Development and behaviour of a radar-based operational tool for hailstorms identification

Hailstorms are a common meteorological phenomenon in Spain which causes substantial economic damage especially in spring and summer. During 2000 and 2001, a radar-based application for convective monitoring was developed at STAP (Forecasting and Analysis Techniques Department); in order to improve this nowcasting tool, it is needed to include an advanced procedure to estimate the presence of hail as a complementary module in the operational application. A preliminary study, carried out during 2001, showed that the Waldvogel technique, VIL (vertical integrated liquid) density and the hail detection algorithm (HDA) are the methodologies which proved more accurate in our latitudes.Throughout the spring and summer of 2001, all available information about hail events (time, place and hail size) and about storms without hail was used for tuning an experimental module to detect severe and non-severe hailstorms, taking into account the selected algorithms. During 2002, further information about storms was gathered in order to assess the behaviour of the developed hail module. Afterwards, a new module calibration was carried out with the information of the complete storms data set of 2001 and 2002. With this new calibration, the hail module became an operational tool during the spring and summer of 2003. Currently, the verification of the operational module using the data from the storms in 2003 is being elaborated. The aim of this work is to put forward the calibration procedure carried out, the verification results of 2002, and the performance of the hail estimate module in selected cases during 2003 in Spain.     

陕西省十流域面雨量预报系统

黑海到里海的强暖平流致使西伯利亚高压脊经向发展，并建立横槽，横槽北侧的东北气流引导超极地冷空气和西欧东移的冷空气在蒙古国聚积加强，形成了强冷高压、强冷平流；横槽2次转竖引导强冷空气迅猛向南爆发，形成大范围寒潮天气过程；与此次寒潮相伴的北方沙尘暴是蒙古气旋与地面冷高压之间的气压梯度剧增造成的，高空西风急流通过动量下传引起地面大风，是此次强沙尘暴产生的动力条件，在沙尘暴爆发区有南北风的强风切变，促进了沙尘暴的发展。     

和田河流域棉蚜大发生原医及防治与气象服务

从和田河流域棉蚜越冬基数、气候条件、作物布局及发育期、防治措施、品种特点等方面，分析了和田河流域棉蚜大发生的原因，结果表明气候条件与棉蚜大发生关系十分密切，作物布局及发育期和防治措施也是棉蚜泛滥成灾的主要因素，提出了棉蚜防治的各项技术措施与气象服务。     

柳州新一代天气雷达通风系统的改进及应用

在柳州新一代天气雷达建设过程中，发现其通风系统存在不足及缺陷，通过分析其通风系统的设计及安装原理，提出了改进的措施，并应用到实际当中，取得了很好的效果。     

广西自动气象站平行观测资料质量评估

对广西2004年投入运行的39个自动气象站的自动观测资料与人工观测资料进行对比分析,形成了各个观测要素的质量评估,并对两种观测资料差异的原因进行了初步探讨。     

自动站与人工观测降水量差值的成因分析

通过自动站与人工站在降水量观测差值的对比,对差值原因进行了分析。     

《卫星水汽图像和位势涡度场在天气分析和预报中的应用》导读建设中尺度天气业务平台的若干科学技术问题Ⅰ： 科学问题与基本架构

针对要建设中尺度天气业务平台所涉及的科学技术问题进行了深入的研讨,在此基础上提出解决这些科学技术问题必须采用的新技术与新理论,从而提出中尺度天气业务平台的建设思路和总体架构。     

晋中秋白菜生长后期冻害天气预报研究及对策

依据秋白菜冻害发生前不同的天气条件,将冻害分为干冷型和湿冷型2种类型,并针对秋白菜的生理特点及对气象观测资料的研究,归纳出2型的冻害气象指标。在反查了大量的历史天气图基础上,选取08时天气图上某一范围作为预报关键区,建立了2型冻害的72h、48h、24h各预报时效的进型条件、起报条件和消空指标,综合组成了秋白菜的冻害预报系统。在1992年～1999年的试报中,各预报时效准确率平均达86%,取得了较满意得效果。     

集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用

总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。集合敏感性分析也被应用于分析台风/飓风的温带气旋转换过程的不确定性。在对2019年美国首个主要登陆台风Dorian的分析中发现,加拿大CMC的集合预报主要不确定性来自于强度的不确定性,而这个不确定性与初始时刻的大尺度环流型有关,较连贯的信号可以追溯至东北太平洋的前倾槽。而NCEP和ECMWF的不确定性主要在于气旋位置的东北—西南向移动,而敏感性主要和飓风系统本身(即其北部低压区和中纬度槽)的锁相有关。分析结果进一步验证了集合敏感性分析对诊断模式之间的不一致性,以及模式成员之间不一致性的不确定性来源和发展过程的可靠性。集合敏感性分析方法综合了集合预报、资料同化和敏感性分析,因此对于资料同化技术改进、诊断模式误差(或者缺陷)、附加(目标)观测最优策略,以及评估观测对预报的影响等都有重要意义。同时可以更有效地利用集合预报信息,帮助预报员提高情景意识,最终减少高影响天气预报中的决策失误。     

Intercomparisons of land-surface parameterizations coupled to a limited area forecast model

The goal of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is to improve the understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the continental surface in climate and weather forecast models. In PILPS Phase 4(b), selected schemes are coupled to the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) developed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. To facilitate the comparison of PILPS schemes' behavior within LAPS, a single mode of coupling is selected: explicit coupling. This type of coupling is more flexible and avoids most of the problems raised when interchanging the surface schemes. Exploratory tests are conducted. Initially, experiments are run in which the land-surface schemes use the same parameters as in their original host models. Then, in other runs, the most important surface parameters are set constant in an attempt to reduce the scatter amongst the schemes' results. In order to understand the impact of initialisation of soil moisture on the schemes' results some extreme cases (wet and dry) are performed. The partitioning between surface fluxes is studied as well as the soil moisture budget. Both regional and local results are analysed. Sensitivity between LSS is found in the precipitation field with rainfall over the Australian continent altering by about 20%, but no significant change is found in the net radiation. The scatter in the surface energy fluxes amongst the schemes is large (up to 300 W m⁻² locally, during the daytime peak) but is seldom affected by the choice of surface parameters. The dynamical range of flux partitioning between extremely dry and wet initialisation varies strongly amongst the schemes. Some major shortcoming with the BUCKET approach are seen in the re-evaporation of convective precipitation over dry land, in the very large evaporation from wet surfaces and the diurnal cycle of surface temperature.