极值理论在福建沿海地区地震预测中的研究与应用

利用陈培善等人对极值理论修改后的极值分布函数模型对1971年1月-2012年9月福建沿海地区的地震资料进行统计分析,单位时间内最小与最大地震的确定分别考虑相关区域内台网的监控能力以及删除余震后的实际情况.根据修正后的极值理论统计计算出该地区地震的复发周期及截至2015年12月可能发生的相应地震的次数与发震概率,并对有关结果进行映震能力分析,为今后福建沿海地区地震趋势分析提供可遵循的理论依据.     

区域尺度生态系统水分利用效率的时空变异特征研究进展

水分利用效率(WUE)是深入理解生态系统水—碳循环耦合关系的重要指标,揭示区域尺度生态系统WUE的时空变异特征及其控制机制,有助于评价和预测全球变化对生态系统水、碳过程的影响。综述了目前区域尺度生态系统WUE的研究进展,结果表明:①目前关于生态系统WUE影响因素的研究多基于站点尺度,区域尺度的研究相对缺乏;②关于不同生态系统WUE的大小及时间变化特征已有较明确的结论,而基于生态模型方法获取的生态系统WUE的空间分布格局尚需进一步验证;③已有研究表明气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)均会显著改变生态系统生产力或蒸散,然而,较少研究关注两者导致的生态系统WUE的改变。因此,区域尺度生态系统WUE时空变异的控制因子及其对气候变化和LUCC的响应可能是未来全球变化研究的热点问题之一。     

都江堰中兴镇高位滑坡泥石流灾害致灾成因与发展趋势

2013年7月10日上午10时左右,四川省都江堰市中兴镇三溪村五里坡突发高位滑坡泥石流灾害,造成11户居民房屋被毁,52人遇难,109人失踪。为研究五里坡滑坡泥石流灾害的致灾成因与发展趋势,在实地调查的基础上,从地质灾害形成的主客观因素方面对致灾成因进行了分析,并结合其现状特征,对其发展趋势进行了研究。研究认为,高位山谷地形、斜向斜坡结构易滑、突降暴雨、灾害隐蔽性强以及村民防灾避灾意识不强等因素是五里坡滑坡泥石流灾害的主要致灾因素;山体整体稳定性差,暴雨频繁,再次发生滑坡泥石流灾害的可能性较大,且在本次致灾范围的基础上威胁范围有进一步扩大的可能,建议威胁范围区内尚未搬离的住户尽快搬迁,并加强监测,开展综合工程治理。     

Temporal and spatial variability of sediment flux into the sea from the three largest rivers in China

The Yellow, Yangtze and Pearl Rivers supply over 90% of the sediment flux from China to the western Pacific Ocean. Trends and abrupt changes in the water discharge and sediment load of the three rivers were examined and compared based on data updated to the year 2011 at the seasonal and annual scales. The total water discharge from the three rivers shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend with a rate of 0.62 × 10⁹ m³/a, and the total sediment load shows a statistically significant decreasing trend at a rate of 31.12 × 10⁶ t/a from the 1950s to 2011. The water discharge of the entire Yellow River and the upstream portion of the Yangtze River shows significant decreasing trends, and that of the mid-lower stream of Yangtze River and the entire Pearl River shows insignificant trends. The sediment loads in the three river basins all show significant decreasing trends at the annual and seasonal scales, and a dramatic decrease in the 2000s resulted in a more obvious decreasing trend over the studied period. From the 1950s to the 2000s, the contribution of sediment flux from the Yellow River to the ocean decreased from 71.8% to 37.0%, and the contributions of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers increased from 24.2% and 4.0% to 53.0% and 10.0%, respectively. Inter-annual variations in water discharge and sediment load were affected by climate oscillations, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the long-term decreasing trend in sediment load was primarily caused by human activities. Dam constructions and soil conservation projects were the major causes of sediment reduction. From the 1970s to the 2000s, the decrease in total sediment load from the three rivers caused by climate change and human activities was 2.24 × 10⁸ t/a (23.0%) and 7.5 × 10⁸ t/a (77.0%), respectively. In the coming decades, the sediment flux from the three rivers into the sea will decrease further with intensifying human activities, resulting in many challenges for the management of river basins and river deltas.     

On quantifying post-classification subpixel landcover changes

The post-classifications change matrix is well defined for hard classifications. However, for soft classifications, where partial membership of pixels to landcover classes is allowed, there is no single definition for such a matrix. In this paper, we argue that a natural definition of the post-classification change matrix for subpixel classifications can be done in terms of a constrained optimization problem, according to which the change matrix should allow an optimal prediction of the subpixel landcover fractions at the latest date from those of the earliest date. We first show that the traditional change matrix for crisp classification corresponds to the optimal solution of the unconstrained problem. Then, the formulation is generalized for subpixel classifications by incorporating certain constraints pertaining to desirable properties of a change matrix, thus resulting in a constrained least square (CLS) change matrix. In addition, based on intuitive criteria, a generalized product (GPROD) was parameterized in terms of an exponent parameter and used to derive another change matrix. It was shown that when the exponent parameter of the GPROD operator tends to infinity, one of the most commonly used methods for map comparison from subpixel fractions, namely the MINPROD composite operator, results. The three matrices (CLS, GPROD and MINPROD) were tested on both simulated and real subpixel changes derived from QuickBird and Landsat TM images. Results indicated that, for small exponent values (0–0.5), the GPROD matrix yielded the lowest errors of estimated landcover changes, whereas the MINPROD generally yielded the highest errors for the same estimations.     

通辽市R_(5d)的气候特征分析

文章利用通辽市境内科尔沁区、开鲁、鲁北、保康、甘旗卡、库伦、大沁他拉七个测站53a(1959—2011年)逐日降水量资料进行通辽市连续5d最大降水量(R5d)的气候特征分析,结果表明,通辽市R5d为减小趋势,在0.05显著性水平以上,倾向率为-4.56mm/10a,各站R5d均为减少趋势,其中库伦、开鲁、科尔沁区的倾向率为-7.0^-5.64mm/10a,减少较为明显;R/S分析结果为,全市及各站均符合赫斯特现象,H指数>0.5,未来将持续减少,其中鲁北、科尔沁区、开鲁的H指数较大,维持减少趋势将较为强劲;M-K突变检测发现,R5d在1965年发生突变,此后UF下降趋势超过了0.001极显著水平。     

莱州湾南岸滨海湿地生物多样性及生态地质环境变化

莱州湾南岸滨海湿地作为环渤海滨海湿地的一部分,具有海洋与河口交互性、海陆过渡性和生态脆弱性等特点,湿地面积广阔、资源丰富,是东北亚环西太平洋鸟类迁徙的重要“中转站”及越冬、栖息和繁殖地。湿地总面积为1150．079km^2,湿地维管束植物区系包括维管束植物53科144属217种。近年来,在对滨海湿地的开发中,虾池、盐田等人工湿地面积不断扩大,造成自然湿地面积减小、植被退化、地貌和水文条件改变、生物多样性下降,改变了原始的滨海湿地自然景观,破坏了珍稀鸟类的生存环境。     

干旱区内陆河流域不同特征居民对气候变化及冰冻圈变化的感知差异分析——以乌鲁木齐河流域为例

选择冰川典型发育的乌鲁木齐河流域,基于面向普通民众的657份调查问卷,将气候变化与冰冻圈变化有机的结合起来,尝试分析不同特征民众对二者变化的感知差异状况,为因地制宜制定适应性措施以及普通民众有计划、有目的地调整生产和生活策略,适应未来环境变化等提供公众参与的社会依据.调查结果显示,乌鲁木齐河流域不同特征居民之间有着复杂...     

全新世以来山东半岛东北部海面变化的河流地貌响应

对全新世以来山东半岛东北部沿岸的相对海面（基准面）变化,不同河流有截然不同的地貌响应方式。大沽夹河型河流的下游河谷中有分别与相对海面升降对应的溯源堆积期和溯源侵蚀期,但不同规模的河流仍有差异。黄水河型河流河谷未因基准面升降而发生侵蚀或堆积,河谷仅起了输沙通道的作用。此外,大沽夹河型河流的中下游河型在相对海面上升或下降时,还可能发生相应地网状化或曲流化。     

中俄原油管道工程(漠河大庆段)沿线气温、地表和浅层地温年际变化特征

分析了中俄原油管道(漠河-大庆段)沿线自建站至2005年的月平均气温和地温观测资料,并通过插补建立了1961—2005年漠-大沿线各站各季及年平均温度资料完整序列.结果表明:各站年平均气温具有很好的相关性,近40多年年平均气温在20世纪60年代最低,70年代略有回升,80年代后气温逐渐升高,进入90年代后期升温有所减缓;沿线各站的年平均地表温度也是20世纪70年代最低,70年代进入80年代升温最明显.气温升温最显著的是冬、春季,升温率分别达到0.71℃.(10a)-1和0.48℃.(10a)-1,夏季升温率只有0.27℃.(10a)-1.年平均气温和地表温度的升温率分别为0.45℃.(10a)-1和0.27℃.(10a)-1,气温的升温比地表温度要快.年平均地表温度要比年平均气温高,深层地温的变化趋势与气温基本一致,在位相上有1～2a的差异.