呼伦湖的近期扩张及其与全球气候变化的关系

通过近２０多年湖泊水量平衡分析发现，湖泊水位变化主要由湖盆内径流补给量的丰枯决定。进一步分析揭示，呼伦湖地区乃至整个东北地区，本世纪以来随气温升高，随水有增加的趋势。降水增加导致入湖径流量，湖水位上升，呼伦湖本世纪以来的扩张与内蒙古东部地区其他内陆湖泊的变化一致，但这在我国乃至整个亚洲内陆干旱或半干旱区是独一无二的，为此成为这一地区气候变化的指示器。     

Variability in oceanographic and ecological processes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

This paper brings together unpublished historical data sets and published literature to review the role of climatic, oceanographic and ecological processes in the marine ecosystem of the eastern Canadian Archipelago. Physical data include characteristics of the water masses, circulation patterns, sea ice conditions, and climatic records from 1950s onward. Biological data include unpublished data sets on nutrients, primary and secondary production, and sedimentation, which were collected during the 1980–1990s in the eastern Canadian Archipelago. These results show high year-to-year variability in nutrient inventories and ratios, the magnitude of the ice algae and phytoplankton bloom, the timing of ice algae sedimentation in the spring, and the composition of the zooplankton community. The significance of this high interannual variability and its effect on pelagic–benthic coupling processes is discussed in the context of climatic and oceanographic forcing, with emphasis on recent (past decade) Arctic changes. An estimate of total primary production in the Archipelago is also presented, along with published production estimates for other Arctic shelves, showing that the Archipelago may support up to 32% of the total primary production of Arctic shelves. The high year-to-year variability in production and carbon transfer pathways (e.g. pelagic versus benthic) in the Archipelago suggest that the system might be resilient to the increased variability in climatic conditions occurring in the past decade. However, this increased variability combined with directional change in climatic and oceanographic conditions might also modify the existing balance of ecological processes. For example, shifts in the timing of events appear to have already occurred in the past decade, with potential cascading effects throughout the ecosystem.     

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions continued through to the 1950s and 1960s, with the timing of the decline to colder temperatures varying with location. Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The maximum recorded movement involved cod, which spread approximately 1200 km northward along West Greenland. Migration patterns of “warmer water” species also changed with earlier arrivals and later departures. New spawning sites were observed farther north for several species or stocks while for others the relative contribution from northern spawning sites increased. Some southern species of fish that were unknown in northern areas prior to the warming event became occasional, and in some cases, frequent visitors. Higher recruitment and growth led to increased biomass of important commercial species such as cod and herring in many regions of the northern North Atlantic. Benthos associated with Atlantic waters spread northward off Western Svalbard and eastward into the eastern Barents Sea. Based on increased phytoplankton and zooplankton production in several areas, it is argued that bottom-up processes were the primary cause of these changes. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.     

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton.The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.     

The Aleutian Low, storm tracks, and winter climate variability in the Bering Sea

Previous studies have found inconsistent results regarding how wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea relate to variations in the North Pacific climate system. This problem is addressed through analysis of data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1950–2003. Composite patterns of sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights, storm tracks and surface air temperature are presented for four situations: periods of strong Aleutian Low, weak Aleutian Low, warm Bering Sea air temperatures, and cold Bering Sea air temperatures. Winter temperatures in the Bering Sea are only marginally related to the strength of the Aleutian Low, and are much more sensitive to the position of the Aleutian Low and to variations in storm tracks. In particular, relatively warm temperatures are associated with either an enhanced storm track off the coast of Siberia, and hence anomalous southerly low-level flow, or an enhanced storm track entering the eastern Bering Sea from the southeast. These latter storms do not systematically affect the mean meridional winds, but rather serve to transport mild air of maritime origin over the Bering Sea. The leading indices for the North Pacific, such as the NP and PNA, are more representative of the patterns of tropospheric circulation and storm track anomalies associated with the strength of the Aleutian Low than patterns associated with warm and cold wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea.     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.     

高原大地形及海洋热力强迫对东亚及北半球环流和气候变化影响的观测研究

本文总结了“青藏高原大地形及西太平洋暖池势力强迫对东亚及全球气候变化的影响”专题五年来的主要研究工作。其中包括青世故高原东部大气热源的时间演变特征,夏半年高原热源异常对我国降水和北半球环流的影响;西沙海温变化特征及其与我南方降水的关系,北太平洋海温主因子特征及其与华南前汛期降水的变化。     

Tripartite climate reversal in Central Europe 5600-5300 years ago

The history of variations in water level of Lake Constance, as reconstructed from sediment and pollen analysis of a sediment sequence from the archaeological site of Arbon-Bleiche 3, shows an abrupt rise in lake level dendrochronologically dated to 5375 yr ago (5320 yr relative to AD 1950). This event, paralleled by the destruction of the Neolithic village by fire, provoked the abandonment of this prehistoric lake-shore location established in the former shallow bay of Arbon-Bleiche, and was the last of a series of three episodes of successively higher lake level, the first occurring at 5600-5500 cal yr B.P. The dendrochronologically dated rise event was synchronous with an abrupt increase in atmospheric ¹⁴C. This supports the hypothesis of an abrupt climate change forced by varying solar activity. Moreover, the three successive episodes of higher lake level between 5600 and 5300 cal yr B.P. at Arbon-Bleiche 3 coincided with climatic cooling and/or changes in moisture conditions in various regions of both hemispheres. This period corresponds to the mid-Holocene climate transition (onset of the Neoglaciation) and suggests inter-hemispheric linkages for the climate variations recorded at Arbon-Bleiche 3. This mid-Holocene climate reversal may have resulted from complex interactions between changes in orbital forcing, ocean circulation and solar activity. Finally, despite different seasonal hydrological regimes, the similarities between lake-level records from Lake Constance and from Jurassian lakes over the mid-Holocene period point to time scale as a crucial factor in considering the possible impact of climate change on environments.     

Forests, climate, and silicate rock weathering

Over time periods of 10⁶ years and longer, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is largely controlled by a balance between silicate rock weathering and CO₂ sources (degassing from the Earth plus net organic carbon oxidation). Vegetation cover can affect silicate rock weathering rates by increasing soil CO₂ content, stabilizing soil cover, and producing organic acids. Forests absorb more solar radiation than most other ecosystems; this tends to warm Earth's climate, especially outside of the tropics; this warmth would tend to increase silicate rock weathering rates. Here, we develop preliminary parameterizations of this effect that could be incorporated into carbonate–silicate cycle models, based on the results of general circulation model simulations.