Paleoclimatic proxies from global closed basins and the possible beginning of Anthropocene

Global closed basins,occupying almost one fifth of the world's land area,spatially coincide with arid and semiarid areas.Paleoclimatic proxies can indicate basin-wide envi-ronmental change and human activity.However,previous studies have not approached the use of proxies in the same way to reconstruct natural and anthropogenic processes at re-gional and global scales.Here we present a regional study to investigate the basic processes of paleoclimatic proxies,from a typical closed-basin system in arid China.We use multiple paleoclimatic proxies of surface samples and sediments,as well as groundwater and sedi-ment ages to study environmental change and human activity.We then establish a dataset for paleoclimatic proxies from global closed basins and do a numerical analysis on it.Regional studies verify that human activity greatly impacts paleoclimatic proxies,especially with regard to surface samples,as well as groundwater age,but Holocene sediments are less affected.Results from global studies indicate that the major changing trend of the wet/dry status of closed basins is associated with the movement of the westerly jet streams controlled by long-term changes in winter insolation.There is an abrupt change between 1800 AD and 1900 AD,according to a numerical synthesis of paleoclimatic proxies from global closed ba-sins,which can be linked to human impact.We suggest this time period can be considered as a start point for the Anthropocene based on the sedimentary evidence of closed basins,globally.     

河南夏季日最大电力负荷预测模型

利用2005—2009年河南逐日最大电力负荷和气象资料,分析了河南日最大电力负荷的变化特征及其与气象因子的关系。河南日最大电力负荷季节变化呈双峰型,最大的峰值出现在夏季,次峰值在冬季。夏季电力负荷与气温和炎热指数有密切的关系。用逐步回归方法,针对夏季(方案1,不区分工作日和休息日)以及周一至周日(方案2,区分工作日和休息日)分别建立日最大电力负荷预测模型,并对2010年夏季逐日最大电力负荷进行预测,两种预测方案对2010年夏季日最大电力负荷预测的平均相对误差均小于3%,相关系数均达到0.90,两方案在工作日预测结果都较好,但休息日预测误差相对较大。     

长沙市夏季百叶箱内外温度特征

对长沙市2011、2012年夏季(6—9月)百叶箱内外温度同步观测资料进行统计分析,结果表明:百叶箱内外温度呈现白天箱外温度高于箱内,晚上低于箱内的日变化特征,但不同类型天气交替时间存在早晚不一。箱内外夏季平均温度、极端最高温度的变化趋势一致,但箱外温度高于箱内,且不同类型天气百叶箱内外温度存在差异,阴雨天平均相差1.2℃,多云差2.8℃,晴天差3.1℃,极端最高温差达6.4℃。特别是日最高温度大于等于35℃的高温日数,2年箱内共出现61天,而箱外多达125天;箱内极端最高温度为38.9℃,而箱外极端最高温度高达42.0℃。因此,在高温预报和公共气象服务工作中,应当要考虑外界温度(百叶箱外温度)与百叶箱内温度之间存在的差异。     

2012年我国夏季降水预测与异常成因分析

本文对2012年我国夏季降水的实况和预测进行简要回顾,发现2012年夏季降水大体呈北方涝、长江旱的分布,主雨带位于黄河流域及其以北,降水异常偏多的区域主要位于西北大部、内蒙古和环渤海湾,黄淮与江淮地区降水偏少,江汉至淮河上游一带干旱严重;预测的主雨带位于华北南部至淮河,较实况偏南。对我国北方降水异常偏多的成因分析表明:2012年夏季欧亚中高纬地区阻塞高压（简称阻高）强盛,同时东北冷涡活动频繁,中高纬500 hPa高度场从西至东呈“+-+”的分布,这种环流形势没有造成长江洪涝是因为东亚夏季风异常偏强,同时西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏北,冷暖空气对峙于我国北方地区,导致北方降水异常偏多。分析还表明阻高、东北冷涡、东亚夏季风和副高这四个系统的不同配置影响着冷暖气流的对峙位置,进而形成我国夏季的主雨带。最后通过定量和定性判断相结合的方法,选取了2012年夏季降水的最佳相似年和最佳相反年,对比分析了2012年夏季降水与其最佳相似年和最佳相反年的海温演变与东亚夏季风环流系统主要成员的差异:1959年夏季降水作为2012年夏季降水的最佳相似年,虽然海温及东亚夏季风系统关键成员异常不明显,但是和2012年也呈近似相反的特征;而1980年夏季降水作为2012年夏季降水的最佳相反年,海温及东亚夏季风环流系统关键成员和2012年呈显著的反向特征,这些观测事实反映了我国夏季降水与海温及东亚夏季风环流系统关键成员这些主要影响因子之间关系的年代际变化。     

东海南部海域夏秋季沿岸流特征

Current characteristics and vertical variations during summer and autumn in the southern East China Sea were investigated by measuring current profile, tide, wind, and wave data for 90 d from July 28 to October 25, 2015. Our results are:(1) The current was mainly a(clockwise) rotating flow, displaying reciprocating flow characteristics,and vertically the current directions were the same throughout the vertical profile.(2) The horizontal current speed was strongest during August(summer) with an average speed of 51.8 cm/s. The average current speeds during spring tides were highest in August and weakest in September, with speeds of 59.9 and 42.8 cm/s,respectively.(3) Considerable differences exist in average current speeds in different layers and seasons. The highest average current speeds were found in the middle–upper layers in August and in the middle–lower layers in September and October.(4) The residual current speed was highest in August, when the speed was 12.5–47.1 cm/s,whereas the vertical average current speed was 34.3 cm/s. The depth-averaged residual current speeds in September and October were only 50% of that in August, and the residual current direction gradually rotated in a counter-clockwise direction from the lower to surface layers.(5) Typhoon waves had a significant influence on the currents, and even affected the middle and lower water layers at depths of >70.0 m. Our results showed that the currents are controlled by the dynamic interplay of the Taiwan Warm Current, incursion of the Kuroshio Current onto the continental shelf, and monsoonal changes.     

Analysis on Motion and Cable Dynamic Tension for An ALT-Tanker System

A two-degree freedom model for an ALT-tanker system is established corresponding to the pitch of the ALT and the surge of the tanker.Tension in the mooring cable between the ALT and the tanker is represented by an unsymmetrical,piecewise-nonlinear function.Wave load on the tower is evaluated by use of the Morison equation.The first order wave load acting on the tanker is calculated by the linear diffraction theory based on the 2-D Helmholtz equation,and the near field approach of Pinkster is used to evaluate the second order drift force.The dynamic equation of motion is established based on the principle of D'lembert.Dynamic response and cable tension of a mooring system composed of an 88.4 m ALT and a 100000 t grade tanker are calculated.The influence of wave frequency,wave excitation amplitude,wind and current force on ALT-tanker motion and cable tension is discussed.     

冬季热带印度洋季节内振荡的物理结构

利用最新的卫星遥感资料、现场观测资料以及海-气通量再分析资料,采用延时相关分析和合成分析方法,分析了冬季热带印度洋季节内振荡的物理结构.结果表明,季节内振荡的结构与原有认识不同,大气深对流中心(短波辐射极小值)和纬向西风极大值(潜热通量极大值)同位相,这种结构有利于海表温度对季节内振荡强迫产生显著的响应,与观测到的热带印度洋海表温度的强季节内变化信号一致,也预示着海-气耦合对于热带印度洋季节内振荡具有重要影响.     

Experimental Study of Nonlinear Behaviors of A Free-Floating Body in Waves

Nonlinear behaviors of a free-floating body in waves were experimentally investigated in the present study. The experiments were carried out for 6 different wave heights and 6 different wave periods to cover a relatively wide range of wave nonlinearities. A charge-coupled device (CCD) camera was used to capture the real-time motion of the floating body. The measurement data show that the sway, heave and roll motions of the floating body are all harmonic oscillations while the equilibrium position of the sway motion drifts in the wave direction. The drift speed is proportional to wave steepness when the size of the floating body is comparable to the wavelength, while it is proportional to the square of wave steepness when the floating body is relatively small. In addition, the drift motion leads to a slightly longer oscillation period of the floating body than the wave period of nonlinear wave and the discrepancy increases with the increment of wave steepness.     

黄海海洋对台风“灿鸿”外围过程响应的观测研究

2015年9月台风“灿鸿”经过黄海海域的QF111浮标,该浮标观测到黄海海洋的温度和流速响应。受台风影响,黄海海表温度有明显的下降,降温幅度在2~4°C,且在台风路径右侧形成了海表面温度低于20°C的低温斑块。流速的响应主要表现为台风过境期间流速增强,达1.2~1.5 m/s,呈现出全水深强化的特征。风一直对海洋有能量输入,且在台风过境期间风输入海洋的能量最大,旋转功率谱的分析结果表明台风输入海洋的能量向海洋内部传播。黄海海域由台风激发出的近惯性振荡衰减较快,近惯性振荡e折时间尺度约为2 d。     

2013年赤道波动调制下的东印度洋春季Wyrtki急流季节内变化研究

A strong spring Wyrtki jet(WJ) presents in May 2013 in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The entire buildup and retreat processes of the spring WJ were well captured by two adjacent Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers mounted on the mooring systems. The observed zonal jet behaved as one intraseasonal event with the significant features of abrupt emergence as well as slow disappearance. Further research illustrate that the pronounced surface westerly wind burst during late-April to mid-May, associated with the active phase of a robust eastwardpropagating Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean, was the dominant reason for the rapid acceleration of surface WJ. In contrasting, the governing mechanism for the jet termination was equatorial wave dynamics rather than wind forcing. The decomposition analysis of equatorial waves and the corresponding changes in the ocean thermocline demonstrated that strong WJ was produced rapidly by the wind-generated oceanic downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave and was terminated subsequently by the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave reflecting from eastern boundaries of the Indian Ocean.