1953-2005年内蒙古东部产粮区气候变化特征研究

利用系统聚类分析和相关分析方法,根据1953--2005年内蒙古东部产粮区48个气象站的气象资料．进行了气候相似区划分;并得出各区在热量、水分的时间变化上具有较高的区域一致性。据此,以区域内各站点的温度、降水和日照时数的平均值作为区域热水光时间序列,分析了各气候要素变化特征及其对农业可能产生的影响。结果表明：各区域温度呈上升趋势,增温速率（平均增温为0．3-0．4℃／10a）高于中国平均增温速率（0．22℃／10a）,增温幅度呈从西向东递增的趋势,平均最低气温增幅最大,平均最高气温增温幅度与海拔呈正相关,尤以1988年以后变暖趋势最为明显;降水量基本呈减少趋势,年代际波动较大;20世纪90年代至今,内蒙古东部产粮区生长季降水明显减少,气温迅速升高,暖千化趋势表现明显,温差减小和日照时数减少,水热匹配格局发生改变,粮食产量出现减少趋势的可能性较大。     

Amazonian northern mid-latitude glaciation on Mars: A proposed climate scenario

Recent geological observations in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars show evidence for past glacial activity during the late Amazonian, similar to the integrated glacial landsystems in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. The large accumulation of ice (many hundreds of meters) required to create the observed glacial deposits points to significant atmospheric precipitation, snow and ice accumulation, and glacial flow. In order to understand the climate scenario required for these conditions, we used the LMD (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique) Mars GCM (General Circulation Model), which is able to reproduce the present-day water cycle, and to predict past deposition of ice consistent with geological observations in many cases. Prior to this analysis, however, significant mid-latitude glaciation had not been simulated by the model, run under a range of parameters.In this analysis, we studied the response of the GCM to a wider range of orbital configurations and water ice reservoirs, and show that during periods of moderate obliquity (? = 25-35°) and high dust opacity (τ_dust = 1.5-2.5), broad-scale glaciation in the northern mid-latitudes occurs if water ice deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis volcanoes at higher obliquity is available for sublimation. We find that high dust contents of the atmosphere increase its water vapor holding capacity, thereby moving the saturation region to the northern mid-latitudes. Precipitation events are then controlled by topographic forcing of stationary planetary waves and transient weather systems, producing surface ice distribution and amounts that are consistent with the geological record. Ice accumulation rates of ∼10 mm yr⁻¹ lead to the formation of a 500-1000 m thick regional ice sheet that will produce glacial flow patterns consistent with the geological observations.     

Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.     

Major element geochemical variations in a Miocene-Pliocene Siwalik paleosol sequence: Implications to soil forming processes in the Himalayan foreland basin

Elemental mobility based on major element geochemistry from 58 horizons related to six paleosols profiles in a typical Miocene — Pliocene Siwalik fluvial sequence in the NW Himalaya has been reported here. The paleosols developed over felsic parent material of fine to medium grained sandstone indicate notable enrichment of sesquioxides (Al₂O₃ = 29 % and Fe₂O₃ = 54 %) depicting significant leaching and dissolution. The depletion of base cations (mean wt% of Na₂O = 0.24; CaO = 0.51) and SiO₂ (mean wt% = 63.6) in the pedogenic layers and its enrichment in the parental material (mean wt% of Na₂O = 0.44; CaO = 1.3; SiO₂ = 70.1) shows a good gradient of elemental mobility due to pedogenesis. Bivariate plots of the base ratios (Na₂O/K₂O, CaO/K₂O, and MgO/K₂O) vs. Al₂O₃ reveal independent distribution for parent material, pedogenic horizons and the incipient zone indicating the gradual addition/removal of immobile/mobile elements with varying pedogenesis. Discontinuous and segmented pattern of the geochemical parameters enables discrimination of multiple pedogenic episodes and recognition of soil welding processes in the multistorey composite paleosols. We also test the applicability of the geochemical climofunctions: the Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) and Mean Annual Temperature (MAT); that demands more data for calibration in the Siwalik paleosols.     

Early and Middle Pleistocene landscapes of eastern England

This paper reviews the pattern of climate and environmental change in eastern England over the period of the Early and Middle Pleistocene, focussing especially upon northern East Anglia. Particular attention is given to the climate and tectonics that have brought about these changes and the distinctive geology, topography and biology that has developed. Throughout, an attempt is made to describe the new models that have been proposed for the Early and Middle Pleistocene of eastern England, and explain the reasons for these changes. The Early Pleistocene experienced relatively high insulation and relatively low magnitude climatic change and is represented primarily by non-climatically forced processes in the form of tidal current- and wave-activity which formed shallow marine deposits. It is possible to recognise a tectonic control in the distribution of deposits of this age because the surface processes do not have the power to remove this signature. The early Middle Pleistocene was dominated by higher magnitude climatic change involving, occasionally, climatic extremes that ranged from permafrost to mediterranean. The landscape at this time was dominated by the behaviour of major rivers (Thames, Bytham, Ancaster) and extensive coastal activity. In the latter part of the early Middle Pleistocene and the Late Middle Pleistocene the climate experienced major changes which resulted in periods of lowland glaciation and short intervals when the climate was warmer than the present. Details of tectonic activity are difficult to identify because they are removed by powerful surface processes, but it is possible to infer uplift focussed on the major interfluves of central England and subsidence in the North Seas basin. In the areas of glaciation the landscape changed radically from an organised terrain dominated by large rivers and extensive shallow coastal zones to complex, with small valleys, disrupted drainage and often discontinuous river, slope and coastal deposits. Likewise the switching off of the North Sea Delta and the opening of the Strait of Dover, separating Britain from continental Europe can be attributed to the onset of lowland glaciation. The case is made that eastern England was glaciated four times during the Middle Pleistocene: during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6, and attention is given to recent evidence contradicting this model. Over the period of the Middle Pleistocene there is evidence for high biomass production occurring over short intervals coinciding with the climatic optima of MIS 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, and 7c, 7a and during most of these warmer periods, extending back to c. 750 ka (MIS 19/17), there is evidence in the region for the brief appearance of humans.     

The Great Barrier Reef: a 700 000 year diagenetic history

A deep borehole through Ribbon Reef 5 in the Great Barrier Reef off north‐eastern Australia has identified a variety of cements, including epitaxial, radial prismatic and spherular aragonite, together with blocky, prismatic and fibrous calcite. These cements are discontinuously arranged within the sequence that consists predominantly of grainstones but locally includes clotted muddy and filamentous textures that may be of microbial origin. Calcite cements vary in morphology with groups of crystals that include acute scalenohedral, rhombohedral and flattened concordant terminations; these show varying densities of inclusions that locally define growth zones and in some terminations divide in the manner of ‘split crystals’ to form fibrous fringes. Morphological changes in calcite are inferred to reflect changes in water chemistry and crystal growth rates at the time of growth, allied to their relationship to the palaeo‐water table, and linked in turn to changes in sea‐level. Neomorphism and dissolution are widespread and variations in the severity of both imply response to the degree of undersaturation of pore waters that at times were probably balanced within very narrow limits. A total of 10 depositional units are identified. Those units at the base of the borehole reflect deposition and diagenesis within a marine environment. The influence of meteoric waters, indicated by stable isotopes, is first apparent at the top of Unit 1 and in Unit 2 (184 to 155 m below sea floor). Petrographic evidence of vadose conditions appears at the tops of Unit 3 (131 to 99 m below sea floor). Units 4 to 8, all deposited under marine conditions, provide isotopic evidence of meteoric or mixing‐zone waters and petrographic indicators of vadose conditions, typically at the top of the units. Evidence indicates that in Unit 5 the water table was mobile and Units 6a, 6b, 7 and 8, all characterized by ultraviolet fluorescent cements, are capped by sub‐aerial erosion surfaces. Unit 9 (the Holocene) reflects the recent re‐establishment of marine conditions. The extent of alteration of the entire sequence reflects the substantial and pervasive influence of meteoric waters. This effect is interpreted as a result of a greater rainfall and river flow from the mainland during early and late stages of interstadial periods. The study reflects progress in the ability to recognize the diagenetic signal generated by sea‐level change. However, whereas the isotopic results reflect the changing relationships between vadose and phreatic zones in groundwater systems beneath successive emergent surfaces, their correspondence with petrographic features is expressed only weakly and commonly lacks the systematic sequential overprinting implied by the distribution of cathodoluminescent zones of cements in many ancient limestones.     

Assessment of global meteorological,hydrological and agricultural drought under future warming based on CMIP6

在全球变暖背景下,分析和预测干旱的变化趋势和传播规律对于区域生态环境安全和灾害管理具有重要意义.本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),分析了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种变暖情景下的气象(标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸发指数SPED,水文(标准化径流指数SRI)和农业(标准化土壤水分指数SSI)...     

Southern high latitude climate variability in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ¹⁸O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous.     

Temporal-spatial Distribution of Suitable Areas for Major Food Crops in China Over 60 Years

Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth, reducing the vulnerability of crop growth, and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change. This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat, maize and rice, and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables, as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables. The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012. The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change. The results showed the following: \mathrm{①} The response to climate change of the areas suitable for food crops could be ranked from strongest to weakest as follows: wheat, rice, and maize. \mathrm{②} On the same space-time scale, for the growth of wheat and rice, the southern agricultural regions, mountainous areas and plateaus were relatively unsuitable for a wider variety of crops than the northern agricultural regions, plains and basins. \mathrm{③} The adaptability of wheat increased in the major agricultural regions slightly. The adaptability of maize increased in the northern agricultural regions and decreased in the southern agricultural regions, respectively. The adaptability of rice was stable in the southern agricultural regions, and it decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and increased in the northeastern region. \mathrm{④} Over 60 years, the ability of the major food crops to adapt to climate change increased in the northeast region, Gansu-Xinjiang region, Southwest region and Loess Plateau region, but the adaptability of major food crops decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Mid-and-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. \mathrm{⑤} The suitable areas of maize and rice were significantly correlated with planting areas and yields, respectively, which provided feasibility for simulating the distribution of suitable areas on maize and rice in different climate scenarios in the future. The suitable area of wheat is not significantly related to the planting area and yield. In the future, we will take more factors to model the suitable area of wheat accurately.     

Review of the Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean with Its Impact on Heat and Salt Transport and Regional Climate Modes

Due to the IO monsoon impact, the tropical IO circulation has significant seasonal variation, especially in the northern IO. However, in mean-state, a relatively closed current loop is established by eastward current along the equator and westward current south of equator, which is regarded as Tropical Gyre in the Indian Ocean. Based on this circulation system, relevant studies were reviewed. Its impact on heat and salt transports and regional climate changes were discussed.