A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S_f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub‐reach is obtained from discharge‐area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub‐reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro‐fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub‐reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM outputs are comparable to those of the HEC‐RAS model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行政赔偿因果关系的认定规则初探

行政赔偿因果关系的认定,直接关系到国家赔偿法效能的发挥.现实中,行政赔偿之所以陷入困境,其中一个重要原因是行政赔偿因果关系的认定缺乏标准.应从行政管理的规律出发,把握行政法律关系的特征,着眼于行政法未来的发展趋势,从充分发挥行政赔偿的内在功能入手,兼顾国家现实的赔偿能力及当前的法制人文环境,从理论上建立可供司法实践操作的行政赔偿因果关系认定规则.     

地图数据图层级批量综合功能的设计与研制

目前,已有地图综合系统使用过程中需要专业人员深度参与,耗时耗力、自动化程度较低。针对这一问题,从软件工程的角度探讨了图层级批量综合功能的研制。以1∶5万居民地图层数据的综合处理为例,分别从建筑物目标的剖分、特征参量定义与计算、综合操作决策与实施、综合控制规则建立与表达4个方面进行分析,尝试构建"特征诊断→行为决策→操作执行"的完整技术链条。结合样例数据对提出的技术设想进行可行性验证,并对后续工作进行展望。     

地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。     

积雪底部温度(BTS)方法在冻土分布调查和模型研究中的应用:研究进展

多年冻土的调查方法很多,如坑探、物探、遥感等,但相对于积雪底部温度(BTS)测量方法来说,这些方法都比较费时、费力、费钱.目前,BTS已经被成功应用于阿尔卑斯山等地多年冻土的调查研究,不过在国内的应用却是个空白.引入BTS方法,希望能为我国多年冻土的研究开辟一条新路.     

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Páramo Ecosystem in the Northern Ecuadorian Andes 1988-2007

Páramo is a term used to describe tropical alpine vegetation between the continuous timberline and the snow line in the Northern Andes. Páramo environments provide important species habitat and ecosystem services. Changes in spatial extent of the páramo ecosystem at Pambamarca in the Central Cordillera of the northern Ecuadorian Andes were analysed using multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite data. The region suffered a loss of 1826.6 ha or 20% of the total area at a rate of 100 ha/annum during 1988-2007 period. It is found that permanent páramo cover decreased from 8350 ha in 1988 to 5864 ha in 2007 at a fairly constant rate(R2=0.94). This loss is attributed to expansion of commercial agriculture and floriculture in the valleys coupled with increased population pressure. Land at higher elevations has been cleared for small scale agriculture. Loss of the páramo ecosystem will exert a number of negative impacts on ecosystem services and livelihoods of the local population at Pambamarca.     

Socio-economic drivers of deforestation in Roghani Valley,Hindu-Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan

Deforestation and associated ecological disturbances are the issues of global concern.Researchers have investigated a number of driving forces which accelerate the rate of deforestation at local and regional levels.These include poverty,population growth,market demand and prices,political instability,agricultural expansion and changes in property right and ownership regimes.This paper seeks to explore the impacts of population growth,changing tenure system and other socioeconomic factors on the forest cover of Roghani Valley,located in Hindu Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan.The present study is mainly based on information collected through participatory observation,selfadministered interviews and questionnaire survey.Geographical Information System（GIS） database is also used for mapping and quantification.The results reveal that in the past three to four decades the study area has been subjected to severe deforestation and about half of the forest area has been converted into barren land.Thus,the area under natural forests decreased from 2099 to 1444 hectares in four decades.This large-scale deforestation is attributed to both proximate and under lying causes particularly traditional land tenure system and demographic development.Consequently,forest resources have been degraded and a number of plant species have disappeared from the forests of the study area while several others are in the process of disappearance.     

Mapping and monitoring of land use changes in post-Soviet western Ukraine using remote sensing data

While agriculture is expanded and intensified in many parts of the world, decreases in land use intensity and farmland abandonment take place in other parts. Eastern Europe experienced widespread changes of agricultural land use after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, rates and patterns of these changes are still not well understood. Our objective was to map and analyze changes of land management regimes, including large-scale cropland, small-scale cropland, and abandoned farmland. Monitoring land management regimes is a promising avenue to better understand the temporal and spatial patterns of land use intensity changes. For mapping and change detection, we used an object-based approach with Superpixel segmentation for delineating objects and a Random Forest classifier. We applied this approach to Landsat and ERS SAR data for the years 1986, 1993, 1999, 2006, and 2010 to estimate change trajectories for this time period in western Ukraine. The first period during the 1990s was characterized by post-socialist transition processes including farmland abandonment and substantial subsistence agriculture. Later on, recultivation processes and the recurrence of industrial, large-scale farming were triggered by global food prices that have led to a growing interest in this region.     

基于关联规则的故障诊断方法研究

提高自动气象站设备运行能力和观测数据的质量状况成为影响气象预测预报服务的准确性和气象事业发展的关键。然而中国现在业务运行的自动气象站设备并没有内置的故障检测装置,也没有完善的自检系统。但是气象要素(温湿压风雨)的变化往往是相互关联的,为了提高自动气象站数据质量,及时有效地判断设备故障。从大量观测数据试验结果进行研究,提出一种基于关联规则的故障综合诊断方法。通过使用Apriori挖掘算法,得到各气象要素及其变化量之间的强关联规则,通过实际观测数据验证2012年7月26日08时江西南昌站湿度传感器发生故障。     

Understanding climate coping as a basis for strategic climate change adaptation – The case of Queenstown-Lake Wanaka,New Zealand

Weather conditions that influence natural resource-based tourist destinations are likely to be affected by climate change, but our understanding of how businesses and destinations manage for present and future conditions is limited. In this study we report on the relationships between weather and tourism activities in the Queenstown-Lake Wanaka region, South Island, New Zealand. Key stakeholder interviews and a workshop form the empirical basis of this paper. Coping range application ideas derived from ecological management literature are used to develop a framework to understand and inform thinking and strategies around how tourism businesses and destinations are currently responding to the weather and perhaps could in future respond to climate change. Results show that within a destination individual businesses have widely varying relationships with the weather, with each type of activity operating within its own coping range to particular environmental gradients, for example temperature. Coping, which can be observed outside the ‘ideal’ range of a particular environmental gradient, requires business adjustments so as to cope with increasingly marginal conditions, up to a Critical Stop Point – the ultimate threshold. The data suggest that increased need for adjustments impacts on business viability, and more planned adaptation measures would be necessary to increase viability under increasingly detrimental climatic conditions. Discussion at a destination level workshop indicates that at and beyond thresholds, keystone industry and destination level strategic adaptation planning is required to ensure the viability of the destination as a whole.