湖陆山地复杂地形下近地层风速预报研究

以鄱阳湖区典型湖陆山地复杂地形为试验区域,采用WRF模式MRF和MYJ两种边界层参数化方案,对2010年该区域近地层风速进行高时空分辨率预报,并结合3个测风塔观测资料对预报结果进行检验。结果表明:WRF模式对鄱阳湖区70 m高度风速预报效果较好,预报值能够较好地反映近地层风速变化,且边界层MRF方案预报效果略好于MYJ方案。地形对近地层风速预报影响明显,地形相对平坦的吉山预报效果最好,而地形最为复杂的狮子山预报效果相对较差。不同强度的近地层风速预报效果差异较大,5~25 m·s^-1风速段预报效果明显优于0~5 m·s^-1风速段。位相偏差是造成鄱阳湖区近地层风速预报误差的主要来源,其贡献率在60%以上,而系统偏差和振幅偏差的误差贡献率相对较小,通过线性订正方法可在一定程度上提高该区域风速预报效果。     

A FINITE VOLUME SEMI-IMPLICIT SEMI-LAGRANGIAN SCHEME ON THE YIN-YANG MESH

Designed for grid point systems, the traditional semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit scheme is not mass-conserving and can lead to significant solution errors. In the present study, a finite-volume semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit scheme (hereafter “FVSLSI”) is designed for the Yin-Yang mesh and tested in a barotropic shallow water model in the spherical coordinate system. Three test cases, i.e. the advection of a solid body, a steady state nonlinear zonal geostrophic flow and the deformation flow, are simulated to compare the performance of the FVSLSI with that of the traditional semi-Lagrangian scheme (hereafter “SL”) from perspectives of shape preservation, mass conservation, normalized bias, and convergence rate. Results indicate that the FVSLSI performs better than the SL in mass conservation and shape preservation. The bias by the FVSLSI is smaller than that by the SL, while the rate of convergence by the FVSLSI is larger than that by the SL. The FVSLSI also allows large time step. Therefore, the FVSLSI is suggested to be distributed to communities that are developing atmospheric/oceanic models.     

季风槽环境中暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析与数值预报试验

应用地面降水观测资料、卫星云图、雷达回波以及NCEP再分析资料,对华南沿海受季风槽影响下发生的一次持续性暴雨的中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行分析,并探讨采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行预报的可能性。分析表明,暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成。在相似环境中,不同中尺度对流系统发展形态和水平尺度有较大差异,最大可组织发展成α中尺度对流复合体（MCC）,但一般为β中尺度线状或带状对流系统。对其中发展形态分别表现为椭圆形中尺度对流复合体（MCS-2）和带状β中尺度对流系统（MCS-4）的对比分析发现,对流的起始发展均发生在夜间,与季风槽中低空急流的南风脉动有良好对应关系。基于临近探空资料的诊断发现,被认为对中尺度对流系统组织发展有指示作用的关键物理量如对流有效位能（CAPE）和风垂直切变难以区分不同中尺度对流系统的发展形态和趋势,探空资料的代表性将影响诸如“配料法”等暴雨客观预报方法的建立和应用。利用华南区域中心GRAPES（GRAPES_GZ）数值模式对两个中尺度对流系统进行的模拟预报结果表明,采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行显式预报已成为可能。比较而言,3 km水平分辨率模式可以更好地预报出暴雨的发生,但结果对是否调用对流参数化（CP）方案敏感。尽管不依靠对流参数化方案模式能够较好地预报出中尺度对流系统初始降水的发生,但会过度预报发展成熟后的降水。模式中如何描述中尺度对流系统对流的组织发展机制、如何处理对流参数化方案的“灰色区分辨率”问题需要仔细考虑。      

初始场与云微物理参数方案在飑线数值模拟中的对比研究

采用CM1模式以200 m的高精度水平网格距对一次东北冷涡下的飑线过程进行模拟,采用1 km的水平网格距进行对比试验探究网格距的影响,并通过探空资料的替换与修改研究不稳定能量和垂直风切变对飑线发展的影响。研究表明,水平网格距增大主要使系统演变减缓,强度也有一定的减弱;初始场的不稳定能量减小会使飑线减弱明显,直至无法生成;垂直风切变对飑线的形成影响较小,主要改变了飑线的结构,没有垂直风切变时形成的飑线更为松散。最后的敏感性试验研究了7种云微物理参数方案对飑线内水粒子分布的影响,发现不同的云微物理参数方案会使水粒子的含量和分布出现变化,进一步影响固、液态的降水,飑线模拟采用的NA方案高层冰和雪含量最高,但由于雨和降落到地表的雹、霰含量低,使得累计降水量最小。     

修正WRF次网格地形方案及其对风速模拟的影响

复杂地形区域风场模拟的准确率一直是风能研究领域的难点和重点。WRF模式是目前风能评估领域应用最广泛的天气数值模式之一,但该模式在复杂地形区域存在对平原、山谷风速高估且对山顶风速低估的系统性误差,并有研究建立次网格地形方案以订正误差。而次网格地形方案在不同水平分辨率下常出现错误的修正结果,该文基于高精度地形高程数据分析了方案失效的主要原因,发现其方程组中判断山体形态特征的阈值-20在过低和过高水平分辨率下均失去参考性。针对这一原因,将方案中影响关键参数C_t的地形高度算子与模式水平分辨率进行拟合,形成地形高度算子与水平分辨率相依赖的线性关系,获得不同分辨率下更适合的山体形态阈值。通过与自动气象站10 m风速对比分析了修正前后WRF对低层风速的模拟效果,结果显示:修正后的次网格地形方案能够分别在较低和较高分辨率下,部分矫正原方案错误的订正结果,使低层风速模拟更接近实况。修正后的次网格地形方案可为复杂地形区域开展高分辨率风场模拟提供参考。     

积云对流参数化方案对东亚夏季环流和降水模拟的影响

利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式对东亚夏季区域气候模拟中最常选用的两种积云对流参数化方案进行对比分析,研究积云对流参数化方案选用对大尺度环流模拟的影响。结果表明:Kain-Fritsch（KF）方案对西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）及环流的模拟效果较好,虽然KF方案模拟降水偏多,但是时空分布与TRMM降水分布接近;Grell-Freitas（GF）方案对流加热率过大,从而模拟的南海—菲律宾区域对流异常增强,在南海—菲律宾洋面上的垂直输送异常增大,非绝热加热的范围偏大,导致副高南侧下沉区辐散减弱,抑制了副高北抬西伸,进而影响到水汽输送和季风环流,最终对东亚夏季降水的模拟产生不利影响。修改GF方案对流加热率和干燥率的敏感性试验表明,减小对流加热率和干燥率参数能有效抑制南海—菲律宾区域过强的对流,东亚大尺度环流的模拟得到明显改进。     

甘南拉尔玛矿山环境地质问题的成因分析及防治方案

甘肃是矿产资源大省,矿产开发规模大、强度高。但是,由于有关管理部门的松懈,导致矿山环境地质问题较突出。本次基于对拉尔玛矿山环境地质的实地调查,论述、分析了危害矿山环境地质的因素有地质体结构和人工活动。其中人工活动是主要因素,多是由于在生产过程中不遵守矿山采矿规范和谈漠薄环境生态保护意识,给矿山附近的牧民和牲畜均造成了不同程度的危害,从而导致矿山停业整改。作者结合当地和矿山的实际情况,提出了一些可行、合理、有效的防治方案和措施,以期达到有效恢复矿山环境地质的目的。     

High-order finite volume WENO schemes for the shallow water equations with dry states

The shallow water equations are used to model flows in rivers and coastal areas, and have wide applications in ocean, hydraulic engineering, and atmospheric modeling. These equations have still water steady state solutions in which the flux gradients are balanced by the source term. It is desirable to develop numerical methods which preserve exactly these steady state solutions. Another main difficulty usually arising from the simulation of dam breaks and flood waves flows is the appearance of dry areas where no water is present. If no special attention is paid, standard numerical methods may fail near dry/wet front and produce non-physical negative water height. A high-order accurate finite volume weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) scheme is proposed in this paper to address these difficulties and to provide an efficient and robust method for solving the shallow water equations. A simple, easy-to-implement positivity-preserving limiter is introduced. One- and two-dimensional numerical examples are provided to verify the positivity-preserving property, well-balanced property, high-order accuracy, and good resolution for smooth and discontinuous solutions.     

Numerical solution of the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the step

Free-surface flows are usually modelled by means of the Shallow-water Equations: this system of hyperbolic equations exhibits a source term which is proportional to the product of the water depth by the bed slope, and which takes into account the effect of gravity onto fluid mass. Recently, much attention has been paid to the case in which bottom discontinuities are present in the physical domain to be represented: in this case, it is difficult to define the non-conservative product in the distributional sense. Here, the discontinuous-bottom Shallow-water Equations with hydrostatic pressure distribution at the bed step (Bernetti et al., 2006) are discussed in the context of the theory of Dal Maso et al. (1995) [9]; finally, a first-order numerical scheme is presented, which is consistent for regular solutions, and which is able to capture contact discontinuities at bottom steps. Numerous tests are presented to show the feasibility of the scheme and its ability to converge to the exact solution in the cases of smooth as well as discontinuous bed profiles.     

浅谈《省界详图集》的编制技术特点

《省界详图集》是一套大型的、系统的、规范化的省级行政区域界线专题图集,具有权威性、准确性和实用性。结合该图集的生产实际,概述了图集的编制意义和内容,详细阐述了图集编制技术方案的关键环节和技术特点。