ‘virtual carbon’: Empirical results and implications for policy

The fact that developing countries do not have carbon emission caps under the Kyoto Protocol has led to the current interest in high income countries in border taxes on the ‘virtual’ carbon content of imports. We use GTAP data and input-output analysis to estimate the flows of virtual carbon implicit in domestic production technologies and the pattern of international trade. The results present striking evidence on the wide variation in the carbon-intensiveness of trade across countries, with major developing countries being large net exporters of virtual carbon. Our analysis suggests that a tax on virtual carbon could lead to very substantial effective tariff rates on the exports of the most carbon-intensive developing nations. As an illustration, we find that average tariff rates of 10%, 8% and 12% would be faced by imports from China, India and South Africa if carbon is taxed at $50/ton CO₂. Moreover, there is wide variation in intensiveness across sectors within countries with implications for the disparate effective tariff burdens on particulars parts of the economies of these countries. Such empirical findings, we argue, are useful for framing on-going discussions about the principles and practice of border taxes on virtual carbon.     

Mental preparation for climate adaptation: The role of cognition and culture in enhancing adaptive capacity of water management in Kiribati

In many Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised or are in the pipeline. A key focus is on motivating householders to adapt in anticipation of climate change through pilot community projects. In this paper, we argue that the water sector must pay equal attention to how communities cognitively perceive the process of adaptation if interventions are to be effective. Adopting a cognitive model to gain such insights we conclude that individual's belief in their own abilities to manage water stress play a crucial role in driving intentions to adapt and therefore greater attention needs to be placed on understanding the underling drivers shaping such beliefs.     

Knowing, farming and climate change adaptation in North-Central Namibia

The agro-ecological knowledge held by Ovambo farmers in North Central Namibia has, for centuries, given them resilience to high levels of climate variability and associated impacts. New research, conducted in North Central Namibia, suggests that knowledge co-production between farmers and agricultural extension workers may, in addition, strengthen adaptive capacity to future climate change. However, this useful kind of knowledge co-production is far from automatic, and indeed the conditions which make it more likely to happen are not well understood. This paper explores agro-ecological knowledge in North Central Namibia as adaptive capacity, and suggests avenues for better conceptualising and understanding the conditions for adaptive capacity-enhancing knowledge co-production.     

Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States

We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States.     

Trade unions and climate change: The jobs versus environment dilemma

Trade unions are actively engaging with the climate change agenda and formulating climate change policies. Although governments are placing considerable effort on changing consumer behaviour, arguably the most significant impacts on climate change will be through changes in production. Even changes in consumption will have consequences for production. Changes in production will affect workers through the loss of jobs, the changing of jobs, and the creation of new jobs. The jobs versus environment dilemma is a significant issue affecting workers worldwide. In this paper we focus on the ways in which international trade unions are conceptualising the relationship between jobs and the environment, which provide the point of departure from which climate change policies can be formulated. Extended interviews were conducted with senior policy makers in national and international trade unions. On the basis of their responses, four discourses of trade union engagement with climate change are discussed: ‘technological fix’, ‘social transformation’, ‘mutual interests’ and ‘social movement’, which are theorised in the context of the different international histories and models of trade unionism. All discourses imply a re-invention of unions as social movements but do not see nature as a partner in human development.     

Mediated climate change in Britain: Scepticism on the web and on television around Copenhagen

Copenhagen 2009 was a major moment in the development of climate change as an issue. But climate sceptics before and during this event, sought to influence the nature of debate, and for this reason, the way Copenhagen was covered in the mass media was particularly important. This paper outlines the contours of contrarian arguments and claims, and assesses their reflection in the coverage at Copenhagen. The focus is on television, and extends to the assessment of internet - both modes of mass communication underrepresented in the existing literature. The results suggest a higher profile for contrarians and scepticism than is perhaps healthy, and speak to the role of these mass media, now and in the future, particularly with regard to the issue of public comprehension of the issues involved.     

Lights, camera … action? Altered attitudes and behaviour in response to the climate change film The Age of Stupid

The film The Age of Stupid depicts the world in 2055 devastated by climate change, combining this with documentary footage which illustrates many facets of the problems of climate change and fossil-fuel dependency. This study investigates the effects of the film on UK viewers’ attitudes and behaviour through a three-stage survey. Analysis of changes in attitudes focussed particularly on respondents’ concern about climate change, motivation to act, fear about the potential for catastrophe, beliefs about responsibility for action, and sense of agency. The film increased concern about climate change, motivation to act, and viewers’ sense of agency, although these effects had not persisted 10-14 weeks after seeing it. It was also successful in promoting some mitigation actions and behavioural change, although respondents reported barriers to further action, such as limited options for improving home energy efficiency among those in rented accommodation. However, filmgoers were atypical of the general public in that they exhibited very high levels of concern about climate change, knowledge about how to reduce their carbon emissions, and contact with organisations campaigning about climate change, before they saw the film. The paper considers how these factors may have enabled viewers to respond to the film as they did, as well as policy implications for those seeking to develop effective climate change communications.     

Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’?

The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed.     

石家庄市霜冻期的气候异常特征分析

基于1955-2009年逐日最低气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法和异常霜冻指标,分析了石家庄市霜冻期的年际和年代际气候异常特征.结果表明,从气候平均上来看,石家庄市初霜冻日为11月7日,终霜冻日为3月21日,无霜冻期为230d;石家庄市特早初霜冻发生频率为5%,偏早初霜冻发生频率16%,特晚终霜冻发生频率为4%,偏晚终霜冻...