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151.
Leiming Ma 《地球科学进展》1986,35(6):551-560
Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast. 相似文献
152.
The characteristics of simulated air flow over Andaman Islands are studied with a two-dimensional version of the University
of Virginia meso scale model (UVMM). Using the observed synoptic data as initial conditions, 24 hr simulations are obtained
for a day each in April and November. These days are chosen to study the variations in the simulated flow pattern under different
synoptic conditions including precipitation effects. A large scale condensation scheme is employed to consider the effect
of latent heat release on the perturbations. The results show that the latent heat released by condensation strengthens the
intensity of perturbations and the topography accelerates the arrival of sea breeze by about an hour. The model-simulated
results, given in graphical form, are discussed and compared with available observations. 相似文献
153.
A large sample of summertime data from the McGill Radar Weather Observatory was analyzed to determine the variation with altitude
of the horizontal extent of individual rainshowers. For echoes defined by a reflectivity factor of 39 dBz (equivalent to a
rainfall rate of about 10 mm/h) it was found that the mean area of the total population of echoes decreases linearly with
altitude from approximately 20 km2 at 2 km to 11 km2 at 8 km. Subsets of the total population were investigated, consisting of only the echoes penetrating the altitudes of 6,
7, and 8 km. On the average these relatively tall echoes are much greater in horizontal extent than the total population.
Whereas the sizes of the total population of echoes at any altitude are distributed approximately exponentially in terms of
the square root of area, the sizes of the “survivors” that extend to high altitudes may be described by the gamma distribution
with a mean value decreasing approximately linearly with height above 3 km and a dispersion of 0.55. Some characteristics
are also reported for echoes defined by reflectivities of 31 dBz and 47 dBz. Estimates are given of the fraction of the total
area in a horizontal plane that contains echoes in each of these categories. 相似文献
154.
浅谈自动气象站的防雷设计要点 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
运用当代防雷领域中的有关理论,对自动气象站容易遭受雷击的原因和途径进行分析,提出了自动气象站的防雷设计要点。 相似文献
155.
S. Abhilash Someshwar Das S. R. Kalsi M. Das Gupta K. Mohankumar John P. George S. K. Banerjee S. B. Thampi D. Pradhan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1491-1509
Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall
is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective
cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy
in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing
the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale
and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using
retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather
radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR)
system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005.
In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out.
The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization
and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified
further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of
these convective storms can be improved. 相似文献
156.
多部多普勒雷达同步探测三维风场反演系统 总被引:18,自引:5,他引:18
“我国重大气候和天气灾害的形成机理与预测理论研究”项目首次启用双多普勒雷达组网同步观测,如何从同步观测的暴雨资料中反演三维场,具有重要的理论和现实意义,根据项目需要,建立了国内首套多部多普勒天气雷达同步探测三维风场反演软件系统,并反演出2001年7月13日由双多普勒雷达同步观测到的一个中β尺度暴雨系统的三维风场,结果显示,该三维风场结构合理,系统能满足外场试验的要求。 相似文献
157.
以大降水过程中触发高潜能量释放的天气系统为背景条件,以高潜能场为起报信息,对40个大降水个例进行统计、分析和归纳,概括出阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中,高潜能场的时空变化特征,从中得出预报阿勒泰夏季大降水的新指标,进一步提高了大降水预报的准确率。 相似文献
158.
铁路沿线灾害性天气监测、预测、预警系统 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
针对铁路三防(防风,防沙,防洪)的需要,结合大风监测系统建设的实际,对恶劣天气气候条件下,如何保障列车运行安全进行了探讨,并提出铁路沿线灾害性天气监测,预测,预警系统。 相似文献
159.
The flash flood that occurred on 12–13 November 1999 in meridional France is documented. This event caused 35 fatalities and severe damage to property as rainfall totals locally exceeded 550 mm in 24 h and 620 mm in 48 h.The main issue of the present study is to discuss how realistically the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution of this flash flood event can be represented with present state-of-the-art operational and research modeling frameworks. The predictability of the present event for different forecast ranges is investigated and sensitivity studies are conducted in order to discuss the influence of model physics (convection, microphysics), atmospheric moisture analysis and Mediterranean sea surface temperature forcing on the quality of the results. It is shown that the present event could be reasonably predicted on forecast ranges of 2–3 days as it was essentially determined by strong moisture advection from the Mediterranean coupled with frontal and orographical lifting. However, precipitation scores show significant sensitivity to both analysis errors and model physics. 相似文献
160.
Renzo Bechini Dario Giaiotti Agostino Manzato Fulvio Stel Stefano Micheletti 《Atmospheric Research》2001,56(1-4)
On the morning of June 4th 1999, a severe weather event took place in San Quirino, a small village of Friuli-Venezia Giulia in the northeast of Italy. This village is located near the piedmont of the Alps, 40 km west from Udine and 60 km north from Venice.Around 0900 UTC (1100 local time), a thunderstorm with an intense hail fall affected the area of San Quirino. A few minutes later (around 0920 UTC, source: a farmer), a funnel cloud from a cumulonimbus touched the ground, producing damages to houses, trees and sheds. The damaged area was quite narrow (about 300 m) and short (less than 10 km). No injuries to people were reported.In spite of the smallness of the area interested by the phenomenon, this storm is studied here starting from the synoptic scale, moving to the mesoscale and finishing with the storm scale, trying to underline its characteristics. These analyses, especially those coming from the Doppler radar images, bring us to the conclusion that the San Quirino episode was produced by a supercell storm. 相似文献