Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO₂ is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO₂ of less than 1 PgC y⁻¹, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO₂ growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

有限区域大气-海浪耦合模式的建立及海表粗糙度参数化试验

利用LINUX操作系统下的进程通讯(IPC)技术将中尺度大气模式MM5(V3)与第三代海浪模式WW3进行双向耦合,建立考虑大气-海浪相互作用的风浪耦合模式,在耦合模式中引入3种海表粗糙度参数化方案,通过对一次热带气旋过程的模拟,研究大气-海浪相互作用对热带气旋系统的影响及耦合模式对海表粗糙度参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:LINUX系统下的进程通讯技术可以方便有效地实现大气和海浪模式的双向耦合,模式运行稳定;耦合模式能够较好的模拟热带气旋的发展和演变过程及其影响下海浪场的分布和演变,模拟结果对海表粗糙度参数化方案较敏感;海浪的反馈作用同时影响了海气间的动力和热力作用过程,不同的海表粗糙度参数化方案下,海浪对两种作用过程不同的影响程度决定了其对气旋系统强度的影响。     

The effect of the wave-induced mixing on the upper ocean temperature in a climate model

The significant underestimation of sea surface temperature （SST） and the temperature in the upper ocean is one of common problems in present climate models. The influence of the wave-induced mixing on SST and the temperature in the upper ocean was examined based on a global climate model. The results from the model coupled with wave-induced mixing showed a significant improvement in the simulation of SST and the temperature in the upper ocean compared with those of the original model without wave effects. Although there has still a cold bias, the new simulation is much closer to the climatology, especially in the northern ocean and tropical ocean. This study indicates that some important physical processes in the accurate simulation of the ocean may be ignored in present climate models, and the wave-induced mixing is one of those factors. Thus, the wave-induced mixing （ or the effect of surface waves） should be incorporated properly into climate models in order to simulate or forecast the ocean, then climate system, more accurately.     

Sorption model for dissolved and particulate aluminium in the Conway estuary, UK

Dissolved Al carried in river water apparently undergoes a fractional removal at the early stages of mixing in the Conway estuary. On the other hand, dissolved Al behaves almost conservatively in high salinity (>13) estuarine waters. In order to understand the geochemistry of Al in these estuarine waters, simple empirical sorption models have been used. Partitioning of Al occurs between solid and solution phases with a distribution coefficient, K_d, which varies from 0.67 × 10⁵ to 3.38 × 10⁶ ml g⁻¹ for suspended particle concentrations of 2–64 mg l⁻¹. The K_d values in general decrease with increasing suspended particulate matter and this tendency termed the “particle concentration effect” is quite pronounced in these waters. The sorption model derived by previous workers for predicting concentrations of dissolved Al with changing suspended sediment loads has been applied to these data. Reasonable fits are obtained for K_d values of 10⁵, 10⁶ and 10⁷ ml g⁻¹ with various values of α. Further, a sorption model is proposed for particulate Al concentrations in these waters that fits the data extremely well defined by a zone with K_d value 10⁷ ml g⁻¹ and C₀ values 16 × 10⁻⁶ mg ml⁻¹ and 92 × 10⁻⁶ mg ml⁻¹. These observations provide strong evidence of sorption processes as key mechanisms influencing the distribution of dissolved and particulate Al in the Conway estuary and present new insight into Al geochemistry in estuaries.     

Coastal environmental assessment and management by ecological simulation in Yeoja Bay, Korea

An eco-hydrodynamic model was used to estimate the carrying capacity of pollutant loads and response of water quality to environmental change in Yeoja Bay, Korea. An energy-system model also was used to simulate the fluctuation in nutrients and organic matter in the bordering wetland. Most water quality factors showed a pulsed pattern, and the concentrations of nutrients and organic matter of seawater increased when input loads of nutrients increased due to freshwater discharge. The well-developed tidal zones and wetlands in the northern area of the bay were highly sensitive to input loads. Residence times of water, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) within the bay were estimated to be about 16 days, 43.2 days, and 50.2 days, respectively. Water quality reacted more sensitively to the effects of nitrogen and phosphorus input than to COD. A plan to reduce the present levels of COD and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) by 20–30% and DIN by at least 50% in pollutant loads is needed for satisfying the target water quality criteria. The natural removal rate of nutrients in wetlands by reeds was assessed to be approximately 10%.     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

Development and validation of a finite element morphological model for shallow water basins

Recognising the importance of understanding sediment dynamics to evaluate the status of a coastal lagoon environment, this work has been focused on the investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes occurring in such basins. In order to describe the lagoon system, a modelling approach combining hydrodynamics, waves and sediment dynamics has been developed. The framework of the numerical model consists of a finite element hydrodynamic model, a third generation finite element spectral wave model and a sediment transport and morphodynamic model for both cohesive and non-cohesive sediments. The model adopts the finite element technique for spatial integration, which has the advantage to describe more accurately complicated bathymetry and irregular boundaries for shallow water areas. The developed model has been applied to test cases and to a very shallow tidal lagoon, the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Numerical results show good agreement with water level, waves and turbidity measurements collected in several monitoring stations inside the Lagoon of Venice. Such a model represents an indispensable tool in analysing coastal problems and assessing morphological impacts of human interference.