Simulation and Improvements of Oceanic Circulation and Sea Ice by the Coupled Climate System Model FGOALS-f3-L

This study documents simulated oceanic circulations and sea ice by the coupled climate system model FGOALS-f3-L developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, under historical forcing from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). FGOALS-f3-L reproduces the fundamental features of global oceanic circulations, such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), mixed layer depth (MLD), vertical temperature and salinity, and meridional overturning circulations. There are notable improvements compared with the previous version, FGOALS-s2, such as a reduction in warm SST biases near the western and eastern boundaries of oceans and salty SSS biases in the tropical western Atlantic and eastern boundaries, and a mitigation of deep MLD biases at high latitudes. However, several obvious biases remain. The most significant biases include cold SST biases in the northwestern Pacific (over 4°C), freshwater SSS biases and deep MLD biases in the subtropics, and temperature and salinity biases in deep ocean at high latitudes. The simulated sea ice shows a reasonable distribution but stronger seasonal cycle than observed. The spatial patterns of sea ice are more realistic in FGOALS-f3-L than its previous version because the latitude–longitude grid is replaced with a tripolar grid in the ocean and sea ice model. The most significant biases are the overestimated sea ice and underestimated SSS in the Labrador Sea and Barents Sea, which are related to the shallower MLD and weaker vertical mixing.     

CAS-FGOALS Datasets for the Two Interglacial Epochs of the Holocene and the Last Interglacial in PMIP4

Two versions of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model(CASFGOALS), version f3-L and g3, are used to simulate the two interglacial epochs of the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in phase 4 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project(PMIP4), which aims to study the impact of changes in orbital parameters on the Earth's climate. Following the PMIP4 experimental protocols, four simulations for the mid-Holocene and two simulations for the Last Interglacial have been completed, and all the data, including monthly and daily outputs for the atmospheric, oceanic, land and sea-ice components, have been released on the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF) node. These datasets contribute to PMIP4 and CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) by providing the variables necessary for the two interglacial periods. In this paper, the basic information of the CAS-FGOALS models and the protocols for the two interglacials are briefly described, and the datasets are validated using proxy records. Results suggest that the CAS-FGOALS models capture the large-scale changes in the climate system in response to changes in solar insolation during the interglacial epochs, including warming in mid-to-high latitudes, changes in the hydrological cycle, the seasonal variation in the extent of sea ice, and the damping of interannual variabilities in the tropical Pacific. Meanwhile, disagreements within and between the models and the proxy data are also presented. These datasets will help the modeling and the proxy data communities with a better understanding of model performance and biases in paleoclimate simulations.     

LICOM Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The datasets of two Ocean Model Intercomparison Project(OMIP)simulation experiments from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model,version 3(LICOM3),forced by two different sets of atmospheric surface data,are described in this paper.The experiment forced by CORE-II(Co-ordinated Ocean–Ice Reference Experiments,Phase II)data(1948–2009)is called OMIP1,and that forced by JRA55-do(surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis)data(1958–2018)is called OMIP2.First,the improvement of LICOM from CMIP5 to CMIP6 and the configurations of the two experiments are described.Second,the basic performances of the two experiments are validated using the climatological-mean and interannual time scales from observation.We find that the mean states,interannual variabilities,and long-term linear trends can be reproduced well by the two experiments.The differences between the two datasets are also discussed.Finally,the usage of these data is described.These datasets are helpful toward understanding the origin system bias of the fully coupled model.     

Asymmetry of surface climate change under RCP2.6 projections from the CMIP5 models

The multi-model ensemble (MME) of 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) was used to analyze surface climate change in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP2.6, to reflect emission mitigation efforts. The maximum increase of surface air temperature (SAT) is 1.86°C relative to the pre-industrial level, achieving the target to limit the global warming to 2°C. Associated with the “increase-peak-decline” greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration pathway of RCP2.6, the global mean SAT of MME shows opposite trends during two time periods: warming during 2006–55 and cooling during 2056–2100. Our results indicate that spatial distribution of the linear trend of SAT during the warming period exhibited asymmetrical features compared to that during the cooling period. The warming during 2006–55 is distributed globally, while the cooling during 2056–2100 mainly occurred in the NH, the South Indian Ocean, and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Different dominant roles of heat flux in the two time periods partly explain the asymmetry. During the warming period, the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation both play major roles in heating the surface air. During the cooling period, the increase of net longwave radiation partly explains the cooling in the tropics and subtropics, which is associated with the decrease of total cloud amount. The decrease of the shortwave radiation accounts for the prominent cooling in the high latitudes of the NH. The surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation collectively contribute to the especial warming phenomenon in the high-latitude of the SH during the cooling period.     

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.     

气象干旱对中亚棉花产量的影响

极端干旱事件频发对中亚棉花生产具有重要影响。本文利用乌兹别克斯坦赞格阿塔实验站棉花大田试验数据评估了APSIM-Cotton模型的适用性,根据CMIP6气候模式模拟的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种共享社会经济路径下的气候变化数据集,分析了2021—2090年SPEI-3干旱指数的变化特征,进而利用APSIM-Cotton模型模拟了考虑CO₂肥效作用的气象干旱对棉花产量的影响。结果表明：APSIM-Cotton模型能够准确模拟乌兹别克斯坦塔什干地区的生育期和产量变化趋势;未来塔什干地区呈现温度明显升高、干旱发生频率明显增加的特征;气象干旱将导致棉花产量下降,SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种排放情景下,严重气象干旱导致2021—2050年棉花产量较1961—1990年分别下降28.0%、29.6%和32.1%,2061—2090年棉花分别减产31.5%、33.1%和35.7%,在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,极端气象干旱导致2061—2090年棉花产量分别下降41.3%和54.2%;CO₂浓度升高可提高棉花产量,贡献率为14.9%~25.0%,但浓度达到750 µmol/mol以上时,棉花增产幅度将不再持续增加。     

基于径流对气候变化敏感性指标的多源数据质量评估

准确评估径流对气候变化的敏感性对水资源管理至关重要。多源气象水文数据集已被广泛应用于径流对气候变化敏感性的分析中,但目前尚无研究从径流敏感性的角度评价不同数据集。基于中国6个不同气候条件流域的实测气象水文资料,本文计算了径流对降水和潜在蒸散发变化的敏感性,并以此为基准评估4类数据集GLDAS、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b、CMIP6 共45套子数据集的径流敏感性模拟效果。结果表明：GLDAS数据集模拟精度较低,CMIP6、ISIMIP2a、ISIMIP2b数据集模拟精度差异较小;3套子数据集ISIMIP2a中的CLM4.0、CMIP6中的UKESM1-0-LL、MIROC6在6个流域均具有较好的径流敏感性模拟效果,可适用于不同气候条件下的径流敏感性模拟与演化趋势分析。本文研究结果可为气候变化影响下中国稀缺资料流域的径流和水资源变化预估提供参考。     

CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.     

CMIP5耦合模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟及预估

基于美国冰雪资料中心(NSIDC)提供的卫星遥感雪水当量资料,评估了26个CMIP5(Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project)耦合模式对1981~2005年欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量的模拟能力,在此基础上应用多模式集合平均结果,预估了21世纪欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化情况。结果表明,CMIP5耦合模式对欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量空间分布具有一定的模拟能力,能够再现出欧亚大陆冬季雪水当量由南向北递增、青藏高原积雪多于同纬度其他地区的特征;就雪水当量的幅值而言,几乎所有模式均显著低估了西伯利亚中部雪水当量的大值中心,对中国东北地区雪水当量的模拟也显著偏低,但模式对乌拉尔山以西的东欧平原、我国北方及蒙古地区冬季雪水当量的模拟却比卫星遥感资料显著偏大,此外模式对堪察加半岛及以北的西伯利亚东北部地区的雪水当量也明显偏大。对于青藏高原地区,虽然部分模式可以模拟出青藏高原东部的雪水当量大值区,但大多数模式对青藏高原西部雪水当量的模拟却明显偏大,存在虚假的大值中心。对遥感反演资料的EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function)分解表明,对于EOF第一个模态所对应欧亚大陆全区一致的年代际变化特征,仅有少数模式具有一定的模拟能力,大多数模式以及多模式集合的结果均未能予以反映;对应于欧亚大陆雪水当量年际变化的EOF第二模态而言,仅有少数模式(如俄罗斯的INMCM4)具有一定的再现能力,绝大多数模式对该模态及其时间演变的特征没有模拟能力。比较CMIP5多模式的集合预估结果与1981~2005年基准时段的雪水当量,可以发现在RCP4.5排放情景下,西伯利亚中东部地区的雪水当量相对于基准时段显著增加,区域平均的增加量在21世纪前、中、后期分别为4.1mm、5.4 mm和6.8 mm,且随时间增加得更显著;对90°E以西的欧洲大陆和青藏高原地区,其雪水当量则相对减少,减少的幅度和显著性也随时间而增大。就雪水当量的相对变化而言,在欧亚大陆东北部存在雪水当量相对变化的大值区,在21世纪后期相对变化显著区大都在5%~10%;但在青藏高原、斯堪的纳维亚半岛进和东欧平原,并没有发现雪水当量相对变化的髙值区,这是由于这些区域冬季雪水当量的幅值较大的缘故。RCP8.5情景下欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化特征与RCP4.5相类似,只是变化的幅度更大。     

基于PMIP3和CMIP5模拟结果的过去千年特征时段北极涛动的变率特征及成因分析

利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划（Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III,PMIP3）过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划（Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5）全强迫历史情景试验的9个地球系统模式模拟试验结果,对过去千年3个特征时段（中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期）北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation, AO）的变率及成因进行了分析。通过与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,模式能够较好地模拟出AO的空间模态及年际变化周期,且大部分模式能够模拟出过去50年AO的增强趋势。过去千年3个特征时段中,不同模式对中世纪气候异常期AO位相的模拟并不一致,但大部分模式显示小冰期AO基本呈现负位相,而现代暖期则表现为显著的正位相,与重建结果一致。基于多模式集合平均的机制分析表明,中世纪气候异常期北极地区海平面气压变化不显著,小冰期北极地区海平面气压显著偏正,现代暖期海平面气压显著偏负,这与现代暖期北极温度偏高而小冰期北极温度偏低有关。过去千年中,小冰期和现代暖期的AO变率分别受自然外强迫和人为外强迫的影响。