白鹤滩和乌东德库区蓄水前形变分析

利用白鹤滩和乌东德库区2018～2019年两期最新地壳形变监测资料对两个库区在监视期的形变特征进行分析,其中水准和重力资料采用相对基准分析法,谷宽和跨断层测距资料采用投影面相对坐标分析法。结果表明：1）白鹤滩库区上游左岸中部存在16 km范围的沉降区,乌东德库区上游右岸水准支线所在地区隆升较大,两个库区其他地区均相对稳定,垂直形变量均小于5 mm;2）两个库区重力场变化基本平稳,无显著性异常变化,个别测点重力值变化较大是周围环境改变导致;3）两个库区4个谷宽网各点的相对坐标变化均不大,但4个谷宽网均显示相对收缩,量值在1~2 mm;4）两个库区6处跨断层场地中有5处比较稳定,监视期间断层无显著垂直活动和水平活动迹象,乌东德库区洛佐场地监视区断层两侧存在一定的差异性垂向运动并伴随水平向挤压运动。该结果可为水库蓄水后形变以及水库诱发地震的研究提供背景参考。     

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Nash model parameter uncertainty analysis by AM-MCMC based on BFS and probabilistic flood forecasting

A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hydrologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simulated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.     

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An RBF‐based model with an information processor for forecasting hourly reservoir inflow during typhoons

Inflow forecasting is essential for decision making on reservoir operation during typhoons. In this paper, a radial basis function (RBF)‐based model with an information processor is proposed for more accurate forecasts of hourly reservoir inflow. Firstly, based on the multilayer perceptron neural (MLP) network, an information processor is developed to pre‐process the typhoon information (namely, typhoon characteristics and rainfall) and to produce forecasts of rainfall. The forecasted rainfall and the observed inflow are then used as input to the RBF‐based model, which is a nonlinear function approximator, to produce forecasts of hourly inflow. For parameter estimation of the RBF‐based model, the fully‐supervised learning algorithm is used. Actual applications of the proposed model are performed to yield 1‐ to 6‐h ahead forecasts of inflow. To assess the improvement due to the use of the typhoon information processor, models without the typhoon information processor are constructed and compared with the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model performs the best and is capable of providing improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially for long lead‐time. In conclusion, the proposed model with a typhoon information processor can extract useful information from typhoon characteristics and rainfall, and consequently improve the forecasting performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山东省苍山县小阎庄铁矿矿区东部水文地质特征研究

通过地球物理勘探、水文地质调查、钻孔和抽水试验,结合区域水文、气象、地质和水文地质等资料,求得了矿体上部盖层裂隙岩溶水水文地质参数,且对裂隙岩溶水水量进行了计算;以"大井法"为主对矿坑涌水量进行了预测,基本查明了矿区东部的水文地质特征;阐述自然条件下裂隙岩溶水对基岩裂隙水的补给微弱;当水动力条件发生改变时,易造成盖层裂隙岩溶水下渗溃入坑道,对下部矿体的开采将产生较大威胁。     

异常冷冬的短期气候预测方法探讨

本文通过对四川省广安市近50年冬季气候资料的聚类分析,研究冷冬气候的演变规律;结合太阳黑子活动资料、夏季极端异常气候事件分析,发现广安市异常冷冬年的发生发展和一月太阳黑子活动存在着密切的相关关系,与本市盛夏期间极端气候事件有明显的周期性对应关系;从而探索得出对异常冷冬年的短期气候预测方法,为准确预测冷冬,特别是预测异常冷冬将发挥重要的作用。     

灰色系统理论在绵阳市作物病虫害预测中的应用

作物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统,针对这一特点,本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方法,建立了作物病虫害测报中的GM (1,1)模型,测报准确性较高,模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平,发展系数<0.3,可用于该地区作物病虫害作中长期预测。     

海底沉积物声速经验方程的分析和研究

比较国内外主要研究者提出的海底沉积物声速单参数、双参数和多参数预报经验方程的物理意义和适用性,提出了孔隙度-含水量预报海底沉积物声速新的双参数公式,该式避免了单一参数预报声速经验方程和某些双参数公式中物理意义不明确以及多参数方程复杂性及对提高预报计算能力效果不显著之处.基于理论分析,改进孔隙度-含水量双参数计算公式得到的通用模型具有明确的物理意义,可以通过修改参数适用于不同海域的声速预报,提高了泛化能力,扩大了适用范围.通过对孔隙度、含水量等物理参数的权值分析研究,更加明确了孔隙度是影响海底沉积物声速大小的最关键参数.用台湾海峡北部、南海海域、珠江口大陆架三处的海域沉积物测量数据比较了不同模型,验证了本模型的优越性.