Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

视电阻率曲线在研究聚煤盆地沉积环境分析及聚煤规律中的应用

分析聚煤盆地沉积环境,研究聚煤盆地煤层分布规律,对指导煤田预测和指导勘探工作有着重要的作用。充分利用数字测井的视电阻率曲线来分析、解释原始沉积环境,研究聚煤盆地的煤层分布特点,具有一定的现实意义。     

Open source, spatial analysis, and activity-travel behaviour research: capabilities of the aspace package

This paper reports on recent experience with the development of aspace, an Open Source (OS) library for the geographic visualization and analysis of activity-travel behaviour. The paper begins with an overview of recent progress with respect to the convergence of Open Source technology, spatial analysis, and travel behaviour research. The remainder of the paper focuses on aspace; a collection of functions that, when combined with data describing the geographical location of daily activities, can be used to visualize and describe spatial properties of individual and household activity spaces. These properties include: size, orientation, shape, and the geographical dispersion of activity locations contained within the activity space. Several planar geometries are used to transform measurable spatial properties into intuitive objects for visualizing spatial patterns of activity participation. Experiments are conducted, using data from the first wave of the 2003 Toronto Travel Activity Panel Survey, to demonstrate the potential application of aspace for basic and applied policy-based research into activity-travel behaviour. The toolkit is distributed as a downloadable ‘package’ from the Open Source R Project for Statistical Computing.      

长江流域沿江镉异常源追踪与定量评估的方法技术研究:以长江流域安徽段为例

长江全流域性的Cd异常是被中国正在进行的多目标地球化学调查发现的重大生态环境问题。以长江流域安徽段为研究对象,对沿江镉异常源追踪与定量评估的方法技术进行了系统研究。通过对安徽段长江干流及其主要支流悬浮物中元素含量的测量查明:悬浮物是流域内重金属元素大跨度迁移的主要载体;Cd在悬浮物中的富集程度远远大于其他重金属元素,这或许正是Cd可以形成沿江流域性异常的主要原因;长江干流悬浮物中重金属元素含量的变化明显受到沿江支流的影响。安徽段长江干流及其主要支流重金属元素输出通量定量计算结果表明:秋蒲河是安徽段重金属元素输出通量最大的支流,每年在安徽段长江两岸土壤中沉积下约4.45t的Cd。利用悬浮物加密测量、1∶5万土壤测量和岩石测量对顺安河流域Cd异常源追踪结果显示:内生金属矿床特别是铅锌矿是悬浮物中Cd的最大的供应源。采用河漫滩沉积物分层采样技术和同位素测年技术,初步恢复了研究区Cd等重金属元素沉积和污染的地球化学历史,对研究区Cd等重金属元素异常的未来演变趋势进行了预警预测。     

青藏高原北部新生代陆相盆地石油地质条件及勘探前景

青藏高原北部陆相盆地中烃源岩发育层位包括始新统风火山组、渐新统雅西措组和中新统五道梁组。古近系雅西措组烃源岩,特别是灰岩属于中好烃源岩范畴,有机质类型较好,且烃源岩主体处于成熟阶段,是藏北高原新生代陆相盆地主力烃源岩的发育层位。陆相盆地储集岩较发育,储层较丰富,发育层位包括风火山组和雅西措组,其中雅西措组是储层主力分布层位。对测区分析数据表明：通天河盆地具备一定规模的生油岩厚度,而且有机质丰度为沱沱河地区最高,表明其勘探前景较好。     

大民屯凹陷烃源岩有机质丰度的恢复

烃源岩有机质丰度的恢复具有重要的现实和理论意义。笔者在对比多种方法的基础上,对大民屯凹陷的烃源岩的有机质丰度进行了恢复。     

Heat flow and crustal thermal structure in the Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith,south India

The Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith in south India is exposed at different crustal levels grading from greenschist facies in the north through amphibolite and granulite facies in the south along a ∼400 km long segment in the Dharwar craton. Two areas, Pavagada and Magadi, located in the Main Mass of the batholith, best represent the granitoid of the greenschist and amphibolite facies crustal levels respectively. Heat flow estimates of 38 mW m⁻² from Pavagada and 25 mW m⁻² from Magadi have been obtained through measurements in deep (430 and 445 m) and carefully sited boreholes. Measurements made in four boreholes of opportunity in Pavagada area yield a mean heat flow of 39 ± 4 (s.d.) mW m⁻², which is in good agreement with the estimate from deep borehole. The study, therefore, demonstrates a clear-cut heat flow variation concomitant with the crustal levels exposed in the two areas. The mean heat production estimates for the greenschist facies and amphibolite facies layers constituting the Main Mass of the batholith are 2.9 and 1.8 μW m⁻³, respectively. The enhanced heat flow in the Pavagada area is consistent with the occurrence of a radioelement-enriched 2-km-thick greenschist facies layer granitoid overlying the granitoid of the amphibolite facies layer which is twice as thick as represented in the Magadi area. The crustal heat production models indicate similar mantle heat flow estimates in the range 12–14 mW m⁻², consistent with the other parts of the greenstone-granite-gneiss terrain of the Dharwar craton.     

应用生烃动力学法研究川东上二叠统烃源岩生烃史

现今川东上二叠统烃源岩生烃史研究具有局限性.首先,没有对上二叠统Ⅰ-Ⅱ1型灰岩生油、Ⅲ型泥岩的生气史分开评价;其次,海相镜质组反射率通过拟合公式换算成镜质体反射率评价烃源岩成熟度具有局限性.针对上述不足,笔者通过热模拟实验,利用化学动力学方法,标定出两类源岩生油、生气的动力学参数,并结合川东地区的埋藏史及热史,模拟出源岩有机质的成烃转化率曲线.研究表明:上二叠统灰岩、泥岩有机质在距今200 Ma和190 Ma分别进入了生油、生气门限,而在距今170 Ma和140 Ma生烃结束.     

The paleoclimatic records and the relevance with the formation of hydrocarbon source rocks:A case study of Huanghekou depression,Bohaiwan basin

Bohaiwan basin, covering an area of 200 000 km², is one of the most important oil-bearing basins in Eastern China. Rifting processes formed the basin, and two evolution phases can be recognized. The rifting phase developed in Paleogene, and post-rifting phase occurred in Neogene. More than 200 oil fields have been found in the onshore and offshore area in Bohaiwan basin in recent years. The distribution of the oil fields is closely related to the rich hydrocarbon depressions, and the Huanghekou depression is one of these rich hydrocarbon depressions. A number of large and medium-sized oil and gas fields have been found in this area, such as BZ25-1, BZ34 etc., and the hydrocarbon was mainly from the Huanghekou depression. The formation of rich hydrocarbon source rocks depended on the tectonic setting of rapid subsidence, favorable paleoclimatic conditions and paleolimnology environments. The effects of paleoclimatic condition on hydrocarbon source rocks are the focus of this paper. __________ Translated from Geological Bulletin of China, 2007, 26(7): 830–840 [译自: 地质通报]