冷锋边界层锋生和锋生环流的诊断研究

本文依据华东中尺度天气试验加密的边界层资料，分析研究了1983年４月２８日江淮地区冷锋锋生过程。发现锋生具有短时性、不均匀性及主要表现在边界层中等特点。文中还用Ekman动量近似导出的边界层锋生环流方程对边界层中的锋生环流做了诊断分析。     

Water Resources of the South Asian Region in a Warmer Atmosphere

The global mean surface temperature may rise by about 0.3oC per decade during the next Few decades as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the earth’s atmosphere. The data generated in the greenhouse warming simulations (Business-as-Usual scenario of IPCC) with the climate models developed at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg have been used to assess future plausible hydrological scenario for the South Asian region. The model results indicate enhanced surface warming (2.7oC for summer and 3.6oC for winter) over the land regions of South Asia during the next hundred years. While there is no significant change in the precipitation over most of the land regions during winter, substantial increase in precipitation is likely to occur during summer. As a result, an increase in soil moisture is likely over central India, Bangladesh and South China during summer but a statistically sig-nificant decline in soil moisture is expected over central China in winter. A moderate decrease in surface runoff may occur over large areas of central China during winter while the flood prone areas of NE-India. Bangladesh and South China are likely to have an increase in surface runoff during summer by the end of next century.     

全球大气臭氧层的主要特征和变化趋势

根据全球臭氧地面站（Ｄｏｂｓｏｎ站、Ｂｒｅｗｅｒ站、Ｍ８３和Ｍ１２４ａｌ）总量资料、臭氧探空廓线资料和雨云卫星（ＴＯＭＳ、ＳＡＧＥⅠｆｏＳＡＧＥⅡ）臭氧总量和廓线资料，给出南、北半球特别是南极地区平流层臭氧主要特征和变化趋势。结果表明，无论是中、低纬地区还是高纬地区（特别是南极地区的“臭氧洞”）臭氧总工从７０年代开始呈下降趋势，特别是近十几年来有加剧下降之势，这是各国政府和科学家极为关注的环境和气候问题。此外，还对臭氧总量变化趋势的各种解释作了综述。     

仰观风云，俯察地理──记我国地理学家何大章

本文以何大章科学覆历为经，地理研究部门为纬，介绍何大章半个世纪以来在华南地理研究，尤其是在气候观测、资料整理、气候区划和气候资源农业开发利用等方面的开拓性贡献，以及在华南地形、水文和环境生态等方面取得的重要成果，展示何大章作为我国当代一位地理学家所走过的人生道路、科学业绩和品格．     

Changing predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies?

The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during 1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT), March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February (NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position, small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s. Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT, T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT + NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall. These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting.     

A note on the performance of climatic forecasts for Asia based on the periodic portion of the data: 1986–1987

Between 1973 and 1986 a group at the University of Wisconsin worked on the use of the periodic portion of climatic time series with the aim of exploring the potential for year-or-more in advance forecasting. This paper reports on the real time verification of the last sets of forecasts made by the group. From spectra of temperature and cube-rooted precipitation the dominant frequencies were chosen. These were usually related to tidal frequencies. A Fourier series of these dominant terms was then fitted to the dependent data set and future values calculated. These were analyzed for forecast skill, and the skillful Fourier series retained. Real time forecasts were then made. Verification shows a low probability that the forecast skills were obtained by chance. It is suggested that the periodic term might be a useful addition to more standard approaches to long range forecasting.     

东北地区低温气象资料共享服务系统的技术实现

该文介绍了"东北地区低温气象资料共享服务系统"的主要实现技术,介绍了数据库技术、存储技术和Web技术在气象资料共享中的运用和实现,认为由现代网络和计算机技术构建的系统可以实现高效、可靠的专题气象资料共享服务.     

全球闪电活动与气候变化

全球闪电活动与气候变化关系的研究正受到越来越多的重视,该文从卫星上观测到的全球闪电活动、闪电活动和全球电路对温度的响应,闪电和对流层上部水汽的联系,闪电和N0,等几方面进行了阐述,指出了闪电活动在气候变化研究中的重要性。同时,文中还对影响闪电活动和起电过程的热力动力作用以及气溶胶的作用等进行了分析。