天体化学:地球起源与演化的几个关键问题

以近几年天体化学研究取得的一些重要成果，论述了对于认识地球的起源和演化进程的重要意义。地球主要由一套具有独立化学成分组成的硅酸盐质星子群随机碰撞吸积而成。地球的星子堆积形成方式和初始化学成分的不均一性制约着地球后期的非均一、非均变演化过程。以１８００Ｍａ为转折点，地球的演化具明显的两阶段演化特征：早期以初生壳体———星子源地体的形成和发展为特点，后期以岩石圈板块运动为特点。地球演化史中的地外撞击事件，是太阳系形成机制———碰撞吸积作用的继续，是地质历史生物、沉积、岩浆、构造等演化的重要营力之一。     

Reflection coefficients for weak anisotropic media

The interaction of plane elastic waves with a plane boundary between two anisotropic elastic half-spaces is investigated. The anisotropy dealt with in this study is of a general type. Explicit expressions for energy-related reflection and transmission coefficients are derived. They represent an approximation which is valid for a small deviation of the elastic parameters from isotropy.
Classical perturbation theory is applied on a 6times6 non-symmetric real eigenvalue problem to calculate first-order corrections for the polarization and stress of the plane waves. The explicit solution of the isotropic problem is used as a reference case. Degenerate perturbation theory is used to consider the splitting of the isotropic S -wave into two anisotropic qS-waves. The boundary conditions for two half-spaces in welded contact lead to a 6times6 system of linear equations. A correction to the isotropic solution is calculated by linearization. The resultant coefficients are functions of horizontal slowness, Lamé parameters and densities of the reference media, and of the perturbation of the elasticity tensors from isotropy.     

测高卫星径向摄动的时域表示

本文首先推导出了量级为ｅ＾｜ｑ｜的Ｇｌｐｑ（ｅ）的显式表达式，给出了Ｇｌｐｏｐ、Ｇｌｐ１和Ｇｌｐ－１和保留至ｅ＾｜ｑ｜＋２项的高阶公式，然后给出了与Ｋａｕｌａ线性解形式相类似的保留至ｅ＾２项的径向摄动公式，最后给出了径向摄动频率与轨道元素摄动频率之间的对应关系。     

Initial Error-induced Optimal Perturbations in ENSO Predictions,as Derived from an Intermediate Coupled Model

The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in ocean–atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach was employed to study the largest initial error growth in the El Nio predictions of an intermediate coupled model(ICM). The optimal initial errors(as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) and sea level anomalies(SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of El Nio, the El Nio event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly,weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.     

不同扰动方法集合离散度演变的异同性暨地形扰动初探

基于北京“7.21”特大暴雨个例,设计了一种考虑地形不确定性对降水影响的集合预报方案,在对该方案进行初步评估的基础上,重点通过计算相关系数、扰动总能量和尺度分解,对包括地形扰动方案在内的4种集合预报方案（初值、多物理、地形、初值-多物理混合）中离散度演变的异同性进行了分析。结果表明：（1）考虑模式地形不确定性的扰动方案,在不影响集合平均降水预报质量的基础上,对集合降水预报的离散度和概率预报略有正贡献。（2）离散度空间结构的演变与天气形势的演变密切相关。不同扰动方案产生的离散度在初始时刻的空间分布各不相同,但随模式向前积分其离散度的相似度快速增大,其中0-6 h内增长速度最快,离散度场之间的相关系数可以超过0.6。混合方案与单一扰动方案相比,对离散度空间结构的贡献不大。（3）虽然不同方案的离散度空间结构相似,但其幅度却存在明显的差异,如地形扰动方案的离散度幅度明显小于初值扰动和物理过程扰动方案。混合方案可以增加原单一扰动方案的离散度振幅,但这种增加在高层明显,而在近地面层并不明显,因而增加降水和其他近地面大气变量的离散度要比增加上层大气变量的离散度更困难。（4）尺度分离的结果表明,随着空间尺度的增大和积分时间的延长,不同扰动方法产生的离散度结构会逐渐变得相似,但在积分早期（<12 h）和较小的空间尺度（<448 km）上离散度结构的差异仍明显,并且在较小的空间尺度（<448 km）上,不同扰动方法产生的离散度幅度有明显的差异。所以对于小空间尺度系统或甚短期预报,选择扰动方案比大尺度和较长期的预报更重要。以上研究可为集合预报如何合理采用不同扰动方案或不同方案的组合提供科学依据。     

GRAPES三维云初始场形成及在短临预报中的应用

围绕GRAPES_Meso的云初始场形成,以ARPS模式云分析方案为基础,优化诊断后应用我国风云二号静止气象卫星云产品、多普勒天气雷达三维组网拼图产品等观测资料结合模式背景信息,根据云热力-动力学原理及观测试验经验关系等,对云初始场的信息进行分析并通过松弛逼近同化方法实现对云内微物理信息同化应用。GRAPES_Meso中采用优化后的云初始场方案,水平分辨率为0.03°×0.03°和0.1°×0.1°的1个月（2014年7月15日-8月14日）连续试验和个例分析结果显示:云初始场形成方案能够分析出飑线等天气系统的云系和云内微物理变量特征。从模拟云图看,包含云初始场信息的GRAPES_Meso的云系的形态特征和分布范围短时临近预报结果更为准确。云初始场信息同化应用后,在1 h的时间尺度上,即可预报出与实况更为接近的降水;0~12 h时间范围内对降水均有积极的影响,可满足短时临近预报的需求,降水量级略偏大。批量连续试验（水平分辨率为0.03°×0.03°和0.1°×0.1°）的各个量级降水ETS（equitable threat score）评分都显著提高。     

NUMERICAL STUDIES OF PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ON SUPER TYPHOON SANBA (2012) DURING ITS INITIAL STAGE

The formation and development of typhoons are closely related to the disturbed low vortexes at the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The effects of five PBL parameterization schemes (PBL schemes hereinafter) on the trajectory, intensity, and distribution of physical quantities are studied using the mesoscale WRF model on Super Typhoon Sanba (2012) during its initial stage. Results show that the five PBL schemes exhibit significant different effects on the simulated intensity and path. The results simulated by QNSE and ACM2 without the Bogus method are close to the best track data in the numerical experiments. When the Bogus method is adopted, the simulated trajectories improve significantly because the initial field is close to the true data. Among the five PBL schemes, QNSE and ACM2 with the Bogus method present improved simulated path and intensity compared with the three other schemes. This finding indicates that the two schemes deal with the initial PBL process satisfactorily, especially in the formation and development of disturbed low vortexes. The differences in the treatment methods of the five PBL schemes affect the surface layer physical quantities and the middle and upper atmospheres during the middle to late periods of the typhoon. Although QNSE and ACM2 present better simulation results than other schemes, they exhibit a few differences in the internal structure of the typhoon. The results simulated by MYJ are worse, and this method may be unsuitable for studying the formation and development of typhoons.     

Motion near the 3/1 resonance of the planar elliptic restricted three body problem

The global semi-numerical perturbation method proposed by Henrard and Lemaître (1986) for the 2/1 resonance of the planar elliptic restricted three body problem is applied to the 3/1 resonance and is compared with Wisdom's perturbative treatment (1985) of the same problem. It appears that the two methods are comparable in their ability to reproduce the results of numerical integration especially in what concerns the shape and area of chaotic domains. As the global semi-numerical perturbation method is easily adapted to more general types of perturbations, it is hoped that it can serve as the basis for the analysis of more refined models of asteroidal motion. We point out in our analysis that Wisdom's uncertainty zone mechanism for generating chaotic domains (also analysed by Escande 1985 under the name of slow Hamiltonian chaotic layer) is not the only one at work in this problem. The secondary resonance _p = 0 plays also its role which is qualitatively (if not quantitatively) important as it is closely associated with the random jumps between a high eccentricity mode and a low eccentricity mode.