中国华北地区冬季降水异常特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系

利用1951—2012年中国冬季160站降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA海温资料,分析了中国华北地区冬季降水的异常变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系。结果表明:华北地区冬季降水主要呈现为全区一致变化的特征,且年际变率较大,具有2~4 a的年际变化周期。降水异常偏多(少)年,西伯利亚高压偏弱(强),阿留申低压偏弱(强),850 h Pa上华北地区盛行的西北风较弱(强),控制该地区的东亚冬季风偏弱(强),该地区有偏南(北)风距平,500 h Pa上东亚槽脊系统偏弱(强)。影响华北地区冬季降水的异常水汽主要来源于南海及其以东的西太平洋。前期夏季日本以东的西风漂流区、同期冬季近海的黄渤海区域的海温均与中国华北地区冬季降水存在显著的正相关关系。     

A LIMITED-LENGTH-SCALE k-ε MODEL FOR THE NEUTRAL AND STABLY-STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

Analytical and numerical models of the neutral and stably-stratifiedatmospheric boundary layer are reviewed. Theoretical arguments andcomputational models suggest that a quasi-steady state is attainable in aboundary layer cooled from below and it is shown how this may be incorporatedwithin a time-steady, one-dimensional model. A new length-scale-limitedk- model is proposed for flows where a global maximum mixing length isimposed by the finite boundary-layer depth or, in stably-stratifiedconditions, by the Obukhov length, whilst still reducing to a form consistentwith the logarithmic law in the surface layer. Simulations compare favourablywith data from the Leipzig experiment and from Cardington airfield inEngland.     

大气科学发展的回顾与展望

回顾了20世纪大气科学的发展历程和所取得的重要成就。就20世纪这100年中大气探测技术、大气环流与大尺度动力学、数值天气预报和大气环流数值试验、大气物理、中小尺度气象学、大气环境和大气化学、中层大气、气候系统动力学、气候预测和全球变化等方面所取得重要研究进展和学术成就作了系统的回顾；并对21世纪初大气科学研究发展的趋势作了展望。     

Episodic fluid flow as a trigger for Miocene‐Pliocene slope instability on the Utgard High,Norwegian Sea

Mass wasting is triggered on many continental slopes by a number of mechanisms, including seismic shaking, high sedimentation rates, the presence of weak geological units and gas hydrate dissociation. In this study, the morphology of a Late Miocene–Early Pliocene mass‐transport complex (MTC) on the Utgard High is unravelled and discussed in relation to possible trigger mechanisms. The approach used here includes 3D seismic interpretation and the analysis of variance attribute maps. The interpreted MTC is located on the crest and flanks of the Utgard High and is composed of three mass‐transport deposits with seismic characters varying from transparent and chaotic seismic facies at the base to slightly deformed layers composed of mounds and rafted blocks in the middle and chaotic to transparent reflections at the top. Lithologically, the MTC consists predominantly of claystone with high gamma ray and low density and resistivity values, demonstrating that the associated mounds represent remobilized ooze sediments. A vertical stack of six magmatic sills emplaced from 55.6 to 56.3 Ma into the Upper Cretaceous shales is interpreted at depths of 3,000–5,500 ms two‐way travel time (TWTT). In association with these magmatic sills are several hydrothermal vent complexes that interacted with the top MTC horizon, signifying that episodic and secondary fluid‐venting events might be the principal mechanism facilitating mass wasting in the study area. In addition, the remobilization of ooze sediments into mounds is hypothesized to be dependent on fluids and clayey layers. As a corollary of this work, the importance of relict and recurrent episodes of fluid flow in the Vøring Basin and their influence on the geotechnical integrity of the overburden and later mass wasting is established.     

An Abrupt Change in Tropospheric Temperature Gradient and Moisture Transport Over East Asia in the Late 1990s

ABSTRACT

Previous studies have shown that the recent summer climate (precipitation in particular) over East Asia is varying significantly. Here we extend the study to April, May, and June (AMJ) or the seasonal transition period associated with the onset of the summer monsoon. It is found that the average 1000–400?hPa AMJ tropospheric temperature (TT) experienced a sudden change at the end of the twentieth century. The change has a dipolar modal structure, with one pole over countries in Central Asia (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.) and the other over the Tibetan Plateau. The difference in the TT between the centres of the two poles (?TT), which characterizes the zonal gradient of the TT over Asia, has seen a significant reduction since 1999. The causal relations of ?TT with the local circulation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), surface shortwave flux (SSWF), precipitation, etc. have been investigated using a newly developed rigorous causality analysis, which unambiguously reveals a one-way causality from ?TT to each of OLR, SSWF, and precipitation.     

Reducing fugitive methane emissions from the North American oil and gas sector: a proposed science-policy framework

The shale gas boom in the United States spurred a shift in electricity generation from coal to natural gas. Natural gas combined cycle units emit half of the CO₂ to produce the same energy as a coal unit; therefore, the market trend is credited for a reduction in GHG emissions from the US power sector. However, methane that escapes the natural gas supply chain may undercut these relative climate benefits. In 2016, Canada, the United States and Mexico pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025. This article reviews the science-policy landscape of methane measurement and mitigation relevant for meeting this pledge, including changes in US policy following the 2016 presidential election. Considerable policy incoherence exists in all three countries. Reliable inventories remain elusive; despite government and private sector research efforts, the magnitude of methane emissions remains in dispute. Meanwhile, mitigation efforts vary significantly. A framework that integrates science and policy would enable actors to more effectively inform, leverage and pursue advances in methane measurement and mitigation. The framework is applied to North America, but could apply to other geographic contexts.

Key policy insights

• The oil and gas sector’s contribution to atmospheric methane concentrations is becoming an increasingly prominent issue in climate policy.

• Efforts to measure and control fugitive methane emissions do not presently proceed within a coherent framework that integrates science and policy.

• In 2016, the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025.

• The 2016 presidential election in the United States has halted American progress at the federal level, suggesting a heavier reliance on industry and subnational efforts in that country.

• Collectively or individually, the countries, individual agencies, or private stakeholders could use the proposed North American Methane Reduction framework to direct research, enhance monitoring and evaluate mitigation efforts, and improve the chances that continental methane reduction targets will be achieved.

     

“ 中欧班列”陆路运输腹地范围测算与枢纽识别

自“一带一路”战略实施以来,中国各地政府大力推进中欧国际班列运输,试图改变传统的对外贸易运输体系,强化提升新欧亚大陆桥运输作用。然而,设施联通、运输价格、货源及复杂的地缘政治环境等问题仍然是制约中欧班列发展的重要因素。为此,本文在分析“中欧班列”运营现状及存在问题基础上,提出实现其高频率常态运营的“轴-辐”运输组织模式。通过构建高、中、低三种运价方案,利用距离—经济成本分析法划分“中欧班列”主要出境口岸的经济腹地范围;并综合考虑各城市的铁路技术指标、集疏运能力和货源—成本等因素,从全国尺度识别出“中欧班列”组织的枢纽城市。     

中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析

本文基于人口普查数据和路网数据,利用空间滞后回归模型和耦合协调度模型等,对中国县域城镇化率的道路交通影响及其空间耦合协同性进行分析,研究表明：①中国县域低城镇化水平的县(区)主要集中在传统农区、集中连片贫困山区、高寒经济欠发达区。经济发展水平与人力资源空间上的错位,致使经济欠发达地区的人口倒挂,异地城市化特征显著;②中国县(区)道路交通优势度宏观上呈现出东西部区域差异和交通枢纽与外围区域的差异,“点—轴”地域结构特征显著,县域道路交通优势度数值呈现偏正态分布;③道路交通是城镇间和城镇与区域间联系的核心纽带和产业转型升级发展的传输廊道,开放式的道路系统增强了农村生产要素非农化转型的市场可介入性,对县域城镇化发展有积极作用。高速公路出口、火车站的布局对城镇化影响和带动农村要素非农化作用较为明显;④中国县域交通优势度与城镇化率耦合协调度分级分布为偏正态分布,城镇化发展与交通优势度相互影响显著,呈一定的双向耦合性。     

琼州海峡南岸海岸动力地貌研究

岬湾相间的琼州海峡南岸在海岸动力条件作用下,岸滩发生侵蚀或堆积,特别是南岸中部的南渡江三角洲沿岸岸滩演变剧烈。该文从海岸动力地貌的角度,对琼州海峡南岸的海岸动力特征、泥沙运动以及岸滩演变进行分析。根据海峡南部三维潮流场数值模拟结果,结合经验公式初步分析潮流引起的泥沙运移速率和方向,得到岸外水域总的泥沙运移趋势为从西向东。根据波浪动力计算分析沿岸泥沙运移,探讨沙质岸滩的动态与地貌演变之间的关系,得出海峡南岸海岸地貌演变与盛行的NE和NNE向风浪有密切关系,岸滩的演变过程主要受制于这两个方向的风浪及其引起的泥沙沿岸运移。     

直立堤前海床的局部冲刷

对不规则波作用下直立堤前海床的局部冲刷进行了研究。研究了由于波浪作用导致床面的底沙运动,从而造成提前海床的局部冲刷,即所谓的“相对粒沙”的情况。报导了;(1)堤前海床面为水平、堤下无基床情况下的堤前局部冲刷,以及堤下有明基床时基床尺度对堤前局部冲刷的影响;(2)堤前海床面为斜坡面时堤前的局部冲刷,以及当堤下有明基床时基床尺度对堤前局部冲刷的影响;(3)从波浪作用下床面边界层的理论分析出发,对于在不规则波作用下,离堤面愈远处的冲刷坑深度愈小的事实给出了解释。