集成奇异谱分析和自回归滑动平均预测日本近海海平面变化

本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）和SSA+自回归滑动平均（Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA）方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年（2014—2018）升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a^-1,预测结果较为理想.     

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.     

Seasonal variations and mechanism for environmental control of NEE of CO_2 concerning the Potentilla fruticosa in alpine shrub meadow of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The study by the eddy covariance technique in the alpine shrub meadow of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau in 2003 and 2004 showed that the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) exhibited noticeable diurnal and annual variations, with more distinct daily changes during the warmer seasons. The CO2 emission of the shrub ecosystem culminated in April and September while the CO2 absorption capacity reached a maximum in July and August. The absorbed carbon dioxide during the two consecutive years was 231.4 and 274.8 g CO2·m-2 respectively, yielding an average of 253.1 gCO2·m-2 per year: that accounts for a large proportion of absorbed CO2 in the region. Obviously, the diurnal carbon flux was negatively related to temperature, radiation and other atmospheric factors. Still, minute discrepancies in kurtosis and duration of carbon emission/absorption were detected between 2003 and 2004. It was found that the CO2 flux in the daytime was similarly affected by photosynthetic photon flux density in both years. Temperature appears to be the most important determinant of CO2 flux: specifically, the high temperature during the plant growing season inhibits the carbon absorption capacity. One potential explanation is that soil respiration is enhanced under such condition. Analysis of biomass revealed that the annual net carbon fixed capacity of aboveground and belowground biomass was 544.0 in 2003 and 559.4 g Cm"2 in 2004, which coincided with the NEE absorption capacity (63.1 g C·m-2 in 2003 and 74.9 g C·m-2 in 2004) in the corresponding plant growing season.     

一种建筑物倾斜测量的方法

本文提出一种基于无反射棱镜全站仪的建筑物倾斜测量方法,通过推导、精度分析和实例计算,证明了此方法的可行性,具有一定的实用意义.     

煤矿瓦斯浓度与气象因子相关分析及预报模型

对山西省大同市地方煤矿1979~1997年发生的90起重大典型事故案例进行分析,发现瓦斯事故是发生次数最多,占事故总数的33%,而其造成的灾害也最重。瓦斯浓度的高低与气象因子具有一定的相关性,通过统计计算,得出了旬瓦斯浓度与旬气温、旬气压的相关关系,建立了旬瓦斯浓度预报模型和逐日瓦斯浓度等级预报模型,预报拟合率和试报效果较好。利用该研究成果,结合中短期天气预报,可以提前预报瓦斯浓度的变化趋势,对于搞好煤矿安全生产的管理,及时加大通风,减少事故发生具有重要意义。     

2004年气象因子对棉花生长的影响

针对2004年石河子气象因子对棉花减产的影响进行分析,得出棉花减产因素为:春季土墒、花期暴雨、铃期低温、病虫害、早霜,并提出了相应的对策。     

新疆气象台站迁移及其对气候变化分析的影响

由于诸多原因,如城乡规划建设、外部环境遭受破坏和工作环境需要改善等,新疆现有105个国家基准气候站、国家基本气象站和一般气象站从1950年起到2004年,搬迁达73个站150次,占全区地面气象站总数的70%。气象台站搬迁在某种程度上会影响观测数据的连续性和一致性,特别对于气候变化分析工作,更要求数据的历史延续性。本文分析了新疆台站迁移状况以及台站迁移后对数据连续性的影响,为使用这些数据的研究人员分析研究新疆气候变化提供了很好的参考信息。     

历史纸质气象档案数字化技术策略初步分析

利用安全扫描和光学字符识别技术实现气象档案数字化是对纸质气象历史档案拯救和开发利用的有效途径。该文在对数字化技术进行调研和试验的基础上, 提出了历史纸质气象档案数字化的建设思路, 针对气象档案记录内容的特点, 对OCR (optical character recognition) 手写体数字识别技术应用进行了分析, 提出了气象档案OCR识别的解决策略, 为业界的纸质气象档案数字化建设提供一种技术思路和有效的技术参考。     

气象因素对标枪成绩的影响分析

气象条件对体育比赛有着重要的作用,温度、湿度、降水、风等各种气象因素对体育比赛项目都会产生一定的影响。使用自20世纪80年代以来国内外有关气象条件对标枪项目的影响、标枪训练与投掷的技术标准、标枪项目的生物力学等方面的文献资料和有关标枪风洞实验的有关数据,重点分析了风力和风向对标枪投掷的影响。结果表明:在风速较小(顺风和侧风时风速小于6 m/s,在逆风时风速小于3 m/s)的情况下,一定的风速使标枪的飞行距离稍有增加,当风速超过6 m/s以后,飞行距离随风速的加大而减少。另外,气温和湿度对标枪运动的影响主要是在对运动员的身体状态方面,表现为对运动员的心理和生理的影响,影响运动员水平的发挥,降水、大雾等则表现为能见度差,造成比赛中止甚至取消。     

Chinese Surveying and Control Network for Earth-Orbit Satellites and Deep Space Detection

Introduction Astorealizetheprojectofspatialgeodesyby geodeticsatellites,itisnecessarytoestablisha satellitecontrollingandsurveyingnetwork(SC SN)totrack,tosurvey,toremotelycontroland tocommunicatewithearth orbitsatellite,forre alizingtheprojectofdeepspaced…