Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.     

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.     

近30年中国地面风速分区及气候特征

通过中国近地面风速区划可以深入了解风速分布规律,有助于研究风速的变化机制。利用1980-2009年中国608个测站的日平均风速资料,经过旋转经验正交函数分解法(REOF)得到10个分区,各分区范围和地形有一定的关系。风速频率曲线变化表明,中国北部地区(第3、4区)风速偏大,中部地区(第2、10区)风速普遍较小;对比分析了区域有效风速日数频率和风能分布。根据谐波方法得到各分区风速的年变化特征,大部分区域呈单峰单谷型或双峰双谷型,高值区主要出现在春季,并分析了形成上述特点的可能天气学成因。风速线性倾向估计结果表明,中国大部分地区风速呈减小趋势,第1、4、5区平均风速递减率在-0.028~-0.023 m·s-1·a-1之间,但是,中部地区(第2区、第6区西部、第10区)年平均风速出现递增。通过Mann-Kendan法和小波分析方法检测表明,第2、3、5区突变点出现在2000年附近,第1、4、6区突变点出现在20世纪90年代初。环流特征量指数和风速同期相关性分析,揭示了北极涡和副热带高压对风速的影响。     

1961~2010年黄河中下游地区24节气气候变化特征分析

24节气是我国古代劳动人民的独特创造。全面掌握"24节气"的气候变化规律,不但有利于指导农事生产,提高气象服务质量和水平,而且在为人类预防和治疗疾病方面也有重要意义。在全球变暖的气候背景下,统计分析了1961~2010年黄河中下游地区24节气的气温、湿度、风速等6个气象要素的变化特征,得到以下结论:黄河中下游地区随节气变换气候变化显著,大暑、小暑节气高温高湿,小寒、大寒节气寒冷干燥,清明节气寒温反复大风将至,霜降节气天气渐凉秋燥加剧等。50年内,春季型节气(平均、最高、最低)气温显著升高,冬季型节气最低气温升高显著。气压随节气变化特征与气温大致相反,夏、秋季节气有升压趋势。相对湿度与降水均呈减少趋势,以秋季型节气减小趋势最明显。春季风速最大,夏、秋季风速最小,所有节气风速均呈减小趋势,冬夏季节气日照时间呈缩短趋势。     

A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合,采用雨养与灌溉两种方式,并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应,模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明:无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式,未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短,并且随着温度增高,2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长,单季稻生育期缩短时间最长,可达15~20 d。雨养条件下,除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外,其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大,2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为6.9%和10.2%,2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观,尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产,两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的,且随着温度升高,到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看,A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观,即使采用充分灌溉的方式,也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段,两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%;2040s时段,两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润,与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian'an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors.　(3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening of landscape suitability.     

Preservation of layered paleodeposits in high-latitude pedestal craters on Mars

An outstanding question in Mars’ climate history is whether or not pedestal craters represent the armored remnants of ice-rich paleodeposits. We address this question using new high-resolution images; in a survey of several hundred high-latitude pedestal craters, we have identified 12 examples in which visible and/or topographically expressed layers are exposed on the marginal scarp of the pedestal. One example, located on the south polar layered deposits, preserves ice-rich layers that have otherwise been completely removed from the polar cap. These observations provide empirical evidence that the pedestal crater formation mechanism is capable of armoring and preserving ice-rich layered paleodeposits. Although layered exposures have not yet been observed in mid-latitude pedestal craters, high-latitude instances of discontinuous, partially covered layers suggest that layers can be readily concealed, likely through mantling and/or mass wasting processes along the marginal scarp. This interpretation is supported by the observation that high-latitude pedestals with exposed layers along their margins are, on average, taller than mid-latitude examples, and have larger, steeper marginal scarps, which may help to maintain layer exposures. These observations favor the interpretation that mid- to high-latitude pedestal craters represent the armored remnants of ice- and dust-rich paleodeposits, which occurred transiently due to changes in the climate regime. Preservation of fine-scale layering of ice and dust at these latitudes implies that the climate change did not involve regional melting conditions.     

Annual survey of water vapor behavior from the OMEGA mapping spectrometer onboard Mars Express

We present here the annual behavior of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, as observed by the OMEGA spectrometer on board Mars Express during its first martian year. We consider all the different features of the cycle of water vapor: temporal evolution, both at a seasonal and at a diurnal scale; longitudinal distribution; and the vertical profile, through the variations in the saturation height. We put our results into the context of the current knowledge on the water cycle through a systematic comparison with the already published datasets. The seasonal behavior is in very good agreement with past and simultaneous retrievals both qualitatively and quantitatively, within the uncertainties. The average water vapor abundance during the year is ∼10 pr. μm, with an imbalance between northern and southern hemisphere, in favor of the first. The maximum of activity, up to 60 pr. μm, occurs at high northern latitudes during local summer and shows the dominance of the northern polar cap within the driving processes of the water cycle. A corresponding maximum at southern polar latitudes during the local summer is present, but less structured and intense. It reaches ∼25 pr. μm at its peak. Global circulation has some influence in shaping the water cycle, but it is less prominent than the results from previous instruments suggest. No significant correlation between water vapor column density and local hour is detected. We can constrain the amount of water vapor exchanged between the surface and the atmosphere to few pr. μm. This is consistent with recent results by OMEGA and PFS-LW. The action of the regolith layer on the global water cycle seems to be minor, but it cannot be precisely constrained. The distribution of water vapor on the planet, after removing the topography, shows the already known two-maxima system, over Tharsis and Arabia Terra. However, the Arabia Terra increase is quite fragmented compared with previous observations. A deep zone of minimum separates the two regions. The saturation height of water vapor is mainly governed by the variations of insolation during the year. It is confined within 5-15 km from the surface at aphelion, while in the perihelion season it stretches up to 55 km of altitude.     

NDVI与气候因子关系在不同时间尺度上的结果差异

植被指数是反映地表植被覆盖状况的重要参数,分析气候因子与植被指数间的相互关系有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响,然而当前研究有两种分析植被指数与气候因子关系的方法,分别为分析植被指数与生长季内和生长季间气候因子的关系,然而这两种法差异如何,何种方法更为合适需要进一步分析。利用2000年—2009年生长季的MODIS的归一化植被指数NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)数据集和藏北那曲地区3个气象站逐月气象资料(月平均气温、≥0℃活动积温和月降水量),分析比较了生长季内和生长季间气候因子对植被生长影响的差异,并分析了两种方法的优劣。结果表明:(1)生长季内植被NDVI与同期气温和降水量均呈高度正相关,生长季内时滞时间尺度为1个月时,植被NDVI对月平均气温及降水响应均最为强烈。(2)生长季间NDVI与同期降水量相关性并不明显,气候因子的滞后效应在生长季间也较弱。(3)生长季内和生长季间植被NDVI与气候因子的关系所得出的结论有一定差异性,可能是因为两方面的原因:生长季内植被NDVI与水热因子的高相关性与中国季风季候造成的高温多雨出现在夏季有关,而生长季内高水热条件与高植被指数对应的多年重复必然造伪的高相关系数,但这种相关性不一定能真实反映植被与水热条件的关系,而生长季间水热等气候因子与植被指数年际变化相关性分析不存在水热与高植被指数同期问题,更能真实反映气候因子年际变化对植被的影响。     

Evaporation effects on the formation of martian gullies

In order to investigate the formation of martian gullies and the stability of fluids on Mars, we examined about 120 gully images. Twelve HiRISE images contained a sufficient number of Transverse Aeolian Ridges (TARs) associated with the gullies to make the following measurements: overall gully length, length of the alcove, channel and apron, and we also measured the frequency of nearby TARs. Six of the 12 images examined showed a statistically significant negative correlation between overall gully length (alcove, channel and apron length) and TAR frequency. Previous experimental work from our group has shown that at temperatures below ∼200 K, evaporation rate increases by about an order of magnitude as wind speed increases from 0 to ∼15 m/s. Thus the negative correlations we observe between gully length and dune frequency can be explained by formation at temperatures below ∼200 K where wind speed/evaporation is a factor governing gully length. In these cases evaporation of the fluid carving the gully was a constraint on their dimensions. Cases where there is no correlation between gully length and TAR frequency, can be explained by formation at temperatures >200 K. The temperatures are consistent with Global Circulation Model and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data for these latitudes. The temperatures suggested by these trends are consistent with the fluid responsible for gully formation being a strong brine, such as Fe₂(SO₄)₃ which has a eutectic temperature of ∼200 K. We also find that formation timescales for gullies are 10⁵-10⁶ years.