Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

广西官村岩溶溪流中生物地球化学控制的DIC和NO3-昼夜变化研究

为了解岩溶区控制溪流中溶解无机碳(DIC)和NO_3~-昼夜变化的生物地球化学过程以及DIC和NO_3~-日变化量,于2014-07-22~2014-07-24期间,在广西壮族自治区融安县官村溪流中包括地下河出口(CK)和下游雷崖村(LY)设置两个监测点同时对水体物理化学参数以及C、N同位素(δ~(13) CDIC、δ~(15) N-NO_3~-和δ~(18) O-NO_3~-)展开了为期2d的高分辨率昼夜监测采样工作。结果发现CK点各物理化学参数没有表现出昼夜变化,但是LY点Ca2+、DIC以及PCO2表现出明显的昼夜变化规律,即白天下降夜间上升且与DO和pH表现出明显的负相关关系。相对于CK点,在白天水生光合生物光合作用导致LY点DIC下降的同时δ~(13) CDIC上升,而在夜间呼吸作用导致LY点DIC上升的同时δ~(13) CDIC下降且部分时间段要低于CK点δ~(13) CDIC值。溪流中的NH4+在监测期间基本上都在下降而NO_3~-离子在夜间和上午时间段都在上升,δ~(15) N-NO_3~-却表现出下降的趋势,且比较接近δ~(15) N-NO_3~-初始值,而NO_3~-离子在下午时间段出现下降的趋势。结果表明溪流中DIC昼夜变化主要受到水生植物的光合作用和呼吸作用控制,且通过质量平衡方程计算得知溪流中由于光合作用吸收无机碳而转为有机碳的量为0.94kgC/d,这部分有机碳可以形成相对长期稳定的自然C汇。溪流在夜间和上午时间段发生了N的硝化作用,增长量为2.08kgN/d,但在下午时间段(12:00~18:00)发生了N的同化作用,损失量为0.42kgN/d。溪流输出的NO_3~--N的量为1.66kgN/d,表明在富碳、富钙的岩溶溪流中,有利于水生光合生物的生长,促进N的同化作用的发生,从而减少溪流输出NO_3~--N的量,说明岩溶区溪流N的生物地球化学过程可能在昼夜尺度上改变水质。     

A comparison of black claystones,lignites and dump materials from the Maritsa Iztok Coal Basin,Bulgaria, using organic geochemical proxies

Geochemical analysis of dump materials from the opencast Maritsa Iztok mines, Bulgaria, was carried out based on biomarker assemblages of hydrocarbon fractions. Organic matter (OM) and secondary transformations in three representative samples (massive black claystones and materials from the Iztok and Staroselets dump sites) were studied using geochemical proxies.A number of differences were recognised in the respective OM compositions of the samples compared to both published data and between the individual dump samples themselves. The ОM of the studied samples was found to be polar, but also contains some apolar compounds. It consists mainly of resins and asphalthenes. Claystone OM is of the dispersed type, with intense oxidative-reductive interactions in a lacustrine environment resulting in its transformation into an inert material. Dump sample kerogen is of Type II and mixed Type II/III. In all samples, “odd” numbered n-alkanes are found in higher amounts. Diterpenoids (С₁₉, С₂₀) with pimarane, abietane and phyllocladane skeletons are preponderant. Tri- and tetracyclic terpenoids and steranes have been identified in the black claystones OM only. Hopanes are present in low amounts in extractable OM from all three samples. Biomarkers indicate that black claystone OM is formed from aqueous flora, with a minor supply of gymnosperms (mainly G. Sequoia). Iztok Dump OM is structured by higher plants with an aqueous vegetation input. The Staroselets Dump OM formation is assigned to an active microbial reworking of aqueous vegetation and bacteria with a minor coniferous supply. Different geochemical parameters admit anoxic stratified bottom waters for the black claystones with an addition of deep water stagnation for Staroselets sample in a Maritsa Iztok Basin (MIB) aqueous environment.An attempt was also made to track the effect of secondary processes (oxidation, destruction, dearomatisation), temperature, water drainage and wash-out on dump materials. Leaching and weak degradation processes in the MIB dump environment are likely for a time span of ca. 40–50 years, considering the low percentage of short-chain n-alkanes, long-chain prevalence and low Pr/nC₁₇ and Ph/nC₁₈ ratios, with the Iztok Dump sample experiencing more advanced transformations.     

太湖地区HJ-1卫星CCD数据反演气溶胶及大气校正

针对HJ-1卫星CCD数据,利用改进的暗像元法反演气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),再利用反演的AOD对其进行大气校正。将反演的气溶胶与地基太阳光度计数据进行对比验证,发现当反演的AOD值大于0.2时,反演值与地基观测值的相关系数为0.964,符合MODIS业务化反演AOD的精度要求。再将反演得到的气溶胶带入6S辐射传输模型中,对HJ-1卫星CCD数据进行大气校正实验。结果表明,该方法能有效提高HJ-1卫星CCD数据大气校正的精度,更好地复原地物的真实光谱信息。     

Quantification of LST and CO2 levels using Landsat-8 thermal bands on urban environment

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important aspect in global to regional change studies, for control of climate change and balancing of high temperature. Urbanization is one of the influencing factors increasing land surface and atmospheric temperature, by the emission of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO₂, NO and methane). In the present study, LST was derived from Landsat-8 of multitemporal data sets to analyse the spatial structure of the urban thermal environment in relation to the urban surface characteristics and land use–land cover (LULC). LST is influenced by the greenhouse gases i.e. CO₂ plays an important role in increasing the earth’s surface temperature. In order to provide the evidence of influence of CO₂ on LST, the relationship between LST, air temperature and CO₂ was analysed. Landsat-8 satellite has two thermal bands, 10 and 11. These bands were used to accurately to calculate the temperature over the study area. Results showed that the strength of correlation between ground monitoring data and satellite data was high. Based on correlation values of each month April (R² = 0.994), May (R² = 0.297) and June (R² = 0.934), observed results show that band 10 was significantly correlating with air temperature. Relationship between LST and CO₂ levels were obtained from linear regression analysis. band 11 was correlating significantly with CO₂ values in each of the months April (R² = 0.217), May (R² = 0.914) and June, (R² = 0.934), because band 11 is closer to the 15-micron band of CO₂. From the results, it was observed that band 10 can be used for calculating air temperature and band 11 can be used for estimation of greenhouse gases.     

Satellite-measured atmospheric aerosol content in Korea: anthropogenic signals from decadal records

Spatiotemporal characteristics and anthropogenic signals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) distributions over Korea are investigated in this study using AOT time-series data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). AOT observations, a quantitative measure of the atmospheric quality, had significant geographical variations during the study period (2000–2010). Comparing metro cities or counties with similar populations, western regions showed higher AOT values than eastern regions. Particular matter with a diameter < 10 µm (PM₁₀), including aeolian dust or yellow dust, is the primary component of atmospheric aerosols, and their transport into the region has shown a strong seasonal pattern with its peak from March to April and lows from July to September. These seasonal dust patterns, however, did not correspond well to temporal AOT records, which typically reached the maximum level in June nationwide. Rather, widespread regional fire events and humidity showed significant correlations with AOT time-series. This correlation rapidly increased as the range of fire occurrence was extended to the west as far as 115°E. The relative humidity also had a significant correlation with AOT during the month of June. In addition to urban emission of anthropogenic aerosols, regional biomass burning and secondary growth of hygroscopic aerosols are considered important contributors to the degradation of the atmospheric environment during the non-Asian Dust season over the Korean Peninsula.     

滇黔北坳陷寒武系碳酸盐岩古海洋环境特征及地质意义

为厘定滇黔北坳陷寒武系碳酸盐岩古海洋环境,揭示成岩流体与岩溶作用的潜在联系,并预测有利储层发育层段,基于镇雄羊场碳酸盐岩剖面实测及系统取样基础上,采用微量元素、碳氧锶同位素及铸体薄片等分析手段,地球化学与岩石学方法相结合,探讨碳酸盐岩古海洋环境及地质意义。研究结果表明:滇黔北坳陷寒武系清虚洞组-娄山关组整体为海相环境,古海洋温度处于12.82℃~32.84℃之间,主体为温暖或炎热的亚热带气候。海平面具有主体震荡下降的趋势,存在8期海平面变化旋回,发育对应的岩相组合,其同位素演化曲线可作为地层划分依据。微量元素、同位素地球化学及岩石学特征证实娄山关组岩溶作用相对发育,成岩流体混入强氧化性低温大气水,有利储层纵向上主要分布在海平面下降旋回的高部位。     

早白垩世泥炭地净初级生产力及其控制因素--来自二连盆地吉尔嘎郎图凹陷6号煤的证据

现代泥炭地中蕴藏着巨量的碳,泥炭地生产力的高低会影响全球碳循环及全球气候变化。前人对全新世以来泥炭地生产力做了大量研究,但对前第四纪的“深时”阶段的泥炭地生产力则极少涉及,其主要原因是缺少精确的定年方法。以二连盆地吉尔嘎郎图凹陷早白垩世6号煤为例,利用地球物理测井信号进行频谱分析并获得煤层中米兰科维奇旋回周期参数（123 ka（偏心率）:38.1 ka（斜率）:22.1 ka（岁差））,将米兰科维奇旋回作为“深时”地层时间的“度量”工具,计算出6号煤层碳的聚集速率为35.1~38.9 g C/（m2·a）,进一步推算出其所代表的泥炭地的碳聚集速率为46.2~51.2 g C/（m2·a）,净初级生产力（NPP）为231~256 g C/（m2·a）。将该计算结果与全新世同一纬度带泥炭地生产力水平比较,并结合前人研究成果综合分析影响因素,得出早白垩世泥炭地生产力水平主要受温度和大气中二氧化碳含量控制,而这两种因素又与气候相关联,则泥炭地生产力的研究可能对进一步了解古气候提供帮助。     

塔里木盆地麦盖提斜坡奥陶纪地层划分对比及意义

以碳同位素值的波动变化与沉积环境、海平面升降及地层界面突变等地质事件相对应为理论依据,开展碳同位素地层研究,建立了各组值域划分标准,解决碳酸盐岩地层缺乏标准生物化石情况下,地层归属难确定的问题。指出奥陶系自下而上碳同位素曲线呈现稳定-上升-正漂移的过程。其中,下统蓬莱坝组—鹰山组δ~(13)C值范围为(-4.2~-0.2)×10~(-3),始终为负值;中统一间房组δ~(13)C值范围为(-0.4~0.6)×10~(-3),以分布在零值附近为特征;上统恰尔巴克组—良里塔格组δ~(13)C值范围(0.7~3.1)×10~(-3),均为正值。在此基础上,开展了巴楚典型露头剖面与麦盖提斜坡井下奥陶系碳同位素地层与岩石地层对比研究,提出麦盖提斜坡中部及东部断洼区发育上奥陶统,除东部断裂带外,普遍残存下奥陶统顶部泥晶灰岩段。     

黄河三角洲滨海湿地演化过程中的碳埋藏效率及其控制因素

2007年在黄河三角洲布设了一口浅钻ZK4,孔深28.3 m,对获取的岩心样品进行了详细的沉积学观测及含水量、有机碳、总碳和营养成分的实验室分析测试。通过ZK4孔的地层分析,将其划分为7种沉积环境,揭示了滨海湿地地质演化过程。并利用AMS14C测年方法,结合黄河改道的历史记录,运用历史地理学和沉积地质学综合分析的方法对黄河三角洲沉积环境进行了年代划分,并计算了黄河三角洲不同沉积环境沉积物的沉积速率和碳的加积速率。结果表明:总碳和有机碳与除硫和磷元素以外的各营养成分都呈良好的线性相关;碳、氮、磷的加积速率与沉积物的沉积速率呈极显著正相关关系(R0.89,p0.01),沉积物的沉积速率是碳、氮、磷的加积速率的主控因素;虽然现代黄河三角洲沉积物有机碳浓度较低(1%),但由于沉积物的高沉积速率,现代黄河三角洲沉积物有机碳的平均加积速率达到2878.23 g/(m2·a),远高于世界其他高有机碳浓度的湿地,因此是很好的碳汇地质体。