Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.     

近30年中国地面风速分区及气候特征

通过中国近地面风速区划可以深入了解风速分布规律,有助于研究风速的变化机制。利用1980-2009年中国608个测站的日平均风速资料,经过旋转经验正交函数分解法(REOF)得到10个分区,各分区范围和地形有一定的关系。风速频率曲线变化表明,中国北部地区(第3、4区)风速偏大,中部地区(第2、10区)风速普遍较小;对比分析了区域有效风速日数频率和风能分布。根据谐波方法得到各分区风速的年变化特征,大部分区域呈单峰单谷型或双峰双谷型,高值区主要出现在春季,并分析了形成上述特点的可能天气学成因。风速线性倾向估计结果表明,中国大部分地区风速呈减小趋势,第1、4、5区平均风速递减率在-0.028~-0.023 m·s-1·a-1之间,但是,中部地区(第2区、第6区西部、第10区)年平均风速出现递增。通过Mann-Kendan法和小波分析方法检测表明,第2、3、5区突变点出现在2000年附近,第1、4、6区突变点出现在20世纪90年代初。环流特征量指数和风速同期相关性分析,揭示了北极涡和副热带高压对风速的影响。     

Annual survey of water vapor behavior from the OMEGA mapping spectrometer onboard Mars Express

We present here the annual behavior of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, as observed by the OMEGA spectrometer on board Mars Express during its first martian year. We consider all the different features of the cycle of water vapor: temporal evolution, both at a seasonal and at a diurnal scale; longitudinal distribution; and the vertical profile, through the variations in the saturation height. We put our results into the context of the current knowledge on the water cycle through a systematic comparison with the already published datasets. The seasonal behavior is in very good agreement with past and simultaneous retrievals both qualitatively and quantitatively, within the uncertainties. The average water vapor abundance during the year is ∼10 pr. μm, with an imbalance between northern and southern hemisphere, in favor of the first. The maximum of activity, up to 60 pr. μm, occurs at high northern latitudes during local summer and shows the dominance of the northern polar cap within the driving processes of the water cycle. A corresponding maximum at southern polar latitudes during the local summer is present, but less structured and intense. It reaches ∼25 pr. μm at its peak. Global circulation has some influence in shaping the water cycle, but it is less prominent than the results from previous instruments suggest. No significant correlation between water vapor column density and local hour is detected. We can constrain the amount of water vapor exchanged between the surface and the atmosphere to few pr. μm. This is consistent with recent results by OMEGA and PFS-LW. The action of the regolith layer on the global water cycle seems to be minor, but it cannot be precisely constrained. The distribution of water vapor on the planet, after removing the topography, shows the already known two-maxima system, over Tharsis and Arabia Terra. However, the Arabia Terra increase is quite fragmented compared with previous observations. A deep zone of minimum separates the two regions. The saturation height of water vapor is mainly governed by the variations of insolation during the year. It is confined within 5-15 km from the surface at aphelion, while in the perihelion season it stretches up to 55 km of altitude.     

Evaporation effects on the formation of martian gullies

In order to investigate the formation of martian gullies and the stability of fluids on Mars, we examined about 120 gully images. Twelve HiRISE images contained a sufficient number of Transverse Aeolian Ridges (TARs) associated with the gullies to make the following measurements: overall gully length, length of the alcove, channel and apron, and we also measured the frequency of nearby TARs. Six of the 12 images examined showed a statistically significant negative correlation between overall gully length (alcove, channel and apron length) and TAR frequency. Previous experimental work from our group has shown that at temperatures below ∼200 K, evaporation rate increases by about an order of magnitude as wind speed increases from 0 to ∼15 m/s. Thus the negative correlations we observe between gully length and dune frequency can be explained by formation at temperatures below ∼200 K where wind speed/evaporation is a factor governing gully length. In these cases evaporation of the fluid carving the gully was a constraint on their dimensions. Cases where there is no correlation between gully length and TAR frequency, can be explained by formation at temperatures >200 K. The temperatures are consistent with Global Circulation Model and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data for these latitudes. The temperatures suggested by these trends are consistent with the fluid responsible for gully formation being a strong brine, such as Fe₂(SO₄)₃ which has a eutectic temperature of ∼200 K. We also find that formation timescales for gullies are 10⁵-10⁶ years.     

THEMIS-VIS observations of clouds in the martian mesosphere: Altitudes, wind speeds, and decameter-scale morphology

We present measurements of the altitude and eastward velocity component of mesospheric clouds in 35 imaging sequences acquired by the Mars Odyssey (ODY) spacecraft’s Thermal Emission Imaging System visible imaging subsystem (THEMIS-VIS). We measure altitude by using the parallax drift of high-altitude features, and the velocity by exploiting the time delay in the THEMIS-VIS imaging sequence.We observe two distinct classes of mesospheric clouds: equatorial mesospheric clouds observed between 0° and 180° L_s; and northern mid-latitude clouds observed only in twilight in the 200–300° L_s period. The equatorial mesospheric clouds are quite rare in the THEMIS-VIS data set. We have detected them in only five imaging sequences, out of a total of 2048 multi-band equatorial imaging sequences. All five fall between 20° south and 0° latitude, and between 260° and 295° east longitude. The mid-latitude mesospheric clouds are apparently much more common; for these we find 30 examples out of 210 northern winter mid-latitude twilight imaging sequences. The observed mid-latitude clouds are found, with only one exception, in the Acidalia region, but this is quite likely an artifact of the pattern of THEMIS-VIS image targeting. Comparing our THEMIS-VIS images with daily global maps generated from Mars Orbiter Camera Wide Angle (MOC-WA) images, we find some evidence that some mid-latitude mesospheric cloud features correspond to cloud features commonly observed by MOC-WA. Comparing the velocity of our mesospheric clouds with a GCM, we find good agreement for the northern mid-latitude class, but also find that the GCM fails to match the strong easterly winds measured for the equatorial clouds.Applying a simple radiative transfer model to some of the equatorial mesospheric clouds, we find good model fits in two different imaging sequences. By using the observed radiance contrast between cloud and cloud-free regions at multiple visible-band wavelengths, these fits simultaneously constrain the optical depths and particles sizes of the clouds. The particle sizes are constrained primarily by the relative contrasts at the available wavelengths, and are found to be quite different in the two imaging sequences: r_eff = 0.1 μm and r_eff = 1.5 μm. The optical depths (constrained by the absolute contrasts) are substantial: 0.22 and 0.5, respectively. These optical depths imply a mass density that greatly exceeds the saturated mass density of water vapor at mesospheric temperatures, and so the aerosol particles are probably composed mainly of CO₂ ice. Our simple radiative transfer model is not applicable to twilight, when the mid-latitude mesospheric clouds were observed, and so we leave the properties of these clouds as a question for further work.     

On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。     

东亚区域能量和水分循环对我国极端气候影响研究的一些初步进展

介绍了2009年项目"全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响"的主要研究目标和内容,着重叙述了项目实施以来的主要科研进展,包括西北敦煌和临泽区陆气交换加强观测试验、我国极端气候的变化分析和模拟研究以及气候预测新方法和新系统的研制等方面.最后概要介绍了项目未来几年的主要研究工作计划.