The Arctic is no longer put on ice: Evaluation of Polar cod (Boreogadussaida) as a monitoring species of oil pollution in cold waters

The withdrawing Arctic ice edge will facilitate future sea transport and exploration activities in the area, which calls for the establishment of relevant cold water monitoring species. The present study presents first results of field baseline levels for core oil pollution biomarkers in Polar cod (Boreogadussaida) sampled from pristine, Arctic waters. Furthermore, biomarker response levels were characterized in controlled laboratory exposure experiments running over 2 weeks. Fish exposed to a simulated petrogenic spill (1 ppm dispersed, crude oil) exhibited elevated hepatic EROD activity, bile PAH-metabolites, and hepatic DNA-adducts, whereas male individuals exposed to simulated produced water (30 ppb nonylphenol) exhibited a strong induction of plasma vitellogenin. In conclusion, the results demonstrated low and robust biomarker baseline levels that were clearly different from exposure responses. In combination with its high abundance and circumpolar distribution, the Polar cod seems well qualified for oil pollution monitoring in Arctic waters.     

Flow prediction in high altitude ungauged catchments: A case study in the Italian Alps (Pantano Basin,Adamello Group)

We develop a simple model to evaluate the daily flow discharges in the ablation season for the 11 km² Pantano basin in the Retiche Italian Alps, based upon the data gathered during a three years field campaign. The Pantano basin embeds the Venerocolo debris covered and the Avio debris free glaciers, covering 2.14 km² in the Adamello Group, where the widest Italian glacier Adamello is located. First, degree-day models based upon air temperature are tuned to calculate snow and ice melt at daily scale. Glaciers’ meteorological data are collected from an automatic weather station (AWS), operating on the glacier during summer 2007. The melt factors in the debris covered areas of the glacier are estimated against debris thickness, using a data driven parameterization. The flow discharge from the catchment is estimated using semi distributed flow routing for the ablation seasons of four years, from 2006 to 2009. The predicted discharges are compared to those derived from inverse reservoir's routing at the Benedetto lake, catching the basin outflow. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged glacierized areas, including those with debris covered ice, widely diffused and yet poorly understood. Pending accurate parameterization the approach is usable for water resources evaluation and for long term assessment of the climate change impact on the glacierized areas within the Alps.     

An ecohydrological approach to predicting regional woody species distribution patterns in dryland ecosystems

This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts.     

Climate threats,water supply vulnerability and the risk of a water crisis in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (Northeastern Mexico)

This paper evaluates the risk of a water crisis – a substantial, sudden reduction in water supply – in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), posed by climate threats and the vulnerability of its water supply system. Our analysis of long-term precipitation, water supply and water availability data reveals that the MMA is highly vulnerable to recurring periods of exceptionally low precipitation and scarce surface water availability. We identify two episodes in the recent past (1998 and 2013) when the MMA water supply system almost collapsed as reservoirs neared depletion in the face of abnormally dry weather. Furthermore our climate projections point to warmer and drier future conditions for the region and consequently, heightened climate threats. We conclude that the risk of a water crisis in the MMA is substantial and probably will increase due to climate change. This establishes a clear and pressing need for a comprehensive package of adaptation measures to mitigate the consequences of a water crisis should one occur as well as to reduce the likelihood of such an event.     

High resolution WRF climatic simulations for the Iberian Peninsula: Model validation

A high resolution atmospheric modelling study was done for a 20-year recent historical period. The dynamic downscaling approach adopted used the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to drive the WRF running in climate mode. Three online nested domains were used covering part of the North Atlantic and Europe, with a resolution 81 km, and reaching 9 km in the innermost domain which covers the Iberian Peninsula.This paper presents the validation of the WRF configuration, which is based on historic simulations between 1986 and 2005 and observational datasets of near surface temperature and precipitation for the same period. The validation was done in terms of comparison of probability distributions between model results and observations, as daily climatologies, spatially averaged inside subdomains obtained with cluster analysis of the observations, for each of the four seasons. In addition, Taylor diagrams are presented for each of the seasons and subdomains. This validation approach was repeated with the results of a new WRF simulation with the same parameterisations but forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The capacity of the MPI-ESM driven WRF configuration to compare with observations and in a manner similar to the ERA-Interim driven WRF, ensures the capacity of the configuration for climate and climate change studies.Considering the difficulty to simulate extremes in long term simulations, the results showed a comfortable comparison of both models (forced by climate model and reanalysis results) with observations. This provides us confidence on the continuity of using the MPI-ESM driven WRF configuration for climate studies.     

Global change and the biogeochemistry of the North Sea: the possible role of phytoplankton and phytoplankton grazing

Phytoplankton plays a dominant role in shelf biogeochemistry by producing the major part of organic matter. Part of the organic matter will reach the sediment where diagenetic processes like denitrification, apatite formation or burial will remove nutrients from the biogeochemical cycle. In this article current knowledge on the decadal plankton variability in the North Sea is summarized and possible implications of these changes for the biogeochemistry of the North Sea are discussed. Most of the observed interdecadal dynamics seem to be linked to large-scale oceanographic and atmospheric processes. Prominent changes in the North Sea ecosystem have taken place around 1979 and 1988. In general, the phytoplankton color (CPRS indicator of phytoplankton biomass) reached minimum values during the end of the 1970s and has increased especially since the mid 1980s. Changes with a similar timing have been identified in many time series from the North Sea through the entire ecosystem and are sometimes referred to as regime shifts. It is suggested that the impact of global change on the local biogeochemistry is largely driven by the phyto- and zooplankton dynamics during spring and early summer. At that time the extent of zooplankton–phytoplankton interaction either allows that a large part of the new production is settling to the sediment, or that a significant part of the new production including the fixed nutrients is kept within the pelagic system. The origin of the extent of the phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in spring is probably set in the previous autumn and winter. In coastal areas, both large-scale atmospheric and oceanographic changes as well as anthropogenic factors influence the long-term dynamics. Due to eutrophication, local primary production nowadays still is up to five times higher than during pre-industrial conditions, despite a decreasing trend. Recently, introduced species have strengthened the filter feeder component of coastal ecosystems. Especially in shallow coastal seas like the Wadden Sea, this will enhance particle retention, shift organic matter degradation to the benthic compartment and enhance nutrient removal from the biogeochemical cycle by denitrification or apatite formation.     

Differential modulation of eastern oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.     

Meteorological Observations 2002 at the Arctic Station,Qeqertarsuaq (69°15'N), Central West Greenland

An automatic meteorological station has been operating at the Arctic Station (69°15'N, 53°31'W) in West Greenland since 1990. This paper summarises meteorological parameters during 2002, including snow cover, ground temperatures and active layer development, and air temperatures at the Station during the last 12 years are compared to large scale trends during the last century.

A compilation of 93 sedimentation rate determinations based on ²¹⁰Pb dating has been carried out for the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition area from a database containing 165 determinations carried out by Danish institutions. In the depositional parts of the area sedimentation rates generally range 25–6403 g m^?2 y^?1. An extreme rate of 13351 g m^?2 y^?1 is observed on a station in the Skagerrak. Sedimentation rates significantly increase with depth indicating that the Skagerrak and northern parts of the Kattegat as well as the deep basins in the Baltic Sea act as depocentres for fine-grained sediments. Apparently, sedimentation rates have increased in recent years.     

Climate change scenario planning in Alaska's National Parks: Stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process

This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska's National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants' attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.     

Tectonic and climatic controls on late Quaternary bajada sedimentation along Narmada-Son Fault(NSF),Gujarat,Western India

An alluvial bajada has been recognized along a part of the active Narmada-Son Fault(NSF) and confined by the Karjan River on the eastern side and by the Madhumati River on western side.The bajada sequence exposed along the incised cliffs of various north flowing parallel streams has been studied in their proximal,medial and distal part. The sediments are characterized on the basis of grain size,fabric,sedimentary structures,bed geometry and sorting, and lithologs prepared from the mapped cliff sections.Detailed study of sedimentary characteristics,lithofacies analysis and facies associations indicate that sediments are mainly of three types-sediments that were deposited by debris flows and sediment gravity flows,and as extensive bar deposits.Three major aggredational sequences are recognized.Each sequence is composed of coarsening-upward sequence of proximal facies overlain by fining-upward sequence of distal facies.Coarsening upward sequence record periods of tectonic activity related to uplift along the NSF and fan progradation,whereas fining-upward sequence results from tectonic quiescence periods.The presence of rhizocretions,calcium carbonate nodules and calcite sheets within the basal debris flow and sediment gravity flow indicate semi-arid climate,whereas the formation of pedoginized paleosol indicate relatively wetter climate prevailing in the study area.Tectonic activity along the NSF has played dominant role by controlling the geometry and volume of bajada sediments.Climate is found to be responsible for compositional and temporal distribution of bajada sediments.OSL dating suggests that the bajada sediments were deposited during the later part of late Pleistocene.The incision of the sediments is attributed to uplift due to inversion of the lower Narmada basin during the early Holocene.