应用水化多层次跟踪预报方法研究闽台地区地震的映震特征

本文针对1990年至1999年福建及沿海中强以上地震和台湾7.0级以上地震,利用“八五”攻关的水化多层次跟踪预报方法,研究福建水氡台网观测资料的异常频次变化特征和演化过程,总结其相应的映震特征。     

活动断层的基本理论与常用研究方法

活动断层是目前工程地震和地震地质领域研究的热点之一,它对于地震的预防和预报都具有极为重要的意义。在不同的专家和学者的研究成果的基础上,结合作者近几年来的学习和研究体会,认为活动断层往往是孕震场所,但并非全部,大地震往往只发生在地震空区的位置。总结了活动断层和地震活动的几条经验性规律。     

一种旋转塑性势面模型及非关联塑性流动法则

为了较好地描述软土塑性应变发展规律,提出了一种改进的塑性流动模型。该模型采用了与屈服函数形式相同,但具有一定倾角γ的塑性势函数。土体在变形过程中,塑性流动方向会依赖于塑性势面的旋转而变化,直至达到破坏状态。通过对常规三轴试验结果的分析可以发现:在剪切过程中,塑性势面旋转角的初值γ₀与终值γ_d较为稳定,不受围压变化影响。在此试验观察基础上,引入了归一化的旋转角参数γ’以及描述土体应力状态的参数ξ,在采用蛋形势函数的情况下二者具有良好的分段线性关系。利用该关系,建立了改进的塑性流动法则,只需要2个额外的模型参数。对所提出的塑性流动模型进行了验证,计算结果表明该模型能较好地反映塑性应变的变化趋势。     

中国北方磷矿矿床类型及成矿规律

通过对中国北方内生磷灰石、变质及沉积型磷矿成矿特征及典型矿床的研究,建立了各种类型磷矿床的成矿模式和找矿模型、确定了各类型矿床的时空分布规律以及矿床的共生规律,为开展磷矿的找矿工作具有重要参考价值。     

试论综合钻探技术

对综合钻探技术的内涵、原则、实质、特点、软硬件，目的及其发展途径，进行了探讨。     

Institutional power-geometries: enduring and shifting work relations in cleansing depots

Institutions are objects of study that raise questions about the relationship between continuity and change. Employment is changing and for this reason it presents an opportunity to explore how it is that paid work might be thought of as an institutional ‘space’ that is made up of enduring and shifting power relations. This paper views institutions through a lens of ‘power-geometries’, that is, as complex webs of relations of domination and subordination (Massey, D., 1992. New Left Review 196, 65–84). The paper illustrates these power-geometries by exploring employment in local authority cleansing depots in South East England. I concentrate on how the inequity of employment relations enables the institutionalisation of work practices. Employment relations were found to have shifted to different degrees according to the particular geographies and histories of labour markets, employer strategies, local politics and worker solidarities. Despite these variations the asymmetry of employment relations is seen to have endured. I conclude by arguing that whilst power-geometries are not fixed, when ‘institutionalised’ they are not easily changed during ‘everyday’ interaction.     

柴达木盆地东北部中新世沉积物色度记录的气候变化

中新世是新生代古气候变化的关键时期。本文以柴达木盆地东北部瑙格剖面18.4～6.9Ma沉积物为研究对象,通过对沉积物颜色指标的测定与分析,获得该时段沉积物高分辨率颜色指标变化序列。发现色度值变化与氧化—还原作用有关,红度值与赤铁矿相对含量呈正相关。结合其它资料分析表明,柴达木盆地东北部地区中新世气候变化为18.4～14.2Ma相对暖湿阶段、14.2～7.7Ma相对冷湿阶段、7.7～6.9Ma相对干冷阶段,其变化可能受到全球温度变化的影响,气候转型主要导致了该区沉积相和沉积物色度的变化。     

Socio-hydrological framework for investigating farmers’ activities affecting the shrinkage of Urmia Lake; hybrid data mining and agent-based modelling

ABSTRACT

Developing a general framework to capture the complexities associated with the non-linear and adaptive nature of farmers facing water resources scarcity is a challenging problem. This paper integrates agent-based modelling (ABM) and a data mining method to develop a hybrid socio-hydrological framework to provide future insights for policy-makers. The data associated with the farmers’ main characteristics were collected through field surveys and interviews. Afterwards, the association rule was employed to discover the main patterns representing the farmers’ agricultural decisions. The discovered patterns were then used as the behavioural rules in ABM to simulate the agricultural activities. The proposed framework has been was applied to explore the interactions between agricultural activities and the main river feeding the Urmia-Lake, Iran. The outcomes indicate that farmers’ acquisitive traits and belongings have significant impacts on their socio-hydrological interactions. The reported values of the efficiency criteria may support the satisfactory performance of the proposed framework.     

山东省夏季高温气候变化特征分析

对比分析山东省夏季1961～1990年和1971～2000年前后30年极端最高气温和高温日数的分布和变化，得知山东省夏季高温的气候变化存在明显的地域性差异，东部地区高温有所增多，西部地区明显减少。利用统计方法分析山东省各地高温多年变化特征，发现夏季高温日数和极端最高气温均存在明显的年代际变化，且东西部变化不尽相同；在60年代末70年代初全省夏季极端最高气温发生了一次转折性变化。     

华北地区的降水特征及趋势估计

华北地区位于干旱和半干旱地区。气候降水是该区水资源的主要来源之一,也是影响该区水资源周期性变化的主要因素之一。华北及其北、中、南三个分区的年降水距平曲线变化趋势３具有相似性,而且此四个地区连续出现正距平的年数不超过４年,华北及其北、中部连续出现负距平的年数不超过５年,南部不超过６年,华北、黄淮和东北地区东部与印度次大陆大地区夏季降水距平之间存在正相关关系,同时又与澳洲大部分地区冬季降水距平有负相关