Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

高原大地形及海洋热力强迫对东亚及北半球环流和气候变化影响的观测研究

本文总结了“青藏高原大地形及西太平洋暖池势力强迫对东亚及全球气候变化的影响”专题五年来的主要研究工作。其中包括青世故高原东部大气热源的时间演变特征,夏半年高原热源异常对我国降水和北半球环流的影响;西沙海温变化特征及其与我南方降水的关系,北太平洋海温主因子特征及其与华南前汛期降水的变化。     

连续小波变换在新疆地震活动周期分析中的应用

利用连续小波变换分析和研究了 1 970年 1月— 2 0 0 1年 1 2月新疆地区 30年来的地震活动情况。结果表明 ,新疆地震活动存在比较稳定的 1 0年左右活动周期 ,并存在 5年和 1 7年左右的不稳定的准活动周期 ,也就是说新疆地区地震活动既存在比较稳定的优势周期 ,也存在一定的时变性。根据 MS≥ 4.7地震时间序列的连续小波变换结果可推测 ,2 0 0 2— 2 0 0 5年新疆地区地震活动相对偏弱 ,中、强地震的发生次数偏少 ,有可能发生 5级或 6级地震 ,而到 2 0 0 6— 2 0 0 7年新疆有可能再次发生 7级左右的大地震。     

芦山地震前后龙门山断裂带西南段地应力状态对比分析

2013年4月20日芦山Ms7.0级地震后,为研究龙门山断裂带西南段震后的地应力状态,应用水压致裂法和压磁应力解除法在该区开展了2个钻孔的原地应力测量工作。测量结果显示硗碛测点在128～188m深度范围内最小水平主应力的量值为10.47～18.47 MPa,最大水平主应力的量值为19.60～25.83 MPa,方向为N63°～85°W;天全测点在114～142m深度范围内最小水平主应力的量值为5.20～7.73 MPa,最大水平主应力的量值为8.21～9.31 MPa,方向为N59°W。两个测点水平主应力与垂直应力的关系均为σ_Hσ_hσ_v,其中硗碛测点最大、最小水平主应力与垂直应力比值的平均值分别为5.27和3.01,天全测点最大、最小水平主应力与垂直应力比值的平均值分别为2.60和1.76,表明有利于逆断层活动。通过比较该地区芦山地震前后实测地应力状态,发现芦山地震后,龙门山断裂带西南段的北段(即邛崃大邑西-宝兴北-汶川南一带)和南段(即天全-荥经-泸定-康定一带)应力积累量增加。相同深度范围内,北段硗碛测点震后的应力大小要比地震前有明显的提高,这也与硗碛测点地应力监测结果一致。实测应力方向与震前基本一致,都为NW-NWW。基于实测地应力资料,根据库伦破裂准则和Byerlee定律分析,位于北段的硗碛测点震前部分压裂段的最大水平主应力处于使断层滑动临界值的上下限之间,而地震后最大水平主应力则均已超过断层滑动临界值的上限。位于南段的飞仙关测点震前最大水平主应力均未达到断层滑动临界值的下限,而地震后天全测点的最大水平主应力则均处于使断层滑动临界值的上下限之间。采用最大剪应力(σ_1-σ_3)/2与平均应力(σ_1+σ_3)/2的比值μ_m(断层摩擦)参数评估研究区地应力的积累水平和地震危险性。震前硗碛测点μ_m的量值为0.16～0.72,平均为0.50,震后为0.71～0.81,平均为0.77。震前飞仙关测点μ_m的量值为0.31～0.35,平均值为0.32,震后天全测点μ_m的量值为0.53～0.57,平均值为0.55,两个研究区的μ_m的量值均变大。分析认为芦山地震后龙门山断裂带西南段的北段和南段的应力积累量增加,都有发生断层滑动的可能性,尤其是北段。     

低渗透油藏CO2驱过程中含水率变化规律

通过国内外多个油田水驱后实施CO2驱的矿场实例研究,发现注入CO2后很多油井存在含水率下降的现象;这种现象发生在CO2驱的整个开发阶段,包括注气初期阶段CO2未到达生产井、生产井见气阶段以及高气油比阶段。重点讨论了生产井见气前的开发规律,在该阶段油藏内以油水两相渗流为主,不受三相渗流作用的影响。通过现场动态反应并结合室内细管和长岩心实验,揭示了CO2与油、水2种介质的相互作用,得到了两个结论:第一是始于低含水阶段的CO2驱过程中气体穿越地层水驱替地层油到达生产井;第二是始于高含水阶段的CO2驱替规律在不同级别低渗透岩心中的差异非常明显:对于特低渗岩心,CO2突破前的采出程度占CO2驱总采出程度的73.27%,CO2突破后的采出程度占26.73%,对于一般低渗岩心,CO2突破前的采出程度仅占CO2驱总采出程度的16.72%,而CO2突破后的采出程度占到了CO2驱总采出程度的83.28%。     

地下流体长趋势异常变化与强震预测的初步研究

以华北、川滇、青藏东北缘、新疆及邻区等重点地区的地下流体观测点为基础,选择水位、水氡、水温、汞等长期观测资料,进行了历史强震震例的地下流体长趋势资料处理、干扰排除和异常提取的方法和技术的研究,初步建立了分区的强地震地下流体长期预测指标并探讨其异同。     

深圳市土地利用变化机制分析

利用１９８０、１９８８、１９９４年的遥感影像,通过应用最大似然法和概率松弛法对深圳市土地利用进行了测量。在此基础上,运用分类结果求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵,据此分析了深圳上１５年来土地利用变化的空间过程。结果表明：深圳市土地利用纺要表现为原有农田、果园用地显著减少,城镇用地沿海岸和主要公路干线迅速增加。这一土地利用变化的驱动力主要是深圳经济特区的开放政策、城镇人口迅速增长、外资大量涌入和以房     

基于CCI和MODIS数据的淮河流域地表土壤湿度降尺度方法研究

土壤湿度是控制陆地和大气间水热能量交换的一个关键参数,同时也是陆面生态系统水循环的重要组成部分。本文选用25 km分辨率的CCI(Climate Change Initiative)土壤湿度产品数据,并结合1 km分辨率的MODIS数据,构建微波土壤湿度产品数据降尺度回归算法,获取淮河流域1 km空间分辨率的土壤湿度数据。降尺度后所获取淮河流域1 km空间分辨率的土壤湿度数据总体上提高了25 km空间分辨率的CCI土壤湿度产品数据的精度.     

The dynamics of natural pipe hydrological behaviour in blanket peat

Natural soil pipes are found in peatlands, but little is known about their hydrological role. This paper presents the most complete set of pipe discharge data to date from a deep blanket peatland in Northern England. In a 17.4‐ha catchment, we identified 24 perennially flowing and 60 ephemerally flowing pipe outlets. Eight pipe outlets along with the catchment outlet were continuously gauged over an 18‐month period. The pipes in the catchment were estimated to produce around 13.7% of annual streamflow, with individual pipes often producing large peak flows (maximum peak of 3.8 l s^?1). Almost all pipes, whether ephemerally or perennially flowing, shallow or deep (outlets > 1 m below the peat surface), showed increased discharge within a mean of 3 h after rainfall commencement and were dominated by stormflow, indicating good connectivity between the peatland surface and the pipes. However, almost all pipes had a longer period between the hydrograph peak and the return to base flow compared with the stream (mean of 23.9 h for pipes, 19.7 h for stream). As a result, the proportion of streamflow produced by the pipes at any given time increased at low flows and formed the most important component of stream discharge for the lowest 10% of flows. Thus, a small number of perennially flowing pipes became more important to the stream system under low‐flow conditions and probably received water via matrix flow during periods between storms. Given the importance of pipes to streamflow in blanket peatlands, further research is required into their wider role in influencing stream water chemistry, water temperature and fluvial carbon fluxes, as well as their role in altering local hydrochemical cycling within the peat mass itself. Enhanced piping within peatlands caused by environmental change may lead to changes in the streamflow regime with larger low flows and more prolonged drainage of the peat. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于规则的位置地图情境推理构建与实例分析

情境在移动位置服务领域起到融合多源时空数据、模拟地图使用情形及获取用户空间需求的作用。根据作者早期建立的位置地图情境模型,本文基于活动理论构建了位置地图情境三层推理规则,重点描述其基本原理与方法;通过形式化表达将情境推理的结果与位置地图表达联系起来,形成三层推理规则的解析与运行流程;以用户去机场登机为例,假设2种不同情形,验证5种情境事例。实验结果表明,本文的情境推理方法简洁、可操作性强,为进一步研究智能化地图服务提供参考和借鉴。