Implementing climate change adaptation: lessons from India’s national adaptation fund on climate change (NAFCC)

With poverty alleviation and sustainable development as key imperatives for a developing economy like India, what drives the resource-constrained state governments to prioritize actions that address climate change impacts? We examine this question and argue that without access to additional earmarked financial resources, climate action would get overshadowed by developmental priorities and effective mainstreaming might not be possible. A systematic literature review was carried out to draw insights from the current state of implementation of adaptation projects, programmes and schemes at the subnational levels, along with barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The findings from a literature review were supplemented with lessons emerging from the implementation of India’s National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC). The results of this study underscore the scheme’s relevance.

Key policy insights

• Experience with NAFCC implementation reveals that states require sustained ‘handholding’ in terms of financial, technical and capacity support until climate change issues are fully understood and embedded in the policy landscape.

• Domestic sources of finance are critically important in the absence of predictable and adequate adaptation finance from international sources.

• The dedicated window for climate finance fosters a spirit of competitive federalism among states and encourages enhanced climate action.

• Enhanced budgetary allocation to NAFCC to strengthen the state-level adaptation response and create capacity to mainstream climate change concerns in state planning frames, is urgently needed.

     

On the linkage between changes in cloud cover and precipitation extremes over Central India

In this study, linkage between changing characteristics of precipitation extremes and cloud covers over Central India is explored during summer monsoon period using Satellite data (1998–2015). This is a first attempt to relate the changes in cloud cover to the changes in precipitation extremes. Non-rainy cirrus clouds are excluded from this study. Results show that heavy rainfall (≥ 60 mm/day) is associated with cold cloud tops (Tb≤220 K) while moderate rainfall (<60 mm/day and ≥20 mm) occurs mostly with middle clouds (Tb>220 K and ≤245 K). Low level clouds (Tb> 245 K) are responsible for light rainfall (<20 mm/day). Increases in top 20%, 10%, 5% and 1% heavy precipitation relate well with the increases in very deep convective, deep convective and convective cloud cover. Among these relations, increase in top 5% heavy precipitation relates best with increase in very deep convective cloud cover. Decrease in bottom 30% low precipitation relates with decrease in low level cloud cover. The results reported in this study fit into the framework of how weather extremes respond to climate change.     

Iran's precipitation analysis using synoptic modeling of major teleconnection forces (MTF)

In this relatively unprecedented study, the effects of thirty-four leading teleconnection Patterns (indices) of atmospheric circulation- on regional-scale for the Middle East- along with precipitation over Iran have been investigated. Different types of data including teleconnection Indices from NOAA (NCEP/NCAR, BOM) and monthly precipitation data from thirty-six synoptic stations of Iran were applied. The data have been investigated with various types of statistical and synoptical methods. The results indicate that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most effective factor and it could possibly influence the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation on all types of climate regimes in Iran. ENSO (nino3.4), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and The Arctic oscillation (AO) are known as the first three important indices, determined by Principal component analysis (PCA) method. The research has clarified that a combination of warm phase of ENSO and a predominant Southeastern (SE) wind over the Indian Ocean can result in a significant moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and to Iran; a combination of cold phase of ENSO and a predominant Northwestern (NW) wind over the Indian Ocean can be followed by a widespread drought over the Middle East and Iran. The results also indicate that a combination of the first three important above-mentioned indices and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can provide a much better explanation for spatial and temporal variation of precipitation of Iran. Finally, the results of this study will enable us to present a new approach and new graphical-conceptual modeling, called "Teleconnection-Synoptic Method (TSM)"to clarify the underlying mechanism that can explain the spatial and temporal variations of global atmospheric circulation and precipitation of Iran. According to the correlation of different patterns with precipitation, the strongest relationships are related to the Scandinavia Index (SCN), Pressure Change in East Pacific (dPEPac) and Trade Wind Index at the 850 hPa (TrdWnd850), respectively.     

Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis

There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.     

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.     

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.     

Planning for the past: Local temporality and the construction of denial in climate change adaptation

Climate change is upon us. While debates continue over how to mitigate emissions, it is evident that many parts of the world will need to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate. However, the persistence of climate denial presents a significant barrier to climate change response; if a future in which the climate has dramatically changed cannot be imagined, there is little motivation to act. Using qualitative interview data, our research investigates community responses to climate change adaptation planning in a coastal region of Australia identified as highly vulnerable to future sea level rise. While the local council engaged in extensive consultation to develop an adaptation plan, community opposition to proposed development changes ultimately resulted in a ‘wait and see’ response. We show how the community’s local understandings of place informed temporalities that led to a practice of climate denial. We outline three processes by which climate denial is socially organised: anchoring the past via historical reference; projecting continuity through a nostalgic lens of managing disaster; and enclosing the present by prioritising existing economic value. We show how these processes result in the social organisation of climate denial, and an inability to plan for a climate changed future.     

On matryoshkas and meaning-making: Understanding the plasticity of climate change

Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions.     

内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件环流演变特征及季节预测信号

文章研究关注了内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件的季节预测问题,在对大量降水观测资料、海温及大气环流场资料进行统计、分析、研究的基础上,确定了历史上58a(1960—2017年)内蒙古冬季极端多雪和少雪气候事件样本,通过对大气环流场的对比分析发现极端多雪或少雪冬季环流场特征显著不同,分析后确定了影响内蒙古冬季降雪的主要环流系统,包括西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、东亚大槽、环流E型及南方涛动等系统。同时,探索了对这些主要环流系统具有预测意义的来自海洋和大气场的预测信号,对预测信号关键区做了标准化定量提取,确定了预测信号综合指数分段判别阈值,给出了预测概念模型,取得了较好预测效果。     

杭锦旗北部牧草引种试验

利用在内蒙古杭锦旗北部进行牧草引种试验的数据,结合产量效益分析了4个牧草品种对当地土壤与气候条件的适应性,初步得出适应杭锦旗北部气候、生态条件的牧草品种,并通过产量效益分析,确定了适合当地的牧草间、混作模式,为当地建立人工饲草基地发展生态畜牧业提供决策参考。