Building deliberative public-private partnerships for waste management in Asia

Public-private partnerships in environmental policy should not simply be viewed in instrumental terms as means of providing environmental infrastructure and services, but also as sites where norms of environmental concern and political accountability are formulated and replicated. Deliberative public-private partnerships--or partnerships that allow greater public participation in the formulation of these norms--may therefore become an important new form of local environmental governance and help make partnerships more relevant to local environmental needs. This paper examines case studies of public-private partnerships in waste-to-energy projects in the Philippines and India to identify how principles of institutional design may enhance the deliberative nature of public-private partnerships in environmental policy. The paper argues that current approaches to deliberative, or cooperative environmental governance concerning public-private partnerships need to acknowledge insights from network theory concerning the communication of environmental and political norms before they can be successfully transferred to developing countries.     

Environmental significance of C/C and O/O ratios of modern land-snail shells from the southern great plains of North America

¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios of aragonite shells of modern land snails from the southern Great Plains of North America were measured for samples from twelve localities in a narrow east-west corridor that extended from the Flint Hills in North Central Oklahoma to the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Northern New Mexico, USA. Across the study area, shell δ¹⁸O values (PDB scale) ranged from −4.1‰ to 1.2‰, while δ¹³C values ranged from −13.2‰ to 0.0‰. δ¹⁸O values of the shell aragonite were predicted with a published, steady state, evaporative flux balance model. The predicted values differed (with one exception) by less than 1‰ from locality averages of measured δ¹⁸O values. This similarity suggests that relative humidity at the time of snail activity is an important control on the δ¹⁸O values of the aragonite and emphasizes the seasonal nature of the climatic information preserved in the shells. Correlated δ¹³C values of coexisting Vallonia and Gastrocopta suggest similar feeding habits and imply that these genera can provide information on variations in southern Great Plains plant ecology. Although there is considerable scatter, multispecies, transect average δ¹³C values of the modern aragonite shells are related to variations in the type of photosynthesis (i.e., C₃, C₄) in the local plant communities. The results of this study emphasize the desirability of obtaining isotope ratios representing averages of many shells in a locale to reduce possible biases associated with local variations among individuals, species, etc., and thus better represent the “neighborhood” scale temporal and/or spatial environmental variations of interest in studies of modern and ancient systems.     

New evidence for an extended occupation of the Provo shoreline and implications for regional climate change, Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah, USA

Lake Bonneville was a climatically sensitive, closed-basin lake that occupied the eastern Great Basin during the late Pleistocene. Ongoing efforts to refine the record of lake level history are important for deciphering climate conditions in the Bonneville basin and for facilitating correlations with regional and global records of climate change. Radiocarbon data from this and other studies suggest that the lake oscillated at or near the Provo level much longer than depicted by current models of lake level change. Radiocarbon data also suggest that the lake dropped from threshold control much more rapidly than previously supposed. These revisions to the Lake Bonneville hydrograph, coupled with independent evidence of climate change from vegetation and glacial records, have important implications for conditions in the Bonneville basin and during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.     

IPCC第六次气候变化评估中的气候约束预估方法

得益于第五次评估报告（AR5）以来约束预估研究的迅速发展,观测约束成为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组（WGI）第六次评估报告（AR6）提升对未来预估约束的证据链中的重要一环。IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告首次利用包括根据历史模拟温度升高幅度得到的观测约束、多模式预估以及第六次评估报告中更新的气候敏感度在内的多条证据链来约束全球地表温度未来变化的预估,减小了多模式预估的不确定性。文中回顾并介绍了IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告中涉及的几种主要观测约束方法（多模式加权方法、基于归因结论的约束方法（ASK方法）、萌现约束方法）及其应用情况。在IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告以及很多针对不同区域不同变量的预估研究中,观测约束方法均显示出了订正模式误差、改善模式预估的潜力。相比而言,目前中国在观测约束预估方面的研究还不多,亟待加强观测约束方法研究以及在中国区域气候变化预估中的应用,为中国应对气候变化的政策制定和适应规划提供更丰富、不确定性更小的未来气候信息。      

辽宁发展燕麦生产的气候适应性研究

根据1960—2000年河北省张北县和辽宁省的气象资料,计算并比较了两地的气候资源条件,参考燕麦的生物学特性,认为辽宁地区的气候条件完全可以满足燕麦的种植。在此基础上,选取了积温、降水等6个农业生长气候指标,利用谱系聚类分析法,对辽宁21个气象站点进行了聚类分析,并结合地理与经济等因素,对其燕麦生产进行了气候区划。结果表明,辽宁的大部分地区适宜燕麦的栽培生产。     

黑河流域水环境演变及其驱动机制研究进展

基于近几十年来诸多学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域水环境演变诸方面研究成果,综述了上游山区成水环境、中游绿洲用水环境和下游荒漠天然绿洲水成环境在不同时间尺度上的演变过程及其驱动机制。通过对各种古环境代用指标的对比研究表明：在大尺度上,流域上下游表现出阶段性的一致性水环境演变趋势;在小尺度上,则表现水环境演变的时空异质性。驱动机制方面,在空间上,流域上、中、下游水环境演变的气候变化和人类活动影响驱动作用各有侧重;在时间上,表现为不同尺度上气候变化与流域人类活动耦合作用的驱动机制。     

未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。     

海口永庄气候平均差值的订正分析

根据海口、永庄两站2006年1~12月对比观测气象资料进行分析,得出海拔高度和周围环境不同是形成海口与永庄两地气候差异的主要原因。利用两地气候平均差值与有关气象要素存在很好相关关系,应用回归法建立气候平均差值的订正方程。经检验,方程回归效果较好,因此,可利用气候平均差值订正方程将永庄站的气象资料订正到搬迁前等长序列,并求取各气候要素的各个时段历史平均值。     

碳市场与电力市场机制影响下发电机组成本分析与竞争力研究

碳市场和电力市场将共同发挥市场对资源优化配置的决定性作用,对共同市场主体发电企业带来经营和发展挑战.在考虑碳成本的基础上,采用发电机组经济性影响模型,定量分析了碳市场不同发展阶段对发电机组发电成本的影响,定量评价不同能源结构投资收益经济性,以及对集中竞价市场出清顺序的影响.结果表明,随着有偿配额比例和碳价增加,碳成本占...     

Modeling of climate change impacts on Lake Burullus,coastal lagoon (Egypt)

Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.