从科学和政策视角看碳预算对全球气候治理的作用

IPCC第五次评估报告进一步阐述和明确了全球平均地表温升与累积CO₂排放之间的近似线性关系。尽管在科学上仍存在一定的不确定性,国际社会对2℃温升目标及所对应的全球累积碳排放空间(即全球碳预算目标)已达成一定的科学认知和政治共识。但如何将碳预算从目标要求转变为各国决策和实际行动,仍是政策制定者们所面临的一个重要问题。在此背景下,提出建立一个有效的碳预算综合管理框架,努力避免人为温室气体排放导致气候系统危害,并利用其科学和政策的双重内涵,来推动谈判进程和加大行动力度,在新型气候治理模式下推动全球减排目标的实现。     

主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示

随着气候变化影响加剧,全球气候治理进程加速,实现碳达峰已经成为全球气候行动的核心,各国也相继制定碳中和目标并开展行动。中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上提出了碳达峰碳中和目标,部分已实现碳达峰的发达经济体也提出了各自的碳中和承诺。文中从“整体-阶段”及“焦点-公平”视角分析了欧盟和美国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的历程和特点,以及其碳中和目标和规划。研究发现,发达经济体在碳达峰过程中普遍经历了较长的爬坡期（58~136年）和平台期（4~20年),在碳达峰时,发达经济体的能源结构以油气为主,油气占一次能源消费比重为57%~77%,其人均排放量、历史累计排放以及人均GDP也都处于较高水平,在碳达峰前后总体处于经济与碳排放脱钩状态。各发达经济体的碳中和路径均以能源转型为重点,采用了多元化的政策工具,并且注重低碳和负碳技术的革新。根据发达经济体的政策展望,在实现碳中和时,均难以将绝对排放量降为零,都需要通过碳移除手段进行抵消。通过对比分析,发现中国的碳达峰和碳中和目标是具有雄心的气候承诺,相较其他发达经济体需要付出更大努力。建议运用全面综合的政策工具支撑碳中和目标的有效落实,加快中国的气候立法,在兼顾公正转型的同时推动能源结构调整,注重可再生能源和能效方面的新技术开发应用。     

Drivers,constraints and trade-offs associated with recultivating abandoned cropland in Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Further cropland expansion might be unavoidable to satisfy the growing demand for land-based products and ecosystem services. A crucial issue is thus to assess the trade-offs between social and ecological impacts and the benefits of converting additional land to cropland. In the former Soviet Union countries, where the transition from state-command to market-driven economies resulted in widespread agricultural land abandonment, cropland expansion may incur relatively low costs, especially compared with tropical regions.Our objectives were to quantify the drivers, constraints and trade-offs associated with recultivating abandoned cropland to assess the potentially available cropland in European Russia, western Siberia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan—the region where the vast majority of post-Soviet cropland abandonment took place. Using spatial panel regressions, we characterized the socio-economic determinants of cropland abandonment and recultivation. We then used recent maps of changes in cropland to (i) spatially characterize the socio-economic, accessibility and soil constraints associated with the recultivation of abandoned croplands and (ii) investigate the environmental trade-offs regarding carbon stocks and habitat for biodiversity.Less cropland abandonment and more recultivation after 2000 occurred in areas with an increasing rural population and a younger labor force, but also improved yields. Synergies were observed between cropland recultivation and intensification over the 2000s. From 47.3 million hectares (Mha) of cropland abandoned in 2009, we identified only 8.5 (7.1–17.4) Mha of potentially available cropland with low environmental trade-offs and low to moderate socio-economic or accessibility constraints that were located on high-quality soils (Chernozems). These areas represented an annual wheat production potential of ∼14.3 (9.6–19.5) million tons (Mt). Conversely, 8.5 (4.2–12.4) Mha had high carbon or biodiversity trade-offs, of which ∼10% might be attractive for cropland expansion and thus would require protection from recultivation. Agro-environmental, accessibility, and socio-economic constraints suggested that the remaining 30.6 (25.7–30.6) Mha of abandoned croplands were unlikely to provide important contributions to future crop production at current wheat prices but could provide various ecosystem services, and some could support extensive livestock production. Political and institutional support could foster recultivation by supporting investments in agriculture and rural demographic revitalization. Reclaiming potentially available cropland in the study region could provide a notable contribution to global grain production, with relatively low environmental trade-offs compared with tropical frontiers, but is not a panacea to address global issues of food security or reduce land-use pressure on tropical ecosystems.     

Bridging organizations in agricultural carbon markets and poverty alleviation: An analysis of pro-Poor carbon market projects in East Africa

International agricultural carbon market projects face significant challenges in delivering greenhouse gas mitigation objectives whilst also seeking to provide additional benefits for poverty alleviation. The carbon credit producer (the smallholder farmer) and carbon credit buyer in the carbon market transaction typically operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Buyers operate at a global scale, responding to opportunities for financial speculation and both private and public climate action plans. Farmers operate within households, farms, and immediate agricultural landscapes, pursuing livelihood and food security needs. These different scales often result in mismatches of timing, payment, and knowledge in market transactions and can be partially rectified by project developers who serve to broker the relationship between the farmers and the buyers. We examined eight East African agricultural carbon market projects to determine how project developers function as bridging organizations and minimize the mismatches between these actors. Results show that projects better bridged the timing and payment gap between buyers and producers when project developers provided non-monetary benefits or direct monetary assistance to farmers. However, knowledge gaps remained a significant barrier for farmers wishing to participate in the market. We discuss how project developers brokered relationships in ways that reflected their interests and highlight the limitations, trade-offs, and challenges that must be overcome if win-win outcomes of poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are to be realized.     

獐子岛养殖海域颗粒有机碳、颗粒氮的时空分布特征

2011年8月、10月、12月和2012年4月对大连獐子岛养殖海域共14个站位进行了大面调查。对其中颗粒有机碳(POC)和颗粒氮(PN)的时空分布特征进行了研究。结果表明,獐子岛养殖海域水体中POC质量浓度的季节变化趋势是:夏季秋季春季冬季。夏季POC质量浓度最高,表、底层的质量浓度分别为0.159~1.672 mg/L和0.045~0.834 mg/L,平均值分别为(0.867±0.451)mg/L和(0.319±0.204)mg/L。冬季表、底层POC质量浓度最低,表、底层POC质量浓度分别为0.020~0.530 mg/L和0.061~0.458 mg/L。平均值分别为(0.240±0.125)mg/L和(0.221±0.129)mg/L。四个季节的POC质量浓度平面分布较为均匀。PN质量浓度的季节变化趋势是:夏季秋季冬季春季。夏季PN的质量浓度最高,表、底层PN的质量浓度分别为0.026~0.439 mg/L和0.020~0.393 mg/L,平均值分别为(0.193±0.067)mg/L和(0.172±0.060)mg/L。春季表、底层PN质量浓度最低,表、底层PN质量浓度分别为0.059~0.178 mg/L和0.024~0.212 mg/L,平均值分别为(0.120±0.047)mg/L和(0.100±0.050)mg/L。PN与POC的分布特征相似,空间分布均匀。叶绿素a(Chl-a)质量浓度的变化趋势为:夏季秋季春季冬季。POC、PN和Chl-a的垂直分布规律相似,春季底层质量浓度高于表层,夏秋两季表层质量浓度高于底层,冬季表、底层质量浓度基本一致。根据C/N以及POC/Chl-a的比值对POC的来源进行初步分析,表明该海域的POC主要来源于海洋生物,并且受陆源的影响较小。     

北黄海盆地LV井侏罗系油砂抽提物地球化学特征

对北黄海盆地侏罗系两块含油砂岩的抽提物进行了常规的有机地球化学分析和碳同位素测试,结果表明它们具有不同的地球化学特征:埋藏较深的油砂抽提物属正常原油,饱和烃以正构烷烃为主,色谱图显示单峰型正态分布;而埋藏较浅的油砂抽提物,在饱和烃色谱图中有明显的UCM鼓包,同时含有完整的低碳数的正构烷烃、姥鲛烷和植烷,全油及族组成碳同位素分布范围广,为-24.7‰~-32.3‰,其中,全油及沥青质碳同位素偏重,饱和烃和芳烃碳同位素轻,反映出遭受了强烈的生物降解作用。与成熟度相关的生物标志物参数显示,原油已进入成熟—高成熟阶段。生物标志物和碳同位素组成表明,母质是在水体较浅的湖相环境下沉积的,受陆源高等植物和低等水生藻类的双源控制。综合判断,研究区存在两期油气充注。     

四川盆地东部下寒武统龙王庙组碳、氧同位素组成及古环境意义

在野外沉积特征研究、室内薄片观察的基础上,对四川盆地东部龙王庙组22个碳酸盐岩样品的碳、氧同位素进行测试,在充分论证样品的有效性后,分析研究区龙王庙组碳、氧同位素特征,进而探讨龙王庙组沉积期的古气候及古海洋环境。样品实验数据显示δ13C值分布在-1.533‰~2.619‰,平均为0.046‰;δ18O值分布在-9.916‰~-3.580‰,平均为-7.746‰;碳、氧同位素整体变化趋势与扬子地台其他区域基本相同。古海洋环境恢复表明,龙王庙组沉积期四川盆地东部整体处于海相环境,海水盐度呈先降低、后增高、复又降低的多段式变化;海水温度主要分布在20~30℃,属于温暖或炎热的亚热带气候;在海平面缓慢波动性下降、陆架暴露、生物灭绝的沉积环境影响下,龙王庙组δ13C值具有负漂移的演化趋势。龙王庙组沉积中期的水体深度最浅,古盐度最高,是白云岩最为有利的发育阶段。     

Origin and distribution of hydrogen sulfide in the Yuanba gas field,Sichuan Basin,Southwest China

The Yuanba gas field in the Permian Changxing Formation (P₂c), which exhibits wide variations in its hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) concentration (1.20–12.16%), is a typical sour gas field in the northern Sichuan Basin. The sulfur-rich reservoir's solid bitumen (atomic S/C ratios are 0.032–0.142), and late calcite cement δ¹³C values, which are smaller than the δ¹³C values of the host dolostone, indicate that the H₂S originated from thermal sulfate reduction (TSR) and oil was involved in TSR. The gas souring index (GSI) of P₂c's gases is generally lower than 0.1. The ethane δ¹³C values increase as the GSI increases, although no obvious increase was observed in the methane δ¹³C values. The calcite cements' δ¹³C values (−15.36 to +4.56‰) in dolostone are heavier than the typical reported values, which implies that only limited heavy hydrocarbon gases were involved in TSR. No anhydrites developed in P₂c's reservoirs, and dissolved sulfate anions (SO₄²⁻) were mainly enriched during dolomitization. Insufficient dissolved SO₄²⁻ most likely caused the lower H₂S concentrations in the Permian to Triassic reservoirs in the northeastern Sichuan Basin compared to the Permian Khuff Formation in Saudi Arabia and the Jurassic Smackover Formation in Mississippi. Except for the SO₄²⁻ in residual water in paleo-oil zones, SO₄²⁻ from bottom water may also be involved in TSR; therefore, oil reservoirs with bottom water have more SO₄²⁻ and can produce more H₂S than pure oil reservoirs. This phenomenon may be the main cause of the great difference in the H₂S concentrations between reservoirs, while gravitational differentiation during late uplift most likely creates differences in H₂S concentrations in a single reservoir. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), which has a relatively heavy δ¹³C value (−3.9 to −0.3‰), may be the combined result of TSR, the balance between CO₂ and inorganic fluid systems, and carbonate decomposition.     

Could working less reduce pressures on the environment? A cross-national panel analysis of OECD countries, 1970–2007

Many scholars and activists are now advocating a program of economic degrowth for developed countries in order to mitigate demands on the global environment. An increasingly prominent idea is that developed countries could achieve slower or zero economic growth in a socially sustainable way by reducing working hours. Research suggests that reduced working hours could contribute to sustainability by decreasing the scale of economic output and the environmental intensity of consumption patterns. Here, we investigate the effect of working hours on three environmental indicators: ecological footprint, carbon footprint, and carbon dioxide emissions. Using data for 1970–2007, our panel analysis of 29 high-income OECD countries indicates that working hours are significantly associated with greater environmental pressures and thus may be an attractive target for policies promoting environmental sustainability.     

How does carbon dioxide emission change with the economic development? Statistical experiences from 132 countries

Issues concerning what measures should be adopted to achieve a sustainable world with less carbon dioxide emission and in what magnitude should we reduce our emission have been on agenda in both international negotiations and countries’ policy making aimed at coping with potential global climate change. These issues cannot be easily addressed unless comprehensive understanding about the countries’ status quo as well as historical relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emission are gained. In this paper, we examine the historical relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emission; the ex ante restrictions on function forms and the poorly handled robustness issues rife in economics literature are synthetically addressed. Evidence from recent four decades indicates that per capita carbon dioxide emission first significantly and monotonously increase at low income level and flattens after per capita income reaches at about 22,000 $ (2005 constant price). We perform various robustness checks by employing different data sources, different model specifications and different econometric estimates. The captured development–emission relationship is robust. Our empirical results indicate factors such as urbanization, population density, trade, energy mix and economic environment impact the absolute level of carbon dioxide emission not the overall income elasticity structure of carbon dioxide emission.